Darnell James -
Hey Mack! Hope all is well.
My interesting topic for the 'War Room' is.... Who is your Mets minor league prospect pegged for a major breakout season. Last year was Cesar Puello, followed by strong showings from other players in the system. Who's due for a hot year coming up?
The annual GM/Owners meetings begin tomorrow morning (for three days) in Orlando, Florida. Most of what will happen during the offseason will either begin or end here.
I talked to someone in Florida who told me not to expect the Mets to sign any of the top players available in this free agent market. Instead, they are expected to sign 6-8 lower echelon players to fill in their 25-man while their current and future rotation heal and mature. You’ll probably see a bunch of one and two year deals.
Remember… it’s tough to sell the Mets image to your client if you are over 30 and looking for your last contract while, at the same time, trying to win a World Series ring. The Mets are far away from that and playing for the Wilpons is not high on anyone’s list (including his own children).
So… let’s talk secondary players.
Who are some of the Corey Hart’s of the world out there that we should sign for one or two years until some of our kids mature?
31 comments:
I'll start rooting for the pirates if they sign 6-8 players on 1 year deals. That's complete bullshit. Bigger slap in the face to fans than signing nobody. Spend some god damn money on some proven bats. Two $15M bats would go a long way in the lineup.
Morning, Kevin.
I understand how you feel, but I think we need to wait this out and see how the meeting go next week.
The one thing I can tell you... there are some genuine big name beat writers that are saying that the Mets are going to sign a bunch of guys like Choo and company. Writers usually don't stick their necks out this far unless they know something you and I don't.
It's way too early to predict what they'll do, and it's too Wally to start listening to anonymous sources. There's no telling how the off season will unfold.
Who could've predicted that Toronto would've traded DarNo last off season when it started. That trade only happens if the marlins freaked half their roster away to Toronto, which in turn made Toronto a win now team.
Now the Mets have perhaps their future catcher and a current top five pitching prospect in MLB in Thor. The point is, nobody knows how this all will shake out.
I believe they want to change the perception that they are still dumpster diving and will look to make a decent sized splash. However, it's way too early in the off season for any team to make such a splash. Agents want time to raise the value of their clients' contracts, so nobody is jumping at the first offer.
This is going to take some time, so we might as well be patient and wait and see how things shake out.
Regarding what Darnell asked, I'm going out on a limb here.
I expect catcher Xorge Carillo to step up and become the starting catcher in Las Vegas. Carillo was (I think) a 14th rounder in 2011 out of Arizona State who hasn't been a starter yet for any of the Mets affiliates, but he hit close to .300 last year for Binghamton in 100+ at bats and is currently doing the same in winter ball.
My guess is Centeno will back up d'Arnaud in Queens and Blake Forsythe will be the Vegas backup. This will give time for Plawecki to mature in AA ball.
A decent year from Carillo, plus the maturing of Plawecki, will give the Mets multiple options behind the plate.
Charlie -
Just a clarifications. ALL 'sources' are anonymous. They are so you continue to receive information from that person. Mine could be Sandy Alderson (though it's not)and all I can do is pass on what I'm told.
I'm different than you... I listen to everything someone tells me, especially if it is someone being paid by the industry.
You are correct however, saying everything is too early. No agent of any to client wants to be the first person to ink a deal.
I expect a couple more minor league deals today or tomorrow.
We'll see.
I know Mack. That was the first statement that truly frustrated me. Bottom line is this team has to Improve. Not just try to improve but actually do it. Signing a bunch of guys like Byrd and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle like last year is not gonna fly with this fan base.
We deserve at least 2 legit bats to be added to this team and they are out there. I truly think they are going to try very hard to sign Granderson & Peralta. I just hope they are aggressive enough. If they need to throw an extra $2M per year at them, then do it.
Mack I'm sure you read John Harper's article this morning with a few very interesting trade proposals and want to know what you think especially regarding the minor league players mentioned
I haven't read that... do you have a link?
Kevin... one think I want to remind us all.
I know we all want better 'bats', but the future of this team is through pitching and, if you are going to have a pitcher-based team, you need excellent defense in the field.
Guys like Peralta offer a better bat but could really hurt us in the field.
I just read it.
Harper seems to have too much time on his hands while, at the same time, an editor demanding 800 words.
Yeah... let's spend years building a pitcher-based team and then just throw it all away in one off season.
I can't see any deal involving either Wheeler, Syndergaard, Gee, or Niese. These are your future.
If “break-out” means “was the radar working?” I would agree with Mack that Xorge Carillo is a good candidate—although Juan Centeno might still qualify in that category.
If the definition of break out can be extended to that “yeah, yeah. Nice UT guy, maybe” who just won’t go quietly away—until you have to consider him seriously—then I’m putting some bucks on Lee Mazzilli Jr.
And there’s always Angel Cuan.
Mets fans need to be reminded that Junior never came to the Mets as a prospect, yet he has put up some good initial numbers. It will be interesting to see how he progresses this season.
Peralta isn't a bad defender. If they added Peralta and Granderson, they would have an average or better defender at every position with 2 gold glove caliber defenders at 3B and CF. In the NL you can't have 2 guys who are all glove and no bat. We have our glove in CF. Hopefully his bat continues to progress. There is no perfect player, especially at SS. Even Tulo has issues. Simmons has his offensive limitations. Peralta is definitely one of the best offensive SS options who plays average defense.
I get what your saying Mack. I just don't want to see Tejada, Young & Lagares in the same lineup.
"Who are some of the Corey Hart’s of the world out there that we should sign for one or two years until some of our kids mature?"
For LF I am thinking David Murphy (hopefully the 2012 version). Perhaps a platoon with Brennan Boesch. David had a bad year and will sign for a year when given the LF job. He wants to prove last year was not the player he is but he is the 2012 David Murphy.
For RF Marlon Byrd?
For SS Peralta? No kids in the upper minors so 3 years with a 4th team option?
For the loss of Harvey, Josh Johnson/Phil Hughes? Both want a 1 year to build up value so they can sign a "big" contract next winter.
A #5 with a 200+ innings arm, Capuano? Kazmir? Feldman? Plenty of those type of pitchers. And stretch Mejia out in Las Vegas to become a starter in 2015.
I'm not sure if this would qualify as a breakout, but if Dustin Lawley can hit .275 in Vegas, there's a good chance he'll hit 35-40 bombs (assuming he plays the entire year there.) Given his under the radar status, that would open a lot of eyes. I also wouldn't be surprised in Brandon Nimmo put it together this year and hit .300+ with 40 doubles. Again, and for different reasons, I'm not sure if that qualifies as a breakout, but it sure would be nice to see.
At the big league level, I think they go full court press on Peralta (don't be surprised to hear about David Wright getting personally involved there), but not Choo (to expensive) or Granderson (too one-dimensional). I wouldn't be surprised either about a trade for Aoki and/or a 2-yr Byrd signing. I have, perhaps, higher expectations of Puello than many, but I believe that he's your long-term answer on one of the corners, and I think that the club will play it that way until proven otherwise.
all Nimmo has to do is stay healthy... the natural talent is there
I think Mejia needs to be with the Mets if he is anywhere near where he was before his bone chips were removed.
He will be on an innings limit. I think the question is, how should they use someone on an innings limit. I think in his case, shut him down in for April and have him for the rest of the year rather than shutting him down for September.
I get that Mack. I was trying to say that because of how early it is, the information could easily be tainted. It could be misinformation. I don't believe it's a good idea to lay out the plan through the media so early in the off season.
If the mets want Choo, for arguments sake, and are willing to give him a 100 million dollar contract, having a source leak that to the media is a bad idea. It gives Boras his starting point, instead of the ending point after the negotiations have been completed.
You see, it wouldn't shock me if the Mets went all out to sign Choo. If they were willing to give Bourn almost 50 million, then they probably wouldn't be that unwilling to give Choo a big contract when he is their prototypical model baseball player. An OBP machine, that when coupled with Wright, would create a great tandem in their lineup, while also sending a huge message to their fan base that they are once again a big player in free agency.
Yet all we've been hearing is how they will follow the Red Sox model from last year and that they will only spend about 30-35 million dollars in new payroll. It just doesn't make sense. They have too many holes to fill and too little money to spend to even make this team a .500 club. The market nowadays for an average player is huge. It's just not practical to think they can turn the page without a bigger investment by ownership.
The Wilpons know that their fan base is fed up and are unwilling to support any more nonsense from them concerning low payrolls when every other franchise is dumping more and more money into their team. At this point, they've run out of options because their system just isn't ready to support their team offensively. The bats must be brought in and it's going to cost. They know this.
They also know that the team, which is already on life support financially, won't begin to generate more revenue unless they put a team on the field that is instantly considered a playoff contender by simply looking at the 25 man roster. The increased revenue throughout baseball has shined a light on their finances and has disallowed them to continue operating at such a minuscule level; especially when 2/3 of ML teams are likely to have a payroll over 100 million in 2014. Simply put, being cheap isn't an option for them moving forward.
I was told late last month that he is basically 100% healed and awaiting his throwing schedule. You are right about a pitch count though.
I hope you are right Charley.
I want some meat on this team and I don't want it at the expense of our young pitchers (is Niese and Gee still 'young'?)
I believe three players will have good to great 2014 seasons... David Wright, Juan Lagares, and Travis d'Arnaud. All I want from Lagares is around .270 and, with his range and defense, we have the centerfielder the pitching staff needs to win games. I'm a complete convert regarding him. He's made me proud to have met and eaten with him.
I also thing this will be a breakout MLB year for Wilmer Flores but I don't have a position for him, so he's going to probably have to do it on another team.
Let Murphy give us .280, 15-HR, 65-RBI.... add .280, 2o-HR, 75-RBI from d-Arnaud, and another typical year from Wright and we are 3/8ths home...
I truly believe two big FA bats added to these three, plus the current pitching staff, can get us to at least 85-90 wins.
It may not make sense, but with the way the Red Sox story has been pumped by the Mets FO for the last two months, I could easily see them cheap out and then point to Boston's success for the low information fans out there. We know that the Red Sox had talent they added to but the Mets PR will be about the young pitching, Wright, Murphy, and d'Arnaud and these new pieces. We'll know better but the average fan won't. Those of us on blogs make up a small minority of fans.
Breakout - Nimmo
His plate discipline is amazing, he's a very good athlete, and he's just coming into his own. That wrist injury sapped a lot of his strength last year but when he was healthy he was gangbusters.
I'd like to see the Mets get a little creative with their money. Throw a ridiculous sum out to pay Tanaka's posting fee. Sign him, Josh Johnson and maybe another. Then they can use pitching depth to check in on guys like Profar and Cargo. I just don't see any free agent OFs or SS that really inspire the desire to spend a lot of money. Tanaka would be a fantastic PR move and Johnson is a great buy low guy.
I think Alderson realizes that he needs to make a splash if he is to re-energize the fans and begin putting more tushes in the seats at Citi. I look for at least one big FA signing (I am dubious of Choo, but Granderson or Peralta would qualify) OR one big trade (Kemp or Andrus would do it) to show he is serious. Beyond that, he could certainly look for players who are "buy low" but who could give us good numbers in 2014, but I wouldn't be too surprised to see him in on more of the good mid range players, either by FA signing or trade.
If he got a Granderson or Kemp, would you then be unhappy if he then signed David Murphy or Chris Young for the second outfield position, or if he traded for Aoki? Would Furcal be OK at short, and Phil Hughes for the rotation?
Actually, there are so many options out there, I can't believe that Alderson won't find good players to fill each of the holes and still stay within the $40 million or so he seemingly has to spend.
Breakout Season: I'll go out on a limb and pick Travis Taijeron. I think he will rake at Binghamton, hitting about .305 with 18 bombs before being promoted to Las Vegas, where he will continue to strafe the poor pitchers in the PCL.
I think after his huge steps backwards Jack Leathersich will put it together this year and return to the dominant pitcher he was at the lower levels. Of course, he'll likely be doing it for another franchise than the Mets as he is the kind of arm that other teams covet.
Breakout - Michael Fulmer. Will find his breaking ball along with improved fastball control and health this year (injury wasnt about his arm) will take a big step towards becoming an impact prospect.
I think there is a trade coming (Kemp or Either) and maybe peralta. id like to see either halladay or josh johnson on 1 year deals plus an option year.
Mack could you see the mets trading Murphy in a package for a power hitter and signing Peralta to play 2nd base. And play Tovar at short, or am i thinking to much.
on the breakout guy I'm with Adam. How cool would it be if Lawley really comes from almost nowhere because few ever talk about him except Mack and puts up serious power #'s and we see him by mid season.
Greg, I don't project Tovar as a major league starter
I like the Fulmer guess. This kid did awesome as a 19 yr old in full season ball. Last year was a wash, but he still has the arm and youth on his side.
I know Montero an Thor are the next wave if young arms. In 2015, when Harvey returns, Fulmer and Matz will be hopefully primed for their entry into the bigs as well, creating a wonderful problem with way too many young starters. Whatever this team lacks during the 2015 off season, they'll easily obtain it through trades thanks to these arms.
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