Reese Kaplan -- Show Me The Money


As Mets fans well know, contract status i.e. "how much do we have to pay him?" dictates many roster decisions.  Let's take a look at the current 40 man roster and see what is on tap for 2017:

Player Name 2017 Estimate Notes
Alejandro De Aza
n/a Gone as a free agent
Jerry Blevins
$5,000,000 Resigned as a free agent
Jay Bruce
Asdrubal Cabrera
Eric Campbell
n/a AAA or preferably gone
Gavin Cecchini
n/a Trade bait
Yoenis Cespedes
Bartolo Colon
$8,000,000 Re-signed as FA
Michael Conforto
Travis d'Arnaud
$1,700,000 Arbitration eligible
Jacob deGrom
$4,500,000 Arbitration eligible
Lucas Duda
$7,000,000 Arbitration eligible
Josh Edgin
$800,000 Arbitration eligible
Jeurys Familia
$8,800,000 Arbitration eligible
Wilmer Flores
$1,900,000 Arbitration eligible
Erik Goeddel
Curtis Granderson
Robert Gsellman
Matt Harvey
$5,200,000 Arbitration eligible
Jim Henderson
Sean Gilmartin
Kelly Johnson
$2,500,000 Resigned as a FA
Ty Kelly
Juan Lagares
James Loney
n/a Gone as a FA
Seth Lugo
Steven Matz
Rafael Montero
n/a Not in their plans
Jonathon Niese
$500,000 Buyout his option
Brandon Nimmo
Kevin Plawecki
Addison Reed
$10,000,000 Arbitration eligible
Jose Reyes
Matt Reynolds
n/a AAA
Rene Rivera
$2,200,000 Arbitration eligible
T.J. Rivera
Hansel Robles
Justin Ruggiano
$1,500,000 Arbitration eligible
Fernando Salas
$3,200,000 Resigned as a free agent
Josh Smoker
Noah Syndergaard
Logan Verrett
n/a AAA or preferably gone
Neil Walker
n/a Gone as a FA w/o QO
Zack Wheeler
David Wright
Gabriel Ynoa
n/a AAA

Obviously the Mets are not going to jump from a $135 million opening day payroll in 2016 to a $161 million opening day payroll in 2017, so what needs to change?

As good as he's been, I have to believe Addison Reed is going the way of Tyler Clippard -- too rich for their blood as a setup guy.  There's a $10 million savings right there.  Fernando Salas may be resigned at 25% of that amount and given the 8th inning role.  I don't necessarily agree with it, but I suspect it could happen.

The Yoenis Cespedes/David Wright/Curtis Granderson/Jay Bruce salaries are the other areas where there is some flexibility.  If they re-sign Cespedes to a new deal at his 2016 salary (which is higher than what he's slated to get in 2017 and 2018 if he remained), assume it would be something along the lines of 4 years at $27.5 per year.  If he doesn't sign, then there's the other chunk of salary needing to come off the payroll.

However, if he does sign that type of extension, Bruce may be a sign/trade type of deal.  Granderson on his final year of his deal would similarly be a trade target.  Wright is, of course, the wildcard, with his health the great known.  
I'd love to see them take a run at the Chicago Cubs' Willson Contreras but with veteran Miguel Montero having had a poor 2016 and veteran David Ross at the end of his career, it's highly unlikely the Mets could entice Chicago to move a solid bat like that unless they really do intend to make Kyle Schwarber a catcher again.  

The Baltimore Orioles have a sweet swinging catching prospect by the name of Chance Sisco, but he's not major-league ready to take over from d'Arnaud.  

Many have advocated they acquire the Orioles' Matt Weiters, but he's not exactly Yadier Molina behind the plate and last year earned $15.8 million.  Even with reduced production he's going to be looking at an 8 figure AAV in a free agent contract, so I don't see him as a solution. 

Similarly, Wilson Ramos has problems staying on the field and will likely be looking to cash in on his free agency.  He currently earns $5.35 million and in a season in which he slashed 22/80/.308, he's going to be in very high demand.  At minimum I think he'll double his salary and get it over 4-5 years.  

The first shoe to drop, of course, is the Mets' exclusive negotiating period now with Yoenis Cespedes.  The other one falls 3 days after the World Series.  Should he opt out (as most predict he will), I assume he's gone because if he wanted to be here he could have negotiated that deal already.  


Robb said...

Its not my money, but I see no reason why the Mets shouldnt be in the 150-175 mm payroll area. Thats where playoff teams primarily live, or big market perennial playoff teams are supposed to. Both attendance and TV ratings that continued to grow y/y should support that fact. Do i see them hitting 200mm, no.

Can we also, stop pretending that they are trading granderson. lets not forget that the reasons people want to trade him are the reasons no one will trade for him. Regardless, besides being in the last year of his contract and mid thirties, he is the Kind of high quality team guy and community leader that every team wants. and they do love him marketing wise.

but lets just say they do sign ces, and bruce and grand, its only a 1 year expensive outfield. ces, legares, nimmo and conforto will be there in 2018.

Thomas Brennan said...

If the Mets are reasonably sure that the elite starters will return healthy (a gamble, but they'd likely know best) then keep Addison Reed and don't penny pinch. Familia goes down, who closes? Addison Reed. And we'd want the 8th and 9th super solid - those 2 guys were the predominant reason they made the playoff wild card.

Sign Cespedes.

Campbell and Verrett can go play in Japan.

Absolutely agree on the one year cost of Bruce and Granny, then those 2 drop off the radar screen. Spend $$ in 2017, don't be bashful.

Consider trading Duda and keeping Loney if you execs feel Smith could be ready by July...that would save $$ for the other essentials.

Reese Kaplan said...

I would be willing to roll the dice on Wilmer Flores as the every day first baseman if you trade Duda. How will he ever improve against right handed pitching until he plays against it? He has shown 25 HR type of power (if he played as a full timer). I'm not sold Duda, Wright or Walker will be able to play full time due to the nature of back injuries. That, of course, minimizes the value of Duda in trade.

eraff said...

They have 3 similar Bats in Grandy-Duda-Bruce....That's AT LEAST one too many from that Grouping. Of the 3, I'd like to see Grandy back. He had some versatility to play some CF, and he is the best rounded baseball player of the 3.

I don;t know that the $160 million is a stopper at this point...I'd prefer they address needs/not needed and give themselves some room to grow and add to the roster as needed in-season. I'm a big believer in not being "too settled" in February---let the team define itself a bit and anticipate finishing Touches by July.

Mack's Mets © 2012