Observations –
So, my “Blow It Up” plan… err… internally combusted and has
created a whole new dynamic and approach to the 2025 season. Is there still a
way to go after Juan Soto and stay under the penalty level?
Let’s return to the building blocks…
First of all, I’m going forward by accepting all current contracts. Starling Marte might have spent a considerable amount of time this season on the IL, but his talent and experience will be needed what with the lack of development of chain outfielder talent.
The injury also probably
would make it hard to move him anyway… as for Jeff McNeil, his output this year
coupled with his current salary makes it impossible to deal off his entire 2025
salary. He also will never put up numbers this low again. As for Sean Manaea, yes, he has a player
option only, but I’m going to go ahead with a plan that has him exercising it.
The Penalty level in 2025 is $241mil…
Current keepers and their 2025 salary:
2B Jeff McNeil - $15.75mil
2B/3B Ronny Mauricio – (estimated $1mil)
SS Francisco Lindor - $34.1mil
3B/1B/DH Mark Vientos – (estimated $2mil)
C Francisco Alvarez – (estimated $4mil)
OF Brandon Nimmo – $20.5mil
OF Starlin Marte - $20.75mil
OF Luisangel Acuna – (estimated $1mil)
SP Kodai Senga – $15mil
SP Christian Scott – (estimated $2mil)
SP David Peterson – (estimated $4mil)
SP Sean Manaea – $13.55mil
SP Jose Butto – (estimated $1mil)
RP Edwin Diaz - $21.5mil
RP Dednial Nunez – (estimated $1mil)
That’s 15 players for a total of $157.15mil)… leaving $83.85mil to fill out the team.
I’m short a first baseman, one utility infielder, a backup
catcher, two outfielders, and six relievers. Soto would cost around $60mil a
year, thus leaving $23.85mil for 10 members of the 26 plus the entire minor
league salaries. There is no way you keep either JDM or Alonso, sign Soto, and
stay under the penalty.
You could move Vientos to first (until Ryan Clifford is ready), return Brett Baty to third for a third
chance, re-sign Jose Inglesias at a decent number or bring up a guy
like Pablo Reyes for a utility infield position, sign Luis Torrens to a multi-year deal
and you still would have find eight more outfielders and pitchers in the team
controlled area. Players like OF Drew Gilbert, OF/1B Clifford, and
SP Brandon Sproat, RP Bryce Montas de Oca, and SS/2B Jett Williams will arrive either
mid-2025 or opening day 2026.
Could the Mets pull this off?
Maybe.
Will they?
Probably not.
16 comments:
They really just have to get under the draft penalty this coming year. Which would be $241 million + $40 million. That should be very doable. Don’t lose those 10 slots, unless you get lucky, it is such a huge penalty, progressively speaking.
If somehow they whiff on Soto, maybe the actual $241 million limit is still within reach.
Of course, you are not including Verlander’s $17.5 million option, which it appears he won’t reach, thankfully. Mets would catch a real break there.
Pete gets a rest for post-All Star play, after clunking out in first round.
Ok honestly that feels like a sad future
Change for change sake is sometimes needed
(A la JD and Vientos in this lineup)
Mcniel had to go
Mack do you plan on adding your opinions on the picks after the first rounder
Also being out of the country my question didn’t appear to have posted but I had 2 for you
1. After the first 18 picks were made, who would have been your choice
2. Had we lost just 2 more games last year (thanks for nothing DJ steward)
We would have had the 6th pick because of the rules
Who would you have wanted at 6?
Eddie please explain that last comment: Had we lost just 2 more games last year (thanks for nothing DJ steward)
We would have had the 6th pick because of the rules
Mack,
There is something to be said about the way this group of players have come together. An important part of having a good team are players that enjoy playing with each other.
Having said that, I would allow Pete to walk away not only because of the money he expects to get but because if you really look at his production, it has been coming down on a yearly basis.
Would you or anyone here thought that Nimmo would have superior numbers than Alonso at this point?. Three less homers but better in everything else.
Do the Mets have a chance for Soto? sure, but I would look and see what 60M would buy first and if that total equals more or less of having just Soto. A lot of times having two Lindor type players at 30M is better than one at 60M.
I would bring back Torrens because the Mets needed a true backup catcher and he is a great one. They should extend him now because if he becomes a free agent, some team may offer him a starting gig. Mets cannot take that chance.
A full year of JDM and Vientos would make up for a lot of the production lost from letting Alonso walk.
Iglesias as part of the bench? yes please. Would Bader want to come back to play part time?
The problem with that is where do you play the kids coming up and Mauricio who is coming back from injury?.
Painful decisions will have to be made this off-season.
My interpretation of Eddie's Stewart comment is that Stewart's hot bat gave us 2 Ws that kept us out of the Bottom 6.
JMO.
Lots of decisions to be made, but Alonso/Soto are the big ones.
If Stearns wants Soto without going over the cap, could he try the "Ohtani Play" and heavily backload the contract?
Boarding a plane but bill got it correctly…
This is the stuff that uses the most digital ink, because everyone has an opinion. However, I would like to go for it differently. Leave the lineup alone and look to the arms. There is some excess. I would look to move a starter. I don’t want to make any trades for relievers because I want to bring up Hamel and Vasil at some point as relievers and see how they do. I can use them and replace Houser (and pay his salary) at any time, and they wouldn’t be worse. So, I trade him. I put Butto in the rotation when Foley comes back, so I pluck a piece from there and trade it off. I only buy like they did with Maton, get a piece someone wants to get rid of. As for the Stewart dilemma, I don’t have an answer yet. Marte would have been perfect, but he will be a while.
I am adding 3 per day
Today beginning at 11am
Is Soto at 60 million worth more than instead adding Fried and Burnes to our staff given the solid team we have and the quality of our prospects who should be ready at some point next year? I'm going with Fried and Burnes. As for this year Stewart and Gamel are like Short and Wendle except they moved on from them quickly so what's the holdup now very puzzling but the idea of the fact we're really rolling and don't want rock the boat has merit but DJS batting 5th no way.
To me, the logical move is to move Tylor Megill to the bullpen and let him go 2 (or 3) innings at a time. Why not build the pen with the players you have? Megill has stumbled the third time through the order - let him pitch the 6th and 7th and he should excel.
Hi Mack,
Just a quick question regarding the 2025 salary commitments:
Is Vientos, Alverez or Scott arbitration eligible? Aren't they still making the league minimum? Which would help a little.
My 2 cents on Soto...no way would I pay $60 mil. This would destroy are payroll for years to come. He is not better then Judge who is making $40 mil.
I would rather 2-star pitchers for that price.
All 3 are NOT ARB eligible but they deserve more than the minimum as per people like Alonso was
Starting with the 2023 draft, they moved to a lottery system to determine draft order in order to deter tanking. That’s why the Guardians and the Reds had the top 2 picks even though they both finished with better records than the Mets.
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