Any loyal Mets fan knows that the team was historically converted from a National League joke to a contending club when it put capable pitchers on the mound both to start games and to support the pitchers who are removed when exhausted from their efforts or simply not getting it done. The problem is that you need to fortify both aspects of pitching equally.
More recently examining the Mets has shown something of an unbalanced approach to this set of objectives. Their starting pitching with rare exceptions (ahem, Adrian Houser) have been mostly solid.
Right now we can all recall days when Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Christian Scott have held opponents pretty much ineffectual through their strong efforts on the mound. Even much beleaguered David Peterson (4-0) recently reeled off a shutout 6 innings en route to a Mets 7-0 win over the Nationals.
The bullpen, unfortunately, has been pretty much the polar opposite. Dedniel Nunez has functioned reliably. After that it is pretty much a series of batting practice efforts for the hitters they’ve been brought in to retire.
The addition of Phil Maton was a push in the right direction as he has most recently pitched more effectively than he did for the majority of the 2024 season, but it’s going to take a lot more than one reliever to correct the overall problem.
Hell, even Jake Diekman had a solid two strikeout appearance to preserve a game this week. However, throw in the IL assignment of overused Reed Garrett, the season ending situations with Drew Smith and Brooks Raley, the loss of Sean Reid-Foley and the spring training horror show from Shintaro Fujinami.
Many of the aforementioned pitchers are due to be free agents at year’s end and we’re not going to speculate on the wisdom of moving them for fresh names on the roster or extending them to longer contracts. Instead, let’s take a look at who could help in the rotation and the pen for 2025.
The first name, of course, is the recovering-from-injury Kodai Senga. He dominated hitters during his American rookie season in 2023 and the club is looking forward to a similar level of performance going forward. It would appear he is now on track to return for his 2024 debut by July’s end.
The next name to consider as a starting pitcher is the necessary migration of Jose Butto to the bullpen since pretty much nothing else was working. He’s been effective there but also has shown success in AAA and in the majors as a starting pitcher. Given how many openings are projected on the 2025 starting rotation, he would be another option there.
After pitching in 2024 more like it was 2023, 2022 or 2021, Tylor Megill is currently using up his last available option and demonstrated the usual up and down performance. As he approaches age 29 without yet having established himself as a starting pitcher it might pay for him to take on that Jose Butto relief pitcher role as he is a hard thrower who can look at one to three inning assignments rather than being expected to be productive as a starter.
Brandon Sproat has everyone drooling over what he could do as a starting pitcher in Queens, but he’s only in AA and likely will start 2025 in Syracuse.
The other starting pitcher options are not suggesting they are long term solutions. Blade Tidwell, Dom Hamel, Mike Vasil and Max Kranick have not been standouts.
Where it gets worse is in the bullpen. Right now in Syracuse familiar Citifield visitor Grant Hartwig is the only under 30 pitcher with impressive stats, but he has not yet shown that level of competence in the majors. Other than that, it’s over-30 middle relievers many of whom will not be part of the Mets organization next season. It’s not a deep well of relief pitching talent.
Right now it would seem that if the Mets are serious about improving the pen now and in the future it’s going to require either a number of veteran player trades for reinforcements or it will take a dramatic change in scouting for free agents who do not necessarily have top name recognition but who have demonstrated a consistent track record of competence in the bullpen.
14 comments:
Right now, I do not think Megill is a starting pitching option. He was perfect for three innings in Syracuse two nights ago, and then the wheels fell off. In the past, we have heard stories of his velocity tailing after three or four innings. That sounds alot like Jeurys Familia and Domingo Tapia to me. Next, I have not given up on Mike Vasil and Dominic Hamel. These guys are both high spin guys and have trouble controlling their ball, but now that AAA has gone away with the automated strike calling system, both seem to be doing better. Lastly, Carlos Mendoza must learn when to remove a pitcher and when he can keep going. A pitcher that is “feeling it” can be let go. Of course, we all think “we feel it” every night, so how do you trust? I still wonder Jeremy Hefner’s aptitude for the job of pitching coach or maybe his real title should be pitching analyst. That’s not a coach.
Rotation wise, I have Senga, Scott, Peterson,and Butto. The Mets do not want another Seth Lugo on their hands. Butto will return as a starter.
Past that, I sign a free agent and tag Megill, Tidwell, Hamil, and Vasil in that order as SP6-9
Sproat will arrive mid season
Or keep Manaea and not sign a free agent
One thing that is obvious - this team plows thru pitchers like no one's business. 30 pitchers already, which includes Julio Teheran and Jorge Lopez. Astonishing. 30 for a full season is a lot. The Mets have 71 games left.
We will undoubtedly see Fujinami within days. Will Bryce Montes de Oca help, or be a return of the same wild man who was wild, but left Dodge with his Tommy John injury in 2023? His two most recent outings totaled 1 full inning and 3 walks.
Paul Gervase ought to be in AAA ASAP, as he may be needed at this rate in 2024, but he walks too many still. Otherwise, AAAA arms, it seems. If Vasil is not traded at the deadline, I would convert him to the pen, I think, perhaps Hamel too.
Megill I discuss at 9 AM.
Sproat I am penciling in to the Mets opening day rotation. If all goes well, he will be joining AAA Syracuse for its pennant drive after the Futures game.
Mack, I think it is realistic to try to re-sign Manaea. I think Sproat is available early in 2025, Tong possibly in late 2025, but who else?
I will say this about Peterson - I think everyone is forgetting he had hip surgery because the discomfort got too great. Assuming he is 100%, we may well be seeing a whole new Peterson. Why not an SP3?
I still think McLean should help in 2025 - he got to AA really fast, and I think will be done with AA by season's end. AAA for half of 2025. Otherwise, the pitching cupboard is pretty bare.
I thought Manaea was signed through 2025
Bill, I extend no pitcher before a season ends, but I think you present a good case indeed.
Bill, Severino’s ERA is almost double on the road and he doesn’t strike out many batters. What’s the deference between him and Quintana? I would not dismiss the man, but he needs to back up his bases and the price will dictate.
Imagine if we only had a pen, we would be competing with the Phillies.
Did anyone notice the use of the BP last night?
The same relievers while Butto, Houser were available to pitch multiple innings. What's the point of having if you don't use them?
Diekman is running on fumes. The Mets need to rest him.
Megill to pen? sure.
Severino is a #3 or #4 these days. Not an ace.
Manaea if I recall correctly has a player option for 2025. Keep him.
Saw Bartolo Colon was at the game the other day. Make him the pitching coach and he will show them how to pitch with only a 88mph fastball. lol
Baseball Reference has it as a player option
Cot Contracts says it is fixed
It seems to be a player option
I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to sign either Manea or Sevarino, though I highly doubt they’ll keep them both. There’s also a case to be made to keep Quintana if you can get him on a reasonable one-year deal or a year and a club option, though I’m guessing he can get two guaranteed somewhere.
Senga, Scott, Butto, and Peterson isn’t a bad group to build around, particularly if we can expect Sproat to join them early and they plan to go with a 6-man rotation for long stretches. I don’t think they’re likely to sign an ace-type in the coming offseason, particularly with so many vets likey leaving this team and so many kids likely trying to prove themselves in Queens in ‘25. My guess is rather than take on an additional year’s risk and expense, that they wait until the ‘25/‘26 offseason to make that investment.
Adam, we shall see.
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