Mets Draft - Pick 14 - RHP - Tanner Witt - Texas

 

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AS A REDSHIRT SOPHOMORE (2023) 

Returned from injury to make six starts late in the season and into the postseason…picked up a pair of wins against San Jose State and West Virginia…best outing of the season was to clinch the Big 12 Championship against West Virginia (5/20) with 3.0 scoreless innings and three strikeouts…made his season debut at TCU (5/1). 

AS A SOPHOMORE (2022) 

Underwent season ending surgery, ending his season with a 2-0 record, 1.64 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 11 innings pitched…struck out a career high nine in six innings against Alabama (2/27)...got first win of the season to sweep the series, with five innings pitched and five strikeouts against Rice (2/20). 

AS A FRESHMAN (2021)

 Named a Freshman All-American and Honorable Mention All-Big 12 selection…led Texas with 28 relief appearances throughout the season…finished with a 5-0 record, five saves, a 3.16 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 57 innings pitched…held opponents to a .194 batting average…made Texas debut with five strikeouts in 1.2 scoreless innings against Arkansas (2/21)

…picked up first career save with a perfect inning against BYU (2/24)…got first career win with three innings of relief and season-high six strikeouts against South Carolina (3/14)…had an incredible relief outing in the College World Series, pitching a career-high 5.2 shutout innings against Tennessee (6/22) to keep the season alive…had 13 at-bats during the season as well, hitting .231 with three hits and three runs scored…also played for USA Baseball Collegiate National Team during the summer.

 

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Round 14, Pick No. 413: RHP Tanner Witt, Texas 

Witt pitched only 9.1 innings this season, allowing six earned runs. 

 

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Tanner Witt was a late first-round target for teams in the 2020 MLB Draft out of high school. He made it clear, however, that he wanted to go to college. He helped lead the Texas Longhorns to the semifinals of the 2021 College World Series. In only his second start of his sophomore season, Witt went down to a UCL injury that sidelined him until May 1st of this year. Upon his return, it was clear that he was not game-ready, but he has still shown the upside that Major League teams want from collegiate pitchers. 

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50 

Strengths 

Tanner Witt has a plus fastball that sits between 92-95 and can touch 97. Add in an upper-70s curveball with downward movement and you have two plus pitches that Tanner can build from. His changeup projects to be his thirst best pitch when all is said and done, and could give him a repertoire of three-plus pitches with an above-average slider to round it out. Witt has shown the ability to strike batters out, as through 75.2 college innings, he has struck out 93 batters for a K/9 of 11.06. If Witt’s performance can improve as projected, you can expect an upper-9 K/9 from him in The Bigs. 

Weaknesses

 Tanner Witt’s biggest weakness is his control. In those same 75.2 collegiate innings, he has walked a total of 34 batters. This gives him a BB/9 of 4.04. He is expected to improve upon his control, however, and locate his pitches better. If he is able to do so, his ceiling projects to be a number two or number three starter. If his control does not improve, his ceiling may be as a long reliever making spot starts on double-header days or filling in due to injuries. 

MLB Player Comparison 

The closest MLB player to compare Tanner Witt to would be Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals. Mikolas debuted in MLB on May 5th, 2012. He has since spent time with three different clubs, with most of his career coming as a Cardinal. Mikolas has pitched to a career ERA of 3.70 across 792.2 innings with 594 strikeouts. He has been an All-Star twice and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting once.

 While Miles Mikolas has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, he has always stayed right around league average in terms of production. The 34-year-old has also dealt with a number of injuries and has only qualified for the ERA title three times.  Tanner Witt definitely has the potential to shatter expectations and be an even better pitcher than Miles Mikolas once all is said and done. 

He most certainly projects to be a better strikeout artist than Mikolas, despite also projecting to walk more batters than Mikolas does. However, the similarities in their repertoire, including velocity and break, show that Tanner Witt may be on a path that leads this late-first-rounder to the middle of a perennial contenders rotation.       

 

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Ranked by some teams as a top-20 prospect in the 2020 MLB Draft, Witt turned down big money because of his desire to play for Texas, a decision that appeared set to pay off after a strong freshman season out of the bullpen when he earned Freshman All-America honors thanks to a 5-0 record with a 3.16 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 57.0 innings while holding opponents to a .194 batting average. 

In 2022, Witt moved into the weekend rotation and got off to a hot start, winning both of his starts and allowing only two earned runs in 11.0 innings with 14 strikeouts. But Witt experienced muscle soreness that worsened with further evaluation, ultimately revealing the need for Tommy John surgery.

 Instead of opting out of the 2023 season in order to prepare for the draft, Witt returned to the mound in early May, but struggled through most of his six appearances, including lasting only 1.0 inning while allowing three runs on four hits in deciding game of the Palo Alto Super Regional. 

Witt finished with a 10.97 ERA in 10.2 innings and issued eight walks. Still, Witt was ranked as a top-100 prospect in last year’s draft before sliding into the 18th round, where he was picked by the Baltimore Orioles before deciding to return to Texas for a fourth season on the Forty Acres.

 In five appearances this season, including two starts, Witt showed some improvement from 2023, reducing his ERA to 5.79 as opponents hit .212 against him, but he also allowed four home runs in 9.1 innings. After allowing three home runs in 2.0 innings against Texas Tech on March 10, Witt’s season, and, ultimately, his career with the Longhorns ended due to continued arm problems. 

Even beyond the poor results when Witt did pitch over the last two seasons, his velocity never bounced back to pre-injury levels and his high-level curveball requires plenty of torque on his surgically-repaired elbow. The 6’6, 230-pounder is getting his shot with the Mets, but Witt’s loyalty to Texas cost him a large amount of money and his status as a top prospect. 

 

Mack – 

Boy, I am so happy the Mets recognized the potential here. 

I have followed Witt since his sophomore year in high school and he was a sure fire first round pick once he graduated there. Since then, his UCL injury has come close to ruining his baseball future and, at times, he seems to have completely lost his ability to control his pitches. 

Still, there is a ton of talent here and I’m sure the Mets won’t assign him to a team this season. Get him in the labs and strengthen that arm, then show him where the barn is, and you could someday have a front end starter here.