OPEN THREAD - The 2024 Draft

 

Going forward, this will be the open thread for Day 1... tonight... of the 2024 draft.

We will comment on each pick up to the Mets picking at 1.29.

COMMENTS FROM THE FANGRAPHS MOCK DRAFT

6:40pm - 

I expect the "usual suspects" to fall early, but I am particularly curious where the two top pitchers, Chase Burns and Hagen Smith, fall.

My guess going in... Burns is a top 3 pick and Smith comes in around 6 or 7

7:13pm - 

1.1 - Cleveland Guardians - 

2B Travis Bazzana - Oregon State

There hasn’t been any industry buzz about the Guardians trying like hell to cut an under-slot deal up here as a way of maximizing what they can do at picks 36, 48, and beyond. The draft doesn’t have the depth to make that strategy very enticing. Instead, this seems to be about who Cleveland considers to be the best player. Since the Combine, word of mouth has surrounded Travis Bazzana, and either Charlie Condon, JJ Wetherholt, or both. There are folks who think the telegraphed interest in Wetherholt is a smokescreen, and those who believe that Condon’s more volatile hit tool isn’t a fit with Cleveland’s typical modus operandi, but nobody ever excludes Bazzana from their mix, which I think is telling. There are those who think that once Guardians people got around Bazzana, his makeup pushed the thing over the finish line.

I don’t think the Wetherholt buzz is a smokescreen. Remember that Cleveland, perhaps more than any other club, cares about a player’s underclass performance. If a guy has a great sophomore year, hits on the Cape, and then has a tough pre-draft spring, the Guards are more likely to stay on him and take him if he falls. That applies to the Chase DeLauter, Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, and Ethan Hankins picks. Wetherholt was my top player in the class coming into the spring. He had a hamstring injury this year and didn’t slug like he did as a sophomore when he returned. He’s a better defender than Bazzana by a not small amount. If you think his injury had a meaningful impact on his offensive output as I do (Wetherholt’s underlying data is barely worse than Condon’s and Bazzana’s), then he might just be the best guy.

7:19pm - 1.2 - Cincinnati Reds

RHP Chase Burns - Wake Forest

Aside from some mention of Jac Caglianone, folks are mostly putting the Rockies on college pitching here, with some specifically mentioning Burns but none singling out Hagen Smith. People with other clubs think Bill Schmidt might not have the luxury of waiting very long for this pick to reach Coors, and that that will influence what they do with this pick.

7:24pm - 1.3 - Colorado

3B Charlie Condon - Georgia

I haven’t spoken with anyone who has suggested the Reds would pass on Condon if he’s here. If Condon goes first, folks with teams have mentioned Cincinnati pivoting to either Chase Burns or Jac Caglianone.

7:30pm - 1.4 - Oakland

1B Nick Kurtz - Wake Forest

Rival clubs have the Pirates on college hitting here because we’re getting to the point where the current regime has to start winning, and they need to improve the lineup around all of their young pitching. Cam Smith would be good value here, but he needs a swing change to get to his power and the Pirates haven’t been able to help Ke’Bryan Hayes do that. My sources have specifically mentioned Kurtz with Pittsburgh. He’d be a clean, quick-moving fit given their big league needs and his power is already actualized.

7:35 pm - 1.5 - White Sox

LHP Hagen Smith - Arkansas

Perhaps the most consistent rumor I’ve heard is that Kansas City likes Smith and high school shortstop Bryce Rainer.

7:38 pm - 1.6 - KC

1B/LHP Jac Cagliaone - Florida

I don’t have much team-specific dope about the White Sox aside from some chatter that they’ve entertained the idea of an under-slot deal with Konnor Griffin. In this scenario, Caglianone is here and presents franchise-altering upside for an org that could really use it. The optics of taking maybe the most famous guy in the draft when it’s also justifiable based on his talent might quell some of the angst around the ugliness of their rebuild.

7:44 pm - 1.7 - St. Louis

SS JJ Wetherholt - West Virginia

I watched Wetherholt go into the Angels’ suite for a meeting at the Combine and I don’t think you take that meeting if you’re Wetherholt unless there’s a chance you’re going to fall this far. This would fit the Angels’ express lane tendencies, as Wetherholt is pretty likely to move fast. Pick eight is also the first place where Cam Caminiti’s name has been mentioned, but you’d better really, really like the high school pitcher you’re taking over the hitters still available here. 

7:50 pm - 1.8 - Angels:

2B Christian Moore - Tennessee

I have Moore’s slide stopping here because, counterintuitive though it may be, the Rays tend to take toolsy college guys with suspect hit tools, like Moore. Carson Benge has also been mentioned here.

7:55 pm - 1.9 - Pittsburgh

SS Konnor Griffin - Jackson Prep HS

If we’re picking potential landing spots for Griffin, a toolsy high schooler with strikeout risk, it’s the team that recently drafted Elijah Green and Brady House. But Washington has a new scouting director (Danny Haas, formerly of the Diamondbacks), so this might depend on whether Haas or Mike Rizzo is making the pick.

This next area of the draft is where there’s generally considered to be a talent drop-off. Teams that pick in the early part of a new talent tier have more incentive to cut an under-slot deal or find sanctuary in a safer college player. In this draft, that’s going to be college hitters. I want to point out that several of the next half dozen teams are ones that tend to care a lot about contact skills. Because Tennessee second baseman Christian Moore didn’t perform especially well in that regard, he may be a candidate to slide deeper than teams expect.

800: pm - 1.10 - Washington

SS Seavcr King - Wake Forest

The Brewers aren’t scared off by a lack of prototypical size (Eric Brown Jr., Robert Moore, Dylan O’Rae, etc.), which is the only thing King lacks. Milwaukee has also been more open to letting guys try to move up the defensive spectrum, which would ideally happen for King, who played mostly third base at Wake. This is the first spot Kaelen Culpepper’s name has surfaced. Carson Benge has also been mentioned here and at the next two picks.

8:05pm - 1.11 - Detroit

SS Bryce Rainer - Harvard-Westlake HS

In this scenario, JJ Wetherholt is just sitting there, which might be too tempting for the Cardinals to pass up. Names people have put with St. Louis include Nick Kurtz, Chase Burns (does he have a home between pick no. 3 and here?), and Rainer. Recall that Masyn Winn was also a two-way prospect with a huge arm and that has worked out. I don’t think Konnor Griffin is in play here at all.

8:10pm - 1.12 - Boston 

OF Braden Montgomery - TAMU

This is where there starts to be more variability. I think the dream scenario for Oakland is for Condon or Wetherholt to go first, then for Cags and Burns to go two and three in some order, leaving Bazzana for the taking at pick four. I think they’d prefer Bazzana to Wetherholt if both were available here. Nick Kurtz has been mentioned, though I have other people telling me he’s falling. But the most frequent industry chatter has Braden Montgomery with Oakland. If there’s a trend in Oakland’s early selections, it’s less about a type of player they’re into and seemingly more about location, with a preference for guys in the Southwest or on the West Coast (Jacob Wilson, Max Muncy, Daniel Susac, Henry Bolte, Cole Miller, Denzel Clarke). Montgomery spent two years at Stanford and one at A&M.

8:18pm.13 - Giants

OF James Tibbs III - Florida State

There is no consensus as to what Boston will do here. I’ve spoken with people who think Craig Breslow’s background in pitching dev will push the org in that direction, but Trey Yesavage and one or two of the high school pitchers are the only feasible options here, and if you’re good at pitching dev you don’t have to use first round resources on one.

8:22pm - 1.14 - Cubs

3B Cam Smith - Florida State

This would be a great value pick at this spot, and unlike a lot of other “safe” college hitters, Smith has some swing optimization stuff to work on. His timeline also fits better with the Marlins’ window of contention than the super polished college bats.

8:31.15 - Seattle

SP Jurrangelo Cijntje - Mississippi State

I have no specific dope here but other teams expect the D-backs, who have multiple comp pics, to select a couple different types of players the same way they did with their excellent 2019 class.

1.16 - Miami

OF PJ Morlando - Summerville HS

Teams have heard that the Phillies are considering Morlando, as well as the projectable flavor of high schooler pitchers who are poised to go in this range (Kash Mayfield, William Schmidt, Owen Hall, Dasan Hill).

1.17 - Milwaukee

OF Braylon Payne - Elkins HS

(not picked in first round of the mock draft)

1.18 - Tampa Bay

OF Theo Gillen - Westlake HS

Gillen might be the best high school hitter in this entire class, but injuries leave him poised to move from shortstop to either second base or center field in pro ball. Minnesota has been happy to scoop up hitters with health issues each of the last two drafts.

1.19 - New York Mets

OF Carson Benge - Oklahoma State

I suppose we’re getting into the area where some of the other top-tier high school pitchers are in play, but the tendency of David Stearns and co. in Milwaukee was to take guys who make contact like Benge does.