Tom Brennan: Can the Mets Catch the Braves?

"HEY!! I can still see them!”

Can the Mets catch those pesky Braves?

Well, the Braves have gone 14-6 in their last 20, so it seems the answer is “No, they can’t.”

But…in the prior 19 games, they had not one, but two, 6 game losing streaks. I broke out my eraser and checked the “Yes, they can” box.

Me? The Mets have 7 left against Philly, 3 against the Braves, and two against the White Sux.

- So, win all 12 and take the division. After all, 8 back of Philly and 3 behind Atlanta.

Let’s do it.

After all, Edwin Diaz is back on track. And Megill proves he can still thrill.

And JD Martinez has 65 RBIs in 374 at bats. 

And the secret weapon, 3 hit Jesse Winker. Now hitting .314 as a Met.

MINORS:

2 St Lucie relievers - Wellington Aracena and Juan Arnaud - combined for 5 perfect innings and fanned 12.  Are they good? They sure were last night.

Jett Williams faced a first round beast named Dollander (1.43) last night, in his first game back to AA. Jett was 1 for 5, with 4 Ks. A LITTLE tougher than St Lucie. Binghamton fanned 16 times in a 3-0 loss.

In Brooklyn, William Lugo and De Los Santos, have 2 things in common. Both had 3 hits, and both are still hitting in the .180s. Morabito stole 2 more bases (58).

Joander Suarez had a decent AAA debut last night, except Roger Clemens’ kid took him deep twice. Welcome to AAA. Gilbert went hitless, and is hitting .186 in 145 at bats.

While the previously long-term injured Jett and Drew are now playing every day, the previously long-term injured Jacob Reimer has been back on the IL since August 18. Just 73 at bats this season. No HRs, .237. Unclear as to what the current injury is, or his timetable to return.

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Roster Changes That Are or Can Be Made

Well, we all knew it was going to happen when the Mets needed a starting pitcher.  Who’s on the 40-man roster to make for a convenient call-up?  Who has been starting his entire minor league season?  Who has familiarity with the players and management of the Mets?  Why, that pretty much describes Tylor Megill.

What we didn’t mention is how awful he has been in the major leagues this season.  How bad?  Well, if not for the threatening-to-surpass-the-1962-Mets Chicago White Sox announcing their starting pitcher who has a 7.98 ERA, Tylor Megill’s 6.08 would generate an even bigger headline. 

While no one is particularly happy other than the Megill family about this expected transaction taking place, as mentioned before he is out of options at year’s end and the Mets do very much need to figure out his future in the organization.  Will he be a starter?  Will he follow suit like Jose Butto and convert to reliever?  Or will the Mets offer him up in a low level trade transaction to give him a shot elsewhere?

If not for the recent injury pushing Dedniel Nunez to the IL after just a single game appearance, the prospect of Butto returning to a starting role had some appeal.  Unfortunately with Nunez now out, Edwin Diaz coming off two out of three bad appearances, Adam Ottavino having a poor season and most of the rest of the pen this side of Phil Maton not having a long and positive track record, it’s pretty much impossible to sabotage your pen even more by moving Butto, hence the Megill arrival.  Throw in the fact that Butto has not been stretched out for starting pitching innings requirements and it would seem the Megill move is indeed the right one. 

The corresponding offensive move to make as Sunday’s September 1st expansion date arrives is a difficult one to figure out.  You could get some solid defenders like Jackie Bradley, Jr. or Drew Gilbert, but the former is not on the 40-man roster and the latter is only just back from a nearly season-long injury. 

Another possibility previously mentioned is D.J. Stewart who is at best a one-dimensional player for getting on base via the walk or the hit, but he hasn’t executed well, cannot run and is not a solid fielder. 

Speedy Luisangel Acuna is an interesting option who can play multiple positions, run like the wind and in previous seasons showed good bat discipline.  In AA he hit .294 in 2023 but this year has been one of struggle.  Still, as a late inning pinch runner or defensive replacement he could be useful but you’d squander an option by promoting him this year.

Then there are non-roster players who have performed fairly well.  The one who stands out the most is Luke Ritter.  For 2024 he is hitting .259 which is in Acuna’s range, but he’s added to that 24 HRs and 83 RBIs in 405 ABs.  Those offensive numbers are appealing and the Mets currently have a vacancy on their 40-man roster.  Still, at 27 and never having made it to the majors, the use of an option is not as much of an issue as it would be for the younger Acuna. 

As stated earlier this week, the prospect of a Syracuse stunning September surge to October baseball for the Mets is slim at best.

Tom Brennan: Why Not - I Dunno - Use Fujinami as Closer? You Got a Better Idea? And Burning Benge

 

FUJINAMI HAS HAD AAA UMPS CALLING FEWER BALLS LATELY

Edwin Diaz has returned to throwing some untimely molotov cocktails at the Mets' season.

What looked like a promising wild card surge has begun to sputter, with a push from Eddie D, his much-needed rebound save on Thursday notwithstanding.

We always have Edwin's MVP-deserving 2022, like some will always have Paris. Ahh, memories.

Sometimes in 2024 he is a saver.  Other times, he is a saboteur.

Remember that awful Sticky Fingers suspension?  

When his right hand looked like an auto mechanic doing a messy lube job?

Bullpen turbulence (injuries, filling in during his suspension) has ensued.

The Tommy Trumpet guy has too often become the Crummy Crumpet guy.

So maybe it is time to consider alternatives.  

(Not really, but go along with me for a minute, OK?)

"Go Sugar-Free", RFK Jr just suggested to me. Healthy...and radical.

The Mets could have gotten quite a bit for Edwin at the deadline.  

Maybe they will this off season?  My brother, though, says, “KEEP HIM!”

Alternative?  Do we have someone who throws as hard, or harder?

How about…..Shintaro Fujinami? "WHAAAT?"

Before you laugh...(even I am chuckling)….let’s look at Fuji’s output.

In August in AAA, he has thrown 10 innings, just 2 hits allowed, 4 walks.

Since June, 18.2 IP, a miniscule 3 hits allowed.

Hitters in his 26.2 minors innings are hitting .115 against him. Ten hits.

He was ridiculously wild early this season, but seems much better now.

He's probably still wilder than one would like, but Diaz often is, too, huh?

Fuji's last bad walk outing was over 5 weeks ago, on July 24. He's walked 12 in those 18.2 latest innings since late June, but 7 of those walks occurred in 2 outings in July, and he otherwise, in his 14 other outings since late June, has not walked more than one batter in an outing, and 5 walks total in the other 17.1 IP excluding those 2 wild games.

Three hits in his last 18.2 IP?  Three.

Do we really think Edwin will not be the Kerosene Kid after this?  

Do we need to consider...

SO...GO WITH A SUGAR SUBSTITUTE?

Dedniel would be good.  Wait, he is back on the IL with forearm ache.

To close, there is one prerequisite: you have to actually pitch.

So...the alternate answer is obvious...

BRING UP FUJINAMI TO CLOSE!

(Really, though, all I want is 2022 Edwin back)

(All I want is the 2024 playoffs.  You too?)

BENGE IS BURNING HOT

 

First rounder Carson Benge is tearing it up for St Lucie. 8 for 12 in his last 3 games, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs.  Best hitter there, it certainly appears.  And he just got there.

You know I restrain myself mostly with criticism of Mets' high draft picks until the player drafted, let's say a catcher in the first round, over a good period of time, shows his greatest proclivities to being way too many strikeouts and way too few CS.

I have this funny feeling I'll not be criticizing the Carson Benge pick at all.  

I really do prefer praising Mets' draft picks.  No, really.

That said, Benge is sure looking like a good one.  He has not pitched, but could even still, considering he hit 96 in college.  My reply?  No.  Why?

Look at the array of injured Mets pitchers year after year. Pitching is hazardous.  

I want a healthy Benge in the outfield, showing off a Roberto Clemente arm - and hitting like him, too.  

I am starting to PRAISE THAT PICK.  Feel free to join me.

BEST BROOKLYN HITTER IN AUGUST?

Hint: 

He was hitting .118 for Brooklyn heading into August.  Really?  Yes.

He was one of the injured minors 2024 prospects cohort, getting hurt right around the same time as Drew and Jett in early April, with our mystery guy missing the rest of April, plus May and June, and spending most of July in the FCL and St Lucie to rehab.  But he was .118 in his Brooklyn YTD stats through July.  Who???

In August, D'Andre Smith, a 23 year old 5th rounder, has hit .333/.372/.500, with 5 steals in 21 games.

Keep it up, D'Andre.

The best Brooklyn hitter, however, remains QUICK Nick Morabito who, between St Loo and Cycloneville, has hit .306 this season with FIFTY SIX STEALS.  

In 169 games this year and last, .306 with 77 steals in 95 tries.

Veni, Vidi, Speedi.

MIKE VASIL WINS

2 runs, both surrendered in the 6th inning, 4 hits, 2 Ks.  

8-8, 5.54, 96 Ks in 119 IP in 2024.  

Let's hope this is a strong 2024 finish kick.

Drew Gilbert has had his 3rd recent game where 1) he homered and 2) he went 1 for 5.  The power bat (5 HRs) is showing up now, thankfully.

WYATT YOUNG SCORCHING

Binghamton had 4 hits last night. Young had 2. 

His August OBP? .511.  

He deserves accolades.  

On the other hand, Parada in August is 10 for 77. My math? That is .130.

Reese Kaplan -- The Ice Is Getting Thinner and Thinner

After the painful grand slam loss to the Diamondbacks on Wednesday evening it seemed as if the Mets had hit the proverbial crossroads.  Dedniel Nunez was hurt again, Luis Severino looked as if he might be hurt and Edwin Diaz was partying like it was 1999.  The Mets are soon in danger of being a double digit number of games out of wild card playoff contention.

To a great many Mets fans it is time to throw in the proverbial towel, release veterans not due back in 2025 and bring up the kids for a look at how they fare against the best of the best in the game of baseball they’re chosen for a career.  Everyone is well aware of the slumps, injuries and whatever else has conspired to bring the July winning Mets into a skidding halt.

Then there are others who feel that as long as it is still mathematically possible for the Mets to play October baseball then you don’t give up.  They seem to take their collective inspiration best summed up back in 1978 by John Belushi as Bluto making his appeal to his fellow fraternity brethren in “Animal House”:

The truth, of course, lies somewhere between these two extremes, but the longer the club goes spinning its wheels, the less likely they are postseason bound.  Towards that end it’s probably worth taking a month-long look at folks who may or may not be wanted back and others who are projected for future roles on the big club but who have not yet shown what they can do in the majors. 

Personally, I hold the ten game margin as the bellwether of when you officially give up on the 2024 season and look forward to 2025.  With fewer than 30 games left to play the Mets would have to go something like 20-8 for the final month of the season to hold out any hope and frankly the Las Vegas odds on that happening are about as long as picking a winning lottery number. 

For now it is critical for the Mets to make a buy/goodbye decision on several players.  Sean Manaea will likely want to exercise his opt-out and the Mets needs to figure out how much they would pay to lure him into sticking around.

Behind him you have Luis Severino on a one-year deal who has been healthy which is actually more important than the 3.60 or thereabouts that he has delivered from the mound.  Nowadays a pitcher offering that level of performance could get a lot more money than Severino took in his bounce back year so the Mets have the same decision to make.

Harrison Bader, Tyrone Taylor, Jesse Winker, Jose Iglesias, Pete Alonso, Jose Quintana, Luis Torrens and most of the bullpen are in the same buy/goodbye situation.  Everyone would agree Iglesias needs to be brought back as does Luis Torrens.  The others are not quite as crystal clear. 

Then there are the buy-down candidates to shake up what’s not been working.  Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and perhaps even Brandon Nimmo are in this group.  The latest member may turn out to be Edwin Diaz who has not pitched in 2024 anything like he did in 2020 through 2022.  He’s a Met through 2027 assuming he exercises his player options and the Mets would have to wait until 2028 to buy him out. 

David Stearns is really going to have to earn his paycheck regardless of how the Mets wind up in the won/loss column. 

Paul Articulates - Not aligned with the line-up

I have always been fascinated by the numerous ways a manager can put together a lineup to maximize the winning potential of the players available.  There are many strategy to employ, such as:

• Table setters followed by RBI bats
• Speed at the top and bottom so when the lineup turns over there are better chances to put runners in scoring position before the heart of the order
• Alternating left and right-handed batters to make it difficult for opponents to set up favorable matches with relief pitchers
• Moving up the hot hand to take advantage of a streak
• All the variations enabled by the vast amount of analytics available in today's game.

I am sure there are other approaches that are also effective, but nowhere in my list is the one where you bat a slumping .200 hitter in the cleanup slot.  Yes, I am talking about last night's lineup where Carlos Mendoza put Brandon Nimmo in the 4 hole.  The same Brandon Nimmo that batted .188 in July and .221 in August.  The prior night he had Nimmo batting third.  I am confused.

I am a fan of Brandon Nimmo, so I usually like to see him at bat.  However, he has been in a terrible funk since the all-star break (.180/.287/.287) and despite one 3-for-5 night he does not appear to have figured it out.  Nimmo's OPS is .574 since the break, and that does not qualify him for any of the 3-5 positions in the lineup.  Jeff McNeil has been on a tear since the all-star break (.296/.366/.593) and he was out of the lineup Wednesday after batting eighth on Tuesday.

I understand that there are some batters that have terrific splits against certain pitchers, but there cannot be a justification for these misplacements.  Carlos Mendoza has to be better than this when the team is in a race for a playoff spot and facing one of those teams that they must pass.

Mendoza has done some very good things as the manager of this team, and his decision to move Francisco Lindor to the top of the lineup really sparked the team.  Lindor was not hitting .200 when that move was made.  Lindor has a history of batting leadoff, he has the speed and base-running savvy to do it, and was hitting well over .250 before the move.

The lineup produced five runs last night, but could have scored more against a faltering pitcher but the lineup did not produce.  With a bigger lead, the Mets would not have been in the position where they had to bring in Diaz early and he was clearly not ready to come in.

Tom Brennan: Vientos Wow Stats; Skubal; Sproat; Jake; Benge

The big fly, big glove guy

Brooks Robinson (you remember the guy, Hall of Famer, human vacuum cleaner at 3rd base, Yada Yada) made 263 errors at 3B in his career, with a .971 fielding %.

Mark Vientos has 6 errors at 3rd in his career, and a .977 fielding % at 3rd. 

And .984 with just 3 errors at 3rd this year, through Monday.

- Everyone wants to get the latter guy off third base, though…except me.

Mets’ best ever career slugging %?  Mike Piazza, .542.

Mark Vientos this year? .551. 

Which ties him for 10th highest in a single season, as a Met.

- Everyone wanted Baty over him early this year…except me.

Mark Vientos has 27 HRs in 390 at bats since September 1 last year.

 - Pete Alonso has 27 HRs this year, but in 497 at bats.

Written by me about Mark in November 2022:

….Mark's last 2 seasons, 2021 and .2022:

.281/.355/.545.  34 doubles and 49 HRs in 688 at bats.  

Better than Duda (in the minors). 

Mark seemingly demonstrated a somewhat higher willingness to swing for the big fly rather than try to work out walks.

And...Duda was still only in A ball at the same age.

Personally, I think Vientos will overcome his tentativeness and be smacking more big flies than Lucas did, over the same period of at bats.

I would tell Vientos this: 

Don't be tentative. You will succeed. You will hit with a lot of power.  Just be aggressive on swinging at strikes.  Walks are nice.  HRs are a lot nicer.  The walks will naturally increase when pitchers fear your ability to put up large HR #'s.

Pretty much what has happened.  Mark was a 2nd rounder (# 59) at age 17 in 2017.  A wise pick indeed.  So, he isn't fleet afoot, so he isn't good defensively (except he is), he has a booming bat, to all fields, and a classic swing, and it was a great pick, actually.

TRANSITION......TRANSITION:

I saw an article indicating that the transition for hitters from AAA to the majors has never been more difficult.  Pitching, compared to the minors, is beastly.  It took Vientos a while, and he has crossed the Rubicon.  Maybe Brittle Baty can do so next year.  But, keep that transition thingy in mind with Mauricio.  He has missed a full season. That is yet another obstacle to a successful major league season in 2025.

BRANDON SPROAT SPUTTERS:

He was great for 4 innings on Tuesday, but in the 5th, 2 HRs, 2 hit batsmen and 4 runs.  That AAA stop off is proving to be completely necessary in this, his first pro season.  He will still start for the Mets in 2025.

METS WHIFFED ON TARIK SKUBAL:

A 2024 lefty beast drafted by the Tigers in 2018, round 9, #255 overall.  

The Mets drafted nice guy and fellow lefty hurler Kevin Smith with the 200th pick.  Smith ran into a common malady - he looked very good in the low minors, never made it out of the high minors. Another site's review of Smith at draft time indicated his fastball sat at 88-91 MPH.  If so, frankly, why pick him?  Don't EVER draft 88-91 guys.  They are BP for MLB pitchers. 

A Mets' oft-repeated saga.  Dave Clark Five says it happens "Over and over and over again."

Skubal, though?  A high 90s strikeout machine.  15-3, 2.58, 193 Ks in 160 IP.  High 90s is MLB-tough.

I know, "the draft is a crap shoot.  Other teams passed on him, too." 

Yada, yada, yada.

The Mets drafts?  Exhibited expertise in "crap".

DEGROM IS CLOSE:

Threw 100 last night in a strong 2 inning rehab outing. Maybe the Mets should have traded for him for the stretch drive. Given up Baty in exchange.

BENGE IS BASHING: 

For St Lucie, 9 for 27, 8 walks, 2 HRs, .514 OBP. Instantly their best hitter. 

Looks like a fine first round pick, based on early returns.

FUJINAMI IS STINGY

1, his control is better of late. He is still not Bret Saberhagen.

2, in his last 18.2 innings over the past several weeks, just 3 hits allowed.

WYATT YOUNG HALF AND HALF

On base 50% in21 August games.

Reese Kaplan -- Little to No Help Available in Syracuse

Over the weekend in addition to the humiliating come-from-behind San Diego Padres victory after a surprisingly effective start from Jose Quintana there came news that lukewarm prospect Brett Baty is likely done for the season with his recent hit-by-pitch which resulted in not just pain in the finger that absorbed the errant throw but a fracture which normally takes 4 to 6 weeks for it to heal.  Given that September 1st arrives this coming Sunday it would suggest that the forgettable Baty 2024 season has just ended.

What’s interesting for the Mets right now is figuring out who deserves promotions when eligible when the calendar closes on August.  Some people are advocating Drew Gilbert get the call given his speed and power, but the 20 year old has missed much of the season due to injury and really hasn’t shown he’s capable of mastering AAA with a .212 batting average despite a seemingly hot week.  I say seemingly because other than the home runs he did nothing else and his batting average did not rise. 

Granted, the Mets could use a prospective late inning pinch runner and a guy on the bench who does have occasional home run power but between finding ABs for Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Jose Iglesias, Harrison Bader, slumping Brandon Nimmo and Tyrone Taylor the Mets are already fairly crowded.  It is unlikely Gilbert would get any starts unless the Mets fell out of October contention entirely. 

Another prospective pinch runner is Luisangel Acuna.  He’s hitting .257 which doesn’t make anyone do cartwheels.  However, he is a solid fielder and has swiped 32 bases successfully.  He’s also going to find starting assignments hard to find given the Mets’ crowded infield.  Again, they may rest some regulars if the club falls out of contention for the playoffs. 

Pitching is certainly something the Mets could use expecially with Paul Blackburn down and out with his hand injury.  Right now it appears that Tylor Megill will again get the call as he’s already on the 40-man roster and out of options when the 2024 season ends.  None of the other starters in Syracuse are doing anything to warrant a promotion. 

If you look at the roster in Syracuse it would appear that the highest level performers are like the recently DFA’d Ben Gamel — veteran players who couldn’t land a major league job and wound up tooling around the minors hoping for an injury or a major slump in the majors to create a spot to join the majors once again.  Guys like Jackie Bradley, Jr., Mike Brosseau and Luke Ritter are doing alright but aren’t even on the 40-man roster.  Then again, if the need arose the Mets could can someone not destined to be a part of the future like D.J. Stewart. 

Then there are older players whose prospect window has closed who could be fringe additions like the trio of 27 year olds Ty Adcock, Max Kranick and Eric Orze.  There are other players like Joey Lucchesi who played themselves off the roster.

A name familiar to the fans who saw him collapse in Florida is reliever Shintaro Fujinami.  Everyone knows he throws hard and a guy who can fan batters in a crucial late game situation are key cogs to a team’s pennant drive.  Unfortunately over his 20 games this season he owns an ugly 6.95 ERA so it is unlikely he would contribute much in September.

Right now it doesn’t appear there is much immediate help in Syracuse.

Tom Brennan: Ramblings on Mets Drafting, Catching….and A J Ewing

 

 NY Mets Catcher Francisco Alvarez

DRAFTING

Edwin Diaz, without sticky fingers, hung a game winning, stomach-turning, season-altering slider-turned-homer to Jackson Merrill, 21 year old center fielder of the Padres. 

Merrill was drafted 27th overall in 2021, the year of the Mets’ abortive pick of Kumar Rocker at # 10.

Obviously, one would think that had the Mets passed on Rocker, they would not have picked Merrill, who was chosen 17 picks later. But they would have hit the lottery if they had.

Merrill, just 21 years old, with 19 HRs, 75 RBIs, and a .290 average in this, his rookie campaign. Sensational.

Why do the Mets never get guys like this late in the first round? 

One reason is you have to have an excellent record to draft late in round 1, which rarely occurs in Metsville. 

But the Mets have had 4 hitter picks around 10 or 11 overall in the first round, over the past dozen years with any sort of high minors or MLB tack record:

Conforto, Smith, Baty, and Parada. Only Conforto seems to somewhat approach what Merrill looks like he will be in his career. And he was an early first rounder, not a late one.

Only Pete (64th overall) has proven to be an excellent offensive draft pick. And he made the majors when he was 3 years older than Merrill.

Pete Crow Armstrong is picking up steam in Chicago and may be another decent first rounder yet, and is still just 22.

Jared Kelenic (6th overall) is not great, with just 1 WAR in his career of 1,249 at bats thus far. A seeming Baty hitting clone. Or Dom Smith clone, take your pick.

If Kevin Parada had a catcher’s name that described his pro game so far, it would be Nick Swisher. If only he can someday hit like Nick who, of course, was not a catcher. He’ll make good major league $, though, if he can someday hit like John Buck, who was a catcher.

Buck, drafted not (of course) by the Mets, but as late as in the 7th round, nonetheless played in the majors for a long time and drove in 60 runs in 2013 for the Mets in 101 games. 

I find myself criticizing Mets’ drafting a lot. It’s a quirk.

CATCHING

We love our Francisco.

But our energetic young catcher’s career totals are:

627 at bats, .219/.290/.418, 32 HRs, 92 RBIs. 15% caught stealing. 

No doubt, Houston fans love their catcher, Yainer Diaz, too. Career?

833 at bats, .291/.317/.491, 39 HRs, 133 RBIs. 27% caught stealing.

Far superior to our Francisco.

 - Would you trade Alvarez for Diaz, straight up?

I wondered if, when the Mets roster expands, one call-up could be Austin Allen, a catcher hitting .280 in AAA with pop.  But he has only gunned down 5 of 71 base stealers in just 36 games, so I’d say no to that. And C Hayden Senger has been on the IL for 7 weeks.

The Mets just need Alvarez and Torrens to tear up September (and the last few days of August).

AJ EWING

Dude got accolades after snapping out of a hitting funk in St Lucie by going 15 for 29, with 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, and 6 walks in a brief stretch. His stock is rising, Patrick Ewing told me.

SAVAGE VIEWS – GM FOR A DAY

It’s a special honor to fill the open position of General Manager, at least for a day. My goal is to assemble a team that will contend for a World Series title in 2025.  My approach is rather simple – start with a pitching staff that ranks among the best in MLB.

PARING THE ROSTER

The first move would be to move on from the pitchers who are not part of the future. Reed Garrett, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana, Sean Reid-Foley, Luis Severino and Ryan Stanek are the six pitchers that should have a future elsewhere.

As much as I’d like to see the Mets bring back Pete Alonso, I believe his salary demands exceed his value.  If he seeks more than a four-year deal for about $100M, he will likely accept an offer from another team.

Jose Iglesias – another fan favorite who will seek greener pastures elsewhere.  

Harrison Bader – no room for him on next year’s roster.

JD Martinez – No place on the team for a one-dimensional player. While he has been somewhat productive this season and a mentor to the younger players, he will be a year older and presumably less productive. I prefer the DH spot be rotated among several players needing a day off. For example, McNeil, Marte and Alvarez.

KEY ADDITIONS

Corbin Burnes – In order to be truly competitive next year, the first order of business is to strengthen the starting staff.  Corbin automatically becomes the ace.  Also, Scott Manaea should be resigned to a contract not exceeding three years. Imagine a rotation of Burnes, Senga, Scott, Manaea, Peterson and Paul Blackburn bringing up the rear with Brandon Sproat almost ready to step up. This is a group with the potential to go deep in games and relieve the stress on the bullpen.

THE PEN

The bullpen needs to be overhauled. The only players locked in for next year are Diaz, Butto and Nunez. That means at least four players will need to be added. Internal candidates include Tyler Megill, Dom Hamil, Mike Vasil, Danny Young, Huascar Brazoban and Phil Maton. Hopefully Brook Raley will be ready to return. Most likely one or two free agents will be added to the mix.

THE LINEUP

Our wish is to sign Juan Soto to a very long deal. I find it hard to believe the Yankees will let him sign with the Mets. They will probably do whatever is necessary to retain him. Therefore, I am planning for a year with no Alonso or Soto. 

• First Base – Mark Vientos. Mark projects to be a solid hitter with the potential to hit more than 40 homers. His best position is probably first.

• Second Base – Ronny Mauricio. Ronny is a legitimate five tool player with a combination of speed and power. Someone who could steal in excess of 50 bases.

• Shortstop – Franciso Lindor. Lindor has established himself to be one of the top players in the game. At the minimum, we expect another 30-30 season.

• Third Base – Brett Baty. – Baty has served his apprenticeship and is ready to fulfill his role as the third baseman of the future.  Another guy capable of hitting at least 30 homers with solid defense at third.

• Left Field – a platoon of Tyrone Taylor and Jesse Winker. An area that may need to be upgraded. Drew Gilbert will be an option when he is ready.

• Center Field – Brandon Nimmo. Another guy capable of hitting 20-25 homers with a good OBP.  Hopefully, recovers from a mediocre 2024.

• Right Field – Starling Marte. When healthy a productive bat whose spot in the lineup can possibly be challenged by Drew Gilbert.

• Catcher – Franciso Alvarez. The expectation is that he will recover from the “sophomore blues” and become a dynamic player. Another potential 35-40 home run hitter.

• DH – Jeff McNeil. Jeff becomes the super utility player who can play a multitude of positions. Capable of hitting 15-20 homers. This is a rotational spot with Marte, Alvarez and Vientos sharing this role with Jeff.

• Bench – includes Luis Torrens, Taylor or Winker, Luisangel Acuna and a free agent to be signed.

My major concern is lack of depth to fill in for the inevitable injuries sure to occur. Our top prospects are at least a year away from being contributors. It’s going to be an interesting off-season.

Ray

August 27, 2024

MACK - Tuesday Morning Observations - 2026

 

Observations –

 

Someone asked me what I see this team becoming in 2026.

This is what I see…

 

1B – IN PLAY… I would move on from Pete Alonso. That’s just me. We all would love Juan Soto to be on this team next season, but, it’s highly unlikely. My hope is they would take this off-season’s dead money + Pete’s bucks and go get at least one of the top starters that will be available in this off season. We’ll revisit this when we get to the starter portion of this article. As for first, Ryan Clifford could fit in well here, but he also can play an adequate corner. A safer choice on my team is Mark Vientos. By 2026, he will easily produce home runs at the Alonso level.

 

2B – IN PLAY… Jeff McNeil has a contract through 2026, with a club option through 2027. Very desirable to other teams looking for a professional bat that can play this position, as well the corners. I love what he is doing right now, but will be still be producing at this level two seasons from now? Middle infielders are very important to the success of teams. Their defense, as well as centerfielders, pitchers, and catchers, make or break a season. 

By 2027, if Jeff is still on the team, I would make him a super utility player. If not, I want someone that is faster and plays better defense. That would be Luisangel Acuna (who also plays ++ centerfield). I believe by 2027 his offensive output will be at a pro-level. Note… because of McNeil’s current age, moving him in a trade would make much more sense THIS off-season.

 

SS – TAKEN… Baseball’s top shortstop, Francisco Lindor, has a contract through 2031. He ain’t going nowhere for quite a while. I don’t need to spend much time here.

 

3B – IN PLAY… I don’t have Mark Vientos playing here in 2027, no less 2028. My choice is Ronny Mauricio. Third base is his more comfortable position, though he also plays a credible short and second. Next season could be a maturation year for him (as second base would be for Luisangel Acuna, if Jeff McNeil is traded this off-season). I look for big things from Ronny, come 2026.

 

LF – TAKEN… Brandon Nimmo has a contract through 2030. Sure, he can play center, but the Mets have better defensive centerfielders in play here. Nimmo is also one of the clubhouse leaders, which means a lot to the other players on this team. The Mets lineup will be much younger by 2026 and guys like Nimmo and Francisco Lindor will be the mentors going forward

 

CF – IN PLAY… There will be options here. Nimmo could move back here and he would do an adequate job. Acuna is projected to be better defensively. But Drew Gilbert fits perfectly here. A power hitter plus a ++ centerfield defensive game. I have 2025 as a transition year for him from AAA, but he should be solidly in place here for 2026.

 

RF – IN PLAY… Starling Marte will be gone. Lots of options here… Acuna could play here… someone from the outside… or Ryan Clifford. But me? I have the only person currently in the minor leagues that has 50 stolen bases,50 runs scored, 50 walks, and hitting .300. This would be a fast-paced Nick Morabito, another centerfielder with a quality glove and exceptional speed. Nick is dominating Brooklyn this year and I see no reason why he couldn’t use next season to blow through both AA and AAA.

 

C – TAKEN… Francisco Alvarez will not be a free agent until 2029. He’s currently 22 and is getting better t this every year. I see him as a .260/25-HR guy with great defensive chops and a sharp command of the pitchers he catches. They love him and he will be around for a long time..

           

SP1 – TAKEN… Kodai Senga is under contract through 2027, with a vesting for 2028. He’s my “Friday Starter” unless a better one is signed that is currently pitching for another team.

SP2 – IN PLAY… this would go to either Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, or Blake Snell. I would throw stupid money at all three of these in this upcoming off-season, with the message to them that two of these offers will be pulled back as soon as one of these pitchers agrees to become a Met. They would all be in the 3-year range, with a possible additional year team option.

SP3 – TAKEN… Christian Scott will not be a free agent until well after 2028. 2025 should be the perfect season for him to mature, leading to a dominant year in 2026. I believe this is a special arm.

 

SP4 – TAKEN… David Peterson has passed the litmus test. He is now a legitimate major league starter. He is eligible to become a free agent in 2027. Hopefully, by 2027, he will cut back on the pitches and last a little onger in each start. If he doesn’t… fine… I can live with him as an SP4.

 

SP5 – IN PLAY… This is the year Brandon Sproat should begin to shine. Next season will be a transition year from AAA. He doesn’t become eligible for free agency until the next decade. Potentially, Sproat may wind up a front-end starter. He has the raw talent to do this. Only time will tell, but if he remains here, he could wind up the most talented SP5 in the league.

Tom Brennan: Did That Trumpet Guy Just Play Taps?

PLAYING A DIFFERENT TUNE THAN IN 2022

Back in 2022, the Mets won 101 games. 

Unlike other people, I declared Edwin Diaz the MVP of that  team, feeling that with just a normal, average closer, the Mets would’ve won only 90 or 91 games.

In that memorable year, before Edwin tore his eight tendon in spring of the following year, , Diaz was the beast of the bullpen of all of baseball, frequently hitting 100, 101, or 102 mph. Those speeds seem to be inaccessible to Edwin this year.

In 2022, Edwin had a 1.31 ERA, whereas this year, as he’s driving more in the slow lane, he has a more than double 3.62 ERA. I am sorry, they look identical, but these 2022 and 2024 hombres are two different individuals. 

He still strikes out a lot of guys, but not at the rate of 2022. 

In 2022 he was legendary and unstoppable. This year gives up a walk off Homer in a game that the Mets really needed to win. And that, of course, was after a game trying to run home run allowed by Jose Butto, who really served up a big, fat meatball to Profar to instantly turn a 2-0 lead into a tie score.

OVERALL?

I felt very good about this team three weeks ago. I can’t say that I feel the same way now. Maybe that’s something to do with my hearing the trumpet guy play Taps somewhere off in the distance.

BATY BROKEN FINGER ENDS SEASON:

What, really, can one say?

REMEMBER KUMAR?

He’s the first round guy (# 10 overall) in 2021 that the Mets passed on, due to health concerns.

That seemed to be a good move, as he needed TJS.

Well, this month in the AA minors, post TJS, 16.2 innings, 8 hits, 1 run, 3 walks, 25 Ks. BEING CLOCKED AT 100 MPH. NASTY SLIDER, TOO.

Looking like a potential future SP-1, perhaps?

Parada, the guy we drafted with the replacement pick the next year? 

The # 11 pick of 2022. 

Looked then like a great future catcher.

Looking now like a possible bust. 

He’d fan less, but his bat is riddled with holes. 158 Ks is 113 AA games.

Conclusion? Shoulda signed Kumar.  

Or drafted the next dude off the draft board, Brady House, who was picked at # 11 in 2021. He is 21 and looking very promising in AAA.

I understand the reluctance to stick with a possibly damaged Kumar after the Matt Allan debacle. But still…

Mets drafts in the past were conducted by knuckleheads. Admit it.

Let’s hope the Stearns cohort proves to be drastically better at the draft game.

Paul Articulates – Three ways to win a wild card

The New York Mets remained 2.5 games out of the last wild card position after yesterday’s tough loss to the Padres.  The Mets leave San Diego with a split series, which is what one would have hoped for given the Padres’ hot streak and the difficulty of flying west again.  However, after winning two of the first three and then leading by two going into the eighth inning, it was a difficult pill to swallow.  

Not to worry, baseball games are won or lost sometimes on a single pitch or a single swing of the bat.  Last night was two swings of the bat against two very good relievers so both Jose Butto and Edwin Diaz will have to have a short memory.  In a playoff chase, teams heat up and teams cool down.  I see the Padres cooling down and they will fall back into the pack.  The Braves are hanging by a thread with all of their injuries and I don’t think they have the players to withstand a challenge from a hot team.

So what does it take for the Mets to be that hot team that overtakes the crowd for one of the playoff spots?  I would argue that there are three ways they can get there.

1) Hitters need to hit.  In the last few months, Brandon Nimmo has been ice cold.  He has hit .188/.295/.313 in July and .194/.280/.361 in August.  That’s probably the longest slump he has endured in his professional career and it is due to end.  Increased production from Nimmo puts more men on base in front of two other hitters that are due for a surge.  JD Martinez is characterized by those who know as a “professional hitter”.  Even pros go through slumps, but JD is more likely to pull out of it quickly than most others.  

Given his .194/.284/.417 August, I would project that September will see his return to the form of someone who has compiled a .868 career OPS over 14 seasons.  Pete Alonso is also about ready to break out. He has struggled through a lackluster season on his final contract year, but I don’t expect it to continue.   

He has always been streaky, and a couple of hard hit balls recently are just what he needs to get the feel of his swing back.  I would expect him to put up big numbers in September in both RBI and XBH.  Francisco Alvarez is also a dangerous bat waiting to explode.  Hopefully his walk-off last Monday will propel him back to relevance. 

2) Starters figure it out.  The starting pitching for the Mets has been a weakness this year.  They have failed to go deep into ball games and hurt their chances by issuing too many walks.  Recently a few of the starters have shown signs that they have figured something out.  Sean Manaea has put together a string of solid starts as he attacks the top of the strike zone more often.  He could be a difference maker if he continues to throw like he has in August.  He has a 1.00 WHIP and a 3.38 ERA in the past month.  Luis Severino has also pitched better recently, posting an identical 3.38 August ERA and going deep into ballgames.  Many have wondered how his arm would fare this year with the increased number of innings he has thrown, but he does not look like a tired pitcher.  

David Peterson has also looked much better lately, as evidenced by Saturday’s 7.1 inning, 5 hit, 1 ER outing.  After an initial struggle on his return from the IL, Peterson has strung together some good starts and looks more confident than ever.

3) Strength through depth.  This is probably one of the least discussed topics this year, but the Mets have been able to maintain a pretty deep bench.  Guys like Iglesias, Taylor, Torrens, and most recently Winker have given the Mets the ability to rotate players through rest and keep them healthy.  As the summer wears on, less deep teams will begin to see stress cracks in their personnel, but the Mets can keep running fresh players out there.  

The depth allowed the Mets to withstand another Marte injury without a let-down like we saw in 2022.  Carlos Mendoza has the luxury of riding the hot hand in the month of September, as he has extras in both the infield, outfield, and behind the plate that can hold their own.

It is always a challenge to put on a run in September to overcome several hungry playoff-ready teams, but if the Mets can master at least two out of these three areas in the coming month, we could see playoff baseball again this year.  Let’s go Mets!