Analysis: The Mets could be historically good

By Jeremy Mand

Thirty-six games into the 2021 major league baseball season, the Mets are 20-16 and in first place, 4 games up on the Phillies’ in the loss column, in what many prognosticators expected to be the most competitive division in MLB. I think if you polled most Mets’ fans, especially after the follies’ of the past several years, they would have signed up for that. 

But their record certainly does not tell the whole story, as I’m sure most fans can recognize. The Mets have achieved this relatively modest success despite being be-set by an unprecedented series of injuries the likes of which I have never seen in my 30 years of following the team (I started following when I was 6) and with virtually no offensive production from core players like Francisco Lindor (.578 OPS), James McCann (.519 OPS), Dom Smith (.647 OPS); as well as middling performances from Jeff McNeil (.710 OPS) and Michael Conforto (.692 OPS) before their injuries landed them on the DL.

The Mets’ have survived to this point, not because of the offensive potency that many expected, but because of historic level pitching, and a surprisingly improved defense, supported by a complete overhaul of their analytics department which has supported their run prevention efforts. The Mets pitching has been historic, they are currently 3^rd in baseball in ERA, 2^nd in Wins Above Replacement (despite playing 5 fewer games than the Yankees, who lead), and 1^st in xFIP(a stat that measures the expected runs allowed independent of defense). Their defense, mostly bolstered by an extensive use of the shift (2^nd in shift %) is 5^th in baseball in defensive runs saved (DSR).  This has led, and I don’t say this lightly, a historic level of run prevention. 

The Mets pitching staff, as measured by WAR, if they keep their current pace will have statistically the single best pitching staff in the last two decades. (per Fangraphs)

                        

                                                    *projected over 162 game season

And by the way, of all 10 teams ranked above, only the 2002 Dodgers did not make the playoffs. 

The Mets starting pitching, as many expected, has been a strength, measuring 4^th in baseball in ERA, and 6^th in baseball in WAR. This is in spite of handing 6 starts to Joey Lucchesi and his 9.19 ERA. The starting pitching should be even better with the returns of Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Carrasco, and ace Jacob deGrom just around the corner. 

But it has been the deep, explosive, and deadly effective bullpen that has kept this team in contention. Before the season I wrote that the Mets pen had a chance to be very good due to the wide and diverse array of explosive arms, if they kept their walks down, and it seems that this has held true. The pen has the 8^th lowest walk rate (3.22) compared to having the 2^nd worst in 2020 (5.06), as well as the 8^th highest K rate (10.03 per 9 innings). The emergence of pitchers such as Miguel Castro, Sean Reid-Foley, Drew Smith, Tommy Hunter, the acquisitions of Trevor May and Aaron Loup, and the re-emergence of Jeurys Familia has been remarkable, and the bullpen too will be getting a key reinforcement with Seth Lugo expected to return in just a few weeks. 

As for the Mets offense, despite having a deep array of power hitters, they have the 2^nd worst home run/fly ball rate in MLB, and the 11^th highest ground ball rate – which is probably why Chili Davis lost his job. The offense has too many good players in their prime to continue at their current rate of futility. It is highly unlikely that an elite player like Lindor, or consistently good players like McNeil, Conforto,  and Smith will not return to close to their mean performance; and you can add in returns of Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis; and the return of those players will allow us to return effective bench players like Jonathan Villar and Kevin Pillar to the roles they were meant for. 

The bottom line is, it is completely logical to expect our pitching to remain largely elite, not because pitchers like Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker need to continue to pitch to the levels they have, which maybe we can’t expect, but because we are getting three all-stars in the rotation back, as well as an all-star caliber reliever in Lugo.  But what we can and should expect is the return to form of our lineup, and when that happens, we could have a beautiful team. Not to mention it is not unlikely that Sandy Alderson will make a blockbuster to bolster us down the stretch (Kris Bryant anyone?). 

If the Mets can make it through the next few weeks, and if they can return healthy, the Mets’ can fully expect to make a deep run into October.