Mack Ade – Morning Report – 11-3-13 – Ricardo Cespedes, Noah Syndergaard, Dr. James Andrews, Bronson Arroyo, Cesar Puello

Baseball America –

On the international front, the Mets traded with the Angels to acquire bonus pool space, giving them a budget of more than $3 million. They invested nearly $2.5 million to sign five international players in 2013, headlined by Dominican outfielder Ricardo Cespedes ($725,000), Venezuelan catcher Ali Sanchez ($690,000) and Venezuelan shortstop Luis Carpio ($300,000).

Mack – Player like this are a long way off, if ever, but it was a great move to secure $ from LAA to help add to the international pool. The Mets need to add at least three quality international signings per year to guarantee a decent return someday in Queens.

We never had to question Omar Minaya’s commitment to Latin America and, in fact, the Latin pool seemed much more important to him than the draft. Then Sandy fired most of Minaya’s (Tony B) scouts and the system seem to get stalled for a few years. The quality and depth of your scouting system is the key to being successful in this game and everything seems to be back on track now.

 

Grading The Curve –

                #38 – Noah Syndergaard, right-handed pitcher, New York Mets

Height/Weight: 6’5″, 200  Born: August 29, 1992 (age 21)

2013 Stats (Between High-A and Double-A): 9-4, 3.06 ERA, 23 GS , 117 IP, 28 BB (2.1 BB/9), 133 K (10.2 K/9), 1.147 WHIP

Heading into 2013…Acquired from Toronto as part of the R.A. Dickey swap, the Mets had high expectations for Syndergaard, a big right hander with above average command of his plus fastball and change.

 High-A is a big one, and the one from High-A to Double-A is even bigger leap, but the 21 year old handled both gracefully in 2012. He put up a 3.11 ERA with a 2.3 BB/9 and 9.0 SO/9 over 12 starts in the FSL (High-A) before improving to a 3.00 ERA, 2.0 BB/9, and 11.5 SO/9 in 11 Double-A starts. His numbers may be even better, but the Mets tried to ease the wear on his arm by cutting his innings down the stretch.

Looking ahead…Syndergaard will likely report to AAA to start 2014, but he could join the Mets’ rotation by June. His ceiling is a no.2 starter, and he’s more than likely to be at least a number four.  Stock: Up

                Mack – I was surprised that Thor was listed this low on the prospect list. I’d be thrilled if he turned out to be an effective SP3 behind Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler.

 

Dr. James Andrews –

“Everything went well with him. He’s a real, real hard worker. Whatever you tell him to do, he’s gonna do it and he’s gonna do fine. Tell everybody to relax and let him do his rehab, take his time and don’t rush him and he should have a very good outcome.”

Mack – What do you expect him to say… ‘I screwed everything up and he won’t be able to throw a paper cup until the age of 50…”

I am glad to hear Andrew’s spin on this. He has always been a no BS guy who tells it like it is and no one knows more than him that this has become a routine procedure.

Mark my word… Matt Harvey will be in uniform this year… down in Florida… throwing off the mound. It may not be for quite a while (even after the season), but it will be in 2014 and it will set up a full return in 2015.

 

Bronson Arroyo –

If they are going to have any chance of staying relevant in 2014, the Mets will almost certainly have to lure someone like Bronson Arroyo to help the rotation. While the Mets have not contacted Arroyo yet, that should change.

“Bronson is an East Coast guy and would definitely consider the Mets,” Arroyo’s agent, Terry Bross, said. “But we’re going to take our time with this.” http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/02/bronson-arroyo-would-definitely-consider-signing-with-the-mets/

Mack – The article goes on to say: “Arroyo, 36, posted a 3.79 ERA and 124/34 K/BB ratio over 32 starts this season and has logged at least 199 innings in each of the last nine seasons.” He’s looking for a two year deal which could fit into the Mets plans if Rafael Montero goes eventually to the pen or either Jon Niese or Dillon Gee is dealt off in a future trade.

Arroyo is exactly the kind of innings eater the Mets are looking for to hold the fort down in 2014 while Matt Harvey heals and join the back end of the 2015 rotation behind Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard. The quality and depth of your rotation gets a lot better overnight with an addition like this.

Money wise, he made $16,445,533 last year and there’s nothing in his 2013 numbers that say he should make less in 2014. 

This kind of deal could take up to $18mil in 2014 and $20mil in 2015.

For me, a definite upgrade to options like Dice-K, Jeremy Heffner, and Aaron Harang.

 

Baseball America –

Cesar Puello, of, Mets: Puello made real adjustments to his generate more loft with his swing, but he was also suspended 50 games for his involvement with Biogenesis, putting questions around how much of his performance was chemically enhanced. From a practical standpoint, playing for the Toros in the Dominican League will help him make up for some of the time he lost at the end of the season, although given how many games he’s missed it wouldn’t be a surprise if he struggled to find his timing. http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/nin-key-players-to-watch-in-winter-ball/

                Mack – And he has, going .192 in 26 at bats so far.

Let me say this up front. I don’t expect a Carlos Beltran here. Puello will become a starter and put up 3-4 good years in his prime, but that’s about it. Pre-biogeneis, I would have said he was a ‘Lagares on steroids’ type hitter, but that would be a bad joke now. He’ll never be a Darryl Strawberry, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a Mookie Wilson, the second banana in the outfield.

 

And lastly, here's what our friends at MLBTR predicts the Mets will sing this free agent season: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Curtis Granderson - Mets.  After a pair of 40 home run seasons, Granderson lost most of 2013 to separate incidents in which a pitch broke a bone (his forearm and a finger).  Granderson is "widely regarded as one of the most amiable players in the game," noted MLBTR's Steve Adams, who predicted a three-year, $45MM contract.  Aside from the fact that he'll play next year at age 33, one factor that might hurt Granderson's market value is if he receives and turns down a qualifying offer from the Yankees.  As of press time, the Yankees are undecided on making the qualifying offer according to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News, while agent Matt Brown says it's possible they could accept if offered.  If he does hit the market, the Mets have to come away with some kind of decent outfielder, and Granderson is capable of playing all three positions.  Granderson is a Chicago guy, and the Cubs or Sox could make it work.  

Stephen Drew - Mets.  Drew signed a one-year, $9.5MM make-good contract with the Red Sox last December, and for the most part he did just that.  Drew, 31 in March, played in 120+ games for the first time since 2010 despite enduring a hamstring injury.  Though he weathered a postseason slump, Drew has an above-average bat for a shortstop.  He excelled defensively during the regular season and on the big stage in the playoffs.  Drew will probably be dragging a qualifying offer around, but his competition is light on the shortstop market.  Agent Scott Boras has a shot at four years at more than $10MM annually.  The Red Sox may feel they have a ready replacement in Xander Bogaerts, so the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates are Drew's most likely suitors.  

Bronson Arroyo - Mets.  Arroyo is the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005-13.  Arroyo, 37 in February, is the game's most consistent innings-eater.  It appears he'll move on from the Reds after eight seasons, probably without a potentially budget-busting qualifying offer.  I've pegged Arroyo at two years and $24MM, which could be palatable for the Mets, Twins, Giants, and several other teams looking to solidify the backend of their rotation. 

Roy Halladay - Mets.  Halladay, 37 in May, had a brutal 2013.  He had shoulder surgery in May, coming back for six starts toward the end of the season.  His final outing was particularly bad, as he topped out at 83 miles per hour before being pulled.  The former ace is a complete unknown for 2014, but a one-year deal is the only possibility.  I think a team with Spring Training in Florida could be a factor for Halladay.  Doc could wait to sign during the season, to ensure his health is where it needs to be.

Mack - I'm speechless.

 

(hectic week coming up... Tuesday extensive blood tests, more Xray screening... Wednesday: CT scan... Friday: lung biopsy... this is the fastest I could get the VA to act upon this. Light a candle, guys)