Mack Ade’s Personal First 19 Picks in the 2016 Draft



1.     Philadelphia  -  A.J. Puk – Florida - It’s going to be very hard for any team, no less the first one picking, to pass on this 6-7 lefty that regularly throws 98 mph fastballs. In the ’kids will be kids’ category, he did get into some trouble when he was arrested for trespassing on a construction site and there was issue with his shoulder (not arm) that slowed him up a litte this year, but did I mention he’s a 6-7 lefty with a 98 mph fastball?

All this translated into 14-starts, 2.88-ERA, and 90K in 65.2-IP

 2.     Cincinnati – What OF Corey Ray is doing this season in Louisville is becoming the works of a legend.

Hitting - Ray is a very raw athlete and has the makings of a future star with both contact and power potential. He has excellent bat speed and is great at using all fields. He does tend to strikeout too much and will need to improve in that area if he wants to remain a top prospect. Ray could potentially be a dynamic leadoff batter, but could also bat second or third depending on how his power develops.

Fielding - He fields all three outfield spots well and has plenty of range to go with a plus arm and a tremendous glove.

Baserunning - Fantastic baserunner with plus speed, has the potential to steal 30+ bases a season.

Power: 4/5  Run: 5/5  Arm: 4/5  Field: 4/5  Overall: 21/25
Potential: A-
2016 stats – 57-G, .326./.401OBP, 14-HR, 57-RBI, 239-AB, 34-K

3.     Atlanta – There’s been a lot of pro and con written about LHP Jason Groome, but no one has ever questioned that he probably goes into this draft with the most potential pitching talent in either college of high school ball.

The questioning involved his almost cavalier way of switching back to Barneget H.S. for his senior year without filling out the proper paperwork and waiting for an approval

Regardless of that, his pitching skills are sick.  He’s 6-6, has a 95-mph 4-seam fastball, 93-mph 2-seamer, a 92-mph sinker, an 81-mph curve, 79-mph slider, a 72-mph change, 69-mph circle-change, and a 66-mph knuckle curve.

2014: 0.57-ERA, 107-K in 61.1-IP
2015: 1.22-ERA, 81-K, 9-BB, 43-IP

It really doesn’t matter what school this kid goes to… he’s a very special pitcher.

4.     Colorado – Mercer OF Kyle Lewis is a genuine 5-tool player that simply will not fall out of the top five picks in this draft.

He can play all three outfield positions…
2015: .367, 17-HR
2016: .411, 17-HR, 64-RBI, .729 slugging percentage

Born to be a leadoff hitting.

5.     Milwaukee - On the 2nd Pick of the 2016 Draft, the Milwaukee Brewers should pick SS Delvin Perez

The tools are said to be out of this world. I've read in multiple places that Perez is likely to be the closest thing to a true "five tool player" in this draft. But how much of a flier is the team willing to take at a draft position where only one possible selection will be gone?

You'll likely hear (as I've already done) the inevitable comparison between Perez and Correa. But they're far from the same prospect; Correa was a much safer pick due to a more advanced hit tool when he was drafted

Keith Law on Perez - Perez was the star of MLB's 2016 Puerto Rico showcase, held this past week at Pedro Montanez Stadium in Cayey, with more than 130 players playing on four teams in the three-day event. Even with several potential Day 1 picks in the group -- all position players -- Perez was head and shoulders above everyone else, showing 70 speed, plus hands, a plus arm and plus raw power right now, with the broad shoulders to add plenty of muscle to his 6-foot-3, 160-pound (listed weight) frame.

John Sickles on Perez - The question for Perez is hitting. He has wiry strength and could grow into some power as he matures. He already has good bat speed and has made progress refining his hitting mechanics, but his strike zone judgement and ability to recognize breaking pitches need work. He should hit for average but without more progress with his approach his OBP may be too low for him to make full use of his above-average running speed on the bases.

This is a very poor year for shortstops so you have to draft the few A++ early.

6.     Oakland – Oakland should go with the best player available and they should be thrilled that the top right hand pitchers has fell into their laps.

6-4 Riley Pint throws both a 98-mph 2-seam and 4-seam fastball, backed up with a 82-mph knuckle-curve and a 85-mph change.
He went 8-0, 2.58 as a sophomore, 5-2, 2.20 as a junior, and is currently 10-1 so far this season.

Definitely SP1 material.

7.     Miami – Tennessee’s infielder Nick Senzel has consistently come in around sixth in most of the mock drafts and I have him in the seventh slot, going to the Marlins.

He has played all three infield positions, though he seems to be settling in at third.

2014: .315, 7-stolen bases
2015: .325, 14-SB
So far this season: .352

8.     San Diego – La Costa Canyon (CA) OF Mickey Moniak has been moving up the draft boards, passing Blake Rutherford as the top California high school outfielder.

Moniak hit .463 as a freshman, .426 as a sophomore, and ,488 as a junior. So far this season he is hitting a mere .461.

He’s a perfect centerfield prospect with power.

9.     Detroit – I’m going to go out on a limb here.

Shawnee Mission East (KS) HS LHP Joey Wentz entered the mock drafts less than a month ago and some have easily in the top 10 picks.

This all started from a local April 26th article that outlined that, at that point of the season, Wentz was 4-0 in 23 innings, while giving up zero hits and zero runs. One of those games was a 7-inning no-hitter that produced 16 strikeouts.

This is the kind of kid that Washington drafts early, but don’t be surprised it’s not the Tigers turn this year.

10.  .Chicago WS – Mississippi State RHP Dakota Hudson has been rising on most of the mock drafts lately and he is consistently projected in the 9-11 range.

The 6-5 Hudson worked long and middle relief when he first came to school but settled in as the closer through his junior year.

This season, he became the Friday night starter – 15-starts, 2.35, 9-4, 103.1-IP, 107-K

Hudson throw a 94-mph 4-seam fastball and a 92-mph 2-seamer.

11.  Seattle – There’s another great outfielder in this draft.

Chaminade College Prep (CA) centerfielder Blake Rutherford is the Michael Conforto of this year’s draft. In 2015, he hit .435, stole 22 bases, and hit four home runs.

Rutherford was injured the first two games of this season but has since returned to the lineup and is hitting in the .500+ range.

Potential big bat.

 12.  Boston – Everybody needs a great catcher, especially one that can play first base as well.

No one has ever questioned if Miami’s Zack Collins would be the first catcher drafted this year, but there was some doubt if he would make the first round. Not anymore.

So far this season Collins has hit .370 with 12 home runs and 52 runs batted in That comes in as a .642 slugging percentage.

If I’m wrong here, it might be that I’m being too conservative and have not projected him as a top 10 pick.

13.  Tampa Bay – My ‘stretch’ number two is Cal’s RHP Cal Quatrill.

Quatrill would have easily been one of the top five draft picks this season, maybe even on top of the list, if he didn’t become a victim of Tommy John Surgery.

He had only three starts as a sophomore (2-0, 1,95).

92-95 fastball – not every team would spend their first pick on someone that hasn’t thrown a ball this season, but I believe his projected talent is worth it.

14.  Cleveland – while we’re talking about stretches, Oklahoma’s 6-7 RHP Alec Hansen started out this mock season ranked about Riley Pint as the top righty in the draft. He quickly had one disappointing start after another and was eventually dropped from the rotation.

Hansen has returned to the rotation and has rebounded some ath this point of the season, but his overall stat line is 14-G, 10-starts, 3-5, 5.40.
Fastball touches 100 and a ++ changeup and curve.

15.  Minnesota – speed is everything when it comes to projecting a high school pitching prospect and Sheldon HS (CA) RHP Matt Manning has enough for two pitchers.

His repertoire includes a 98-mph 4-seam fastball, a 96-mph 2-seam fastball, and a 90-mph sinker.

He’s been a relief pitcher at Sheldon, but I expect any major league team to convert this guy to a starter.

16.  Los Angeles Angels – Shenendehowa HS (NY) RHP Ian Anderson has had his own injury problems this season, but it shouldn’t prevent him from coming is at around this point in the first round.

Anderson went 8-0, 1.40 as a sophomore and 6-1, 0.66 as a junior. He throws a fastball, cutter fastball, slurve-ball, slider, curve, and changeup.


17.  Houston – My next stretch is Boston College RHP Justin Dunn.

Dunn throws a 95-mph 4-seam fastball, a 92-mph 2-seam fastball, and a major league ready ¾ curve.

2016 – 16-games, 6-starts, 3-1, 1.35, 53.1-IP, 55-K

18.  New York Yankees – the Yanks always choose the ‘best player available’ when it’s time to pick and the tie-breaker in early rounds are always a power college arm.

Virginia’s Connor Jones comes right out of the Matt Harvey mold.

Jones throws a 95-mph 4-seam fastball, a 92-mph 2-seam fastball, a 90 slider, a 76 curve, and a 75 changeup.

2016 – 14-starts, 11-1, 2.29.

19.   New York Mets – the Mets could go a lot of ways here, but, based on their needs and who’s left out there, it’s going to be hard to pass on Plum HS (PA) OF-1B Alex Kirloff.

Kirloff is a 6-2 power bat with a rifle arm that makes him a perfect long term outfielder. His 6.59 60-yard dash shows his potential as a leadoff hitter and his .500 batting average in 2015 shows he can hit consistently as well.


If they break from picking the best player available and instead try and fill a pressing need at third base, look for Wake Forest third baseman/first 
baseman Will Craig, who many experts think is the best hitter in the draft. Craig could literally start this season in St. Lucie, start next season in Binghamton, and finish next year as a September call-up.


Reese Kaplan said...

We need to draft the Jethro Tull namesake.

Tom Brennan said...

Aqualung aside, Reese, I like either of the two Mack cited for 19, Craig or Kirloff. I wonder if the Mets feelDavid Thompson will develop enough for 3rd base.

Hobie said...

Wow, if 1-18 went as illustrated, there's a lot of thinking to take place in the war room.

IF's Karloff, Craig, Lowe & Nolan Jones; LHP Braxton Garrett... wouldn't complain.
Wish my crystal ball wasn't so foggy.

Hope you decide to put in your 2 krona on Wed Morn.

Anonymous said...

Still going with Will Craig and Robert Tyler for the 1st round picks

Anonymous said...

I was hopin this site would stay active. I would go college bat first

Tom Brennan said...

I agree. A REAL college bat. Nimmo, Cecchini, Smith underwhelming out of HS. Conforto just fine out of college. Wright finished this year, we need help soon.

eraff said...

Nimmo: 23 .317/877 as a AAA CF
Cheech: 22 .326/803 as a AAA SS

These are Bad Drafts?...... do you expect all of them to be Mike Trout?.... Or Bryce Harper?...or Conforto?

Good Gravy!!!!!!!

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