Reese Kaplan -- July Wins or Status Quo Can Lead to Buying

To buy or to sell may very well depend on the record during the next ten playing days.  That conjecture may sound simplistic, but you get to certain points in a season where solid decisions need to be made.

Right now with the All Star break in the rear view mirror it would appear that the club is on a positive upswing.  While not delving into any specific game or play
er, the issue of greatest concern is the record.  On July 19th the Mets find themselves owning a very surprising 49-46 record, 3 games over .500 and a stunning turnaround from the 11 games under .500 the Mets found themselves sporting what seems like an eternity ago but it was during this 2024 season.

Now going into this 10-game stretch the Mets could propel and reinforce their tenure as a player in the post season.  The upcoming games against the Marlins should be easier than the couple against the Yankees, but the Marlins have often surprisingly played competitively.  The Yankees are a more flamboyant and intense kind of competition, but surprises happen there as well.  

Never forget that the very first interleague game was one by hardly stellar Dave Mlicki of the Mets.  Throw in the following four games against arch rival Atlanta Braves and finishing up the month with a pair against the Twins.  If you go by record alone, then the Marlins are the only team against whom they are playing towards the trade deadline with a losing record. 

Suppose the Mets split the upcoming ten game run.  They would still be 3 games over .500 and theoretically a part of the postseason wildcard race though whether they are further ahead or further back is unknown.  A .500 record is worse than they are playing right now and could tip the scale towards a selling mode though not a wholesale roster remake.

If the club is say 6-4 or better then the motivation to make changes is certain more as a buyer.  It would mean that the recent spate of success is not yet over and they are indeed contenders.  You might see a starting pitcher moved, some relief pitchers demoted or DFA’d and a spare outfielder or two acquired. 

The third possibility is a rough ten game period.  A 3-7 record would drop them a game under .500 that much deeper into the season and their likelihood of playing games in October becomes far slimmer than it is right now.  That would mean they would start playing the final day of July with a 52-53 record with only two months left to turn things around. 

Now the optimist in me is in favor of the first two scenarios seeing the Mets tinker with the roster to make incremental improvements over where they are now.  It’s not likely to see the Mets land a superstar bat as a rental such as Toronto’s Vlad Guerrero, Jr. who is rumored to be available. 

Some would call me a pessimist but I feel I am more of a realist.  

If the club finds itself below .500 over the next ten games then it is simply good business to accept the nice run for what it was, but rather than hoping to find a newcomer set of heroes from players on a hot streak or who simply needed a change of scenery, it would be more beneficial to play out the remainder of 2024 with what has been working using the folks who are likely to be here in 2025 but be prepared to trade away the ones who are not.  

Better to get something for them now than nothing at year’s end.