11/13/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-13-13 – Shortstop, Charlie Blackmon, Phillies, FA-SP, MLB 50 Free Agent Predictions

avatar - atlanta burbsJoel Sherman -

Mets shortstops produced a .561 OPS last year, the worst by the franchise since the .478 of 1977, when the Mets’ primary shortstops were Bud Harrelson, Doug Flynn, Mike Phillips and, yep, Bobby Valentine. Ruben Tejada and Omar Quintanilla were better than that. But not by enough. Consider there were 337 players with 225 or more plate appearances last year, and Tejada’s .519 OPS ranked 336th. Combine that with the Mets’ persistent worries that Tejada does not work hard enough and the organization — as with Ike Davis — appears determined to stop waiting for a player they once believed in to honor that trust with consistent performance. Tejada, still just 24, is going to have to rebuild his value as a backup or elsewhere — he is out of minor league options. http://nypost.com/2013/11/11/mets-top-priority-is-shortstop-but-theyre-not-alone/

Mack – Sandy Alderson has one primary goal at this week’s managers meeting and that is to leave with a new shortstop. I just don’t see things moving that fast because there are other teams out there looking to improve at this position and there are only a limited amount of decent names available this off-season. As Sherman pointed out, it looks better and better every day financially for the Mets to have kept Jose Reyes on their team. Players like Stephen Drew are going to get very close to making the same money. (shaking head)

 

Jan Groot asked  -

Mack, yesterday you posted this on your website… “I hope they target Peralta as their first major FA move, pull off a trade for either Cuddyer or Fowler”

I agree on Peralta. He should be the first. But when you contact the Rockies about Cuddyer or Fowler, perhaps the Mets could focus on…..nope not Cargo…….but Charlie Blackmon, their 4th outfielder. With Cuddyer most likely moved to 1st could the Mets offer Duda or Davis. Don’t know who is preferred. Who do you prefer? I haven’t made up my mind yet.

Here are Blackmon’s numbers from 2013: 246-AB, .309/.336/.467/.803, 49-K, 7-BB.

Small Sample Size, I know. But has potential. 7 walks vs 49 SO is not great but you are talking about 82 games. But with Cargo, Fowler and Cuddyer no room when those 3 stay healthy. And he can play all 3 positions.

What do you think of a David Murphy and Brennan Boesch platoon? They make a nice platoon.

Murphy 280/347/469 career vs rhp

Boesch 284/346/417 career vs lhp

Your thoughts?

Take care and stay healthy.

Mack – Thanks, Jan. The secret of any trade or free agent is did your team improve themselves from the previous year’s choice to play the same position.

I still think of last year’s Mets outfield as Eric Young Jr., Juan Lagares, and Marlon Byrd. I can’t honestly say that Blackmon projects as an improvement over Byrd, but he could easily be an improvement over EJY. He’s young (27 next year) and has always hit for average (MLB-3/yr: .291).

But… I would be disappointed if Blackmon was the only addition in the outfield.

As for Murphy/Boesch, I hate platoons. I’m sorry, I just do. Matt den Dekker will probably spell Lagares. I would say pick the guy that is best defensively and using him as a late inning replacement.

 

LHRP Chase Huchingson is headed to Venezuela to play winter ball. 2013 Bing stats: 45-G, 67.0-IP, 3-2, 1.61, 68-K, 29-BB

 

One thing about the off-season… we have been reading and writing about hundreds of scenarios involving teams and players, but no one had the Philadelphia Phillies as being the first team to pull off a decent deal, and absolutely no one had Marlon Byrd going to them also. The reason is simple… all parties involved kept their mouths shut, didn’t bother throwing impromptu press conferences where one-liners could be tossed around… no, they just got on the phone, or their hand held and got the deal done. Don’t be surprised if he Phillies don’t become one of the most active teams here. Kudos to their brass for getting a deal done without all the hoopla.

Right now, the Mets are far from upgrading their 2013 team. They have signed no one and first needs to find someone to produce the 21-HR/71-RBIs he produced for the Mets last season.

 

Steve Adams ‏@Adams_Steve  - Spoke with J.P. Ricciardi regarding the Mets offseason and got the sense that they may not pursue free agent SPs much at all.

Mack – This actually makes a lot sense to me, if the money that is available to spend this off-season is used for better bats, not put back in the special checking account. All reports I keep getting is Jenrry Mejia will be ready on opening day. I’ve also been told by multiple sources that the target date for Noah Syndergaard is July 1st. So, you have three months of baseball where you need an SP5 to join Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and Mejia.

Internal options are Carlos Torres, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Heffner.

 

MLB 50 Free Agent Predictions –

13. Curtis Granderson, Mets - The Mets have a plethora of holes to fill specifically in the lineup, which is quite bare. Granderson can handle the pressure of playing in the big apple and will enjoy his salary. The Mets forfeit their 2nd round pick.

31. Tim Hudson, Mets - The Mets are flush with cash and Hudson could replace a hole created by Matt Harvey

 44. Joe Smith, Mets - Joe Smith would be a nice reliever to add to a below par bullpen.

                http://mlbreports.com/2013/11/12/50mlbfa2013fall/

 

P Alberto Baldonado was named the MVP of the Pan-American sub-21 tourney. He was 2-0 w/ 0.00era in 11ip w/ 22k. The 20-yr. old lefty pitched Kingsport in 2013: 14-G, 29.2-IP, 2-0, 3.94, 41-K,14-BB.

 

Sandy Alderson on OFs –

"We might bring in more than two starting outfielders. Who knows how things are going to break. I’d be surprised if that happens, only because there’s so much interest in corner outfielders among many clubs."

Mack – Again, my first thoughts are that Alderson should take a band aid and put it across his lips. Stop all this ‘maybe we’ll do this or maybe we’ll do that’ bullshit and just go meet with somebody and get something done. I remind him of one thing… the quickest way of getting the second guy to sign is to excite him when he reads about the first guy that signed. Everybody wants to be on a winner and a team that is moving forward. All of us have different opinions on whether or not Curtis Granderson should be signed. Well, you go sign him and other players will call their agents and ask them to check out what’s going on with the Mets. That’s how this works.Play it cute like you did with Upton last year and you open camp with your dick in your hand. 

 

Did Marlon Byrd sign too early?

Well, let’s put it this way. You’re in your mid-30s… you get suspended from your job for doing drugs… someone offers you a one year contract for around 25% more than the minimal amount anyone can be paid per your union contract… and now, when you’re thinking about possibly retiring, someone comes along and wants you to play baseball on their team for… $16,000,000.

I’m surprised it took him this long. 

 

Just so we all know what has been done so far…

The loss of OF Marlon Byrd and C John Buck represents a loss of 36-HRs and 131-RBIs that have not been made up yet. Both were potential free agents and would have signed elsewhere anyway so any return was a good one.

The additions so far have been RP Victor Black (15-G, 3-0, 3.46), and minor leaguers IF Dilson Herrera, OF Anthony Seratelli, and RP Joel Carrero. Black and Herrera are both potential long term major leaguers so I consider this return for Byrd and Buck to be outstanding.

10 comments:

Christopher said...

A bit of emphasis on the Marlon Byrd deal.

The contract is for 2 years/$16M WITH a 3rd year $8MM vesting option.

If Marlon reaches 600 PA's in 2015 or 1,100 total PA's in '14/'15 the option automatically kicks in. If he does not, it becomes a club option.

The 3rd year offering was more than any other team was willing to give so it made sense for Byrd to jump on it while he had the opportunity.

Mack Ade said...

in a heart beat

Michael Scannell said...

As far as pitching, no need for the Mets to spend much on it other than placeholders if Mejia will be in the rotation next year.

When 2015 rolls around, at minimum they'd have Harvey, Syndergaard, Niese, and Wheeler. Whoever comes in now is just marking time.

I just hope whatever lineup moves are made are done so with the big picture in mind.

Charley said...

They need to get their collective heads out of their asses, the entire front office and ownership, and realize that they're severely under funding this team in today's market.

Going back to last off season, the market for the slightly above average player skyrocketed. Players like Keppinger and Melky Cabrera got paid big bucks. Now Bryd gets paid handsomely.

They have preached 2014 and now it's too late to hide from their own words. 40 million isn't going to get it done. They need to raise payroll to 115-120 million or else they'll be in the cellar once again.

And you're right Mack, the one liners from Sandy are getting old.

Mack Ade said...

Charley, all you have to do is pay $15-18mil a year for 3-yrs to 3 players... a SS and two OFs...

Your team is an instant contender and your payroll is around $105-110

Michael S. said...

Mack - I can't understand this nickel and dime BS when just for a little bit more the team can return to relevancy and revenues will increase. I thought the owners were in business to make money. If 2014 is like 2013 Citi will be a graveyard by the summer...especially with no Harvey Nights.

Mack Ade said...

No one seems to understand it including members of the organization.

This is why players don't sign with this team. They want no part of it especially if they can get the same kind of money elsewhere.

Herb G said...

Regarding your trade with Colorado, Cuddyer would be fine if Ike has been traded, (I'd rather see Cuddyer at 1B than Duda) but stay away from Fowler. He's a career .241 hitter (sub .700 OPS) away from Coors. And he has a negative dWAR.

Re: Next year's rotation, I guess you are ignoring Montero because you think he will be gone soon. But if they keep him, he is a viable candidate for the rotation come April. Her is ready to pitch in the bigs now, in my opinion. A rotation of Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia and Montero coming out of spring training would be fine with me.

Phil said...

This routine is starting to get old. Sandy is always making empty promises only to backtrack on them a few weeks later. It is becoming more and more likely that we are in for another season like 2013.

I was willing to give this organization the benefit of the doubt, but this offseason is where they need to take the next step. They need to have a major league roster instead of washed up or not ready AAA players.

If they totally backoff and do not at least start upgrading the OF, SS andf 1B (they don't have to accomplish all but at least 2 new bats would be nice), I will have to start questioning whether I should keep investing myself in this.

They are starting to act like the girlfriend, who hasn't quite left yet, but has already put you on the pay no mind list.....lol

Mack Ade said...

Now, per Adam Rubin, the Mets are backing off Granderson.

I absolutely hate the way the Mets brass play their stupid games with the beat reporters. We all know that the job of the reporters is to not judge and only to print what they are told by reliable sources.

Sometimes I really wish we could go back to the world before there was Twitter.