5/3/21

Tom Brennan - IS IT TIME TO STOP DOING LONG TERM PLAYER DEALS?


We all get old.  Players get old quicker.

What a wild, wild win in Philly last night.

As soon as Hoskins hit his homer in the 9th, I shut the game off...only to find out it wasn’t a homer after all.

Seventeen sorely needed hits...with the big free agents Lindor and McCann somehow, however, combining for just one of those hits in 10 ABs. So, on to my article:

I recently did an article comparing Francisco Lindor, the man just extended for 10 years through the year 2032, and who through Mets' game number 21 was, on May 1, hitting an increasingly concerning .182 with just one home run (MAY DAY! MAY DAY!) to one Zoilo Versalles.  

Zoilo was a fine star in the mid-1960s who garnered an AL MVP at 25, something no Mets offensive player has ever done, and then precipitously declined in subsequent seasons.

No long, multi-year contracts back then - apparently, Versalles made all of $42,000 that year. Imagine that.

Virtually no downside financial risk back then.  

There sure is nowadays, though.

When Mack chided me a bit the other day about comparing Lindor to a totally obscure 1960s MVP like Zoilo (one more MVP than Lindor, by the way), I thought of another former Clevelander, Carlos Baerga, who had terrific stats (as did Lindor) in his early to mid 20s, and then quickly slid into mediocrity for the rest of his career - including a so-so .267/.302/.373 slash line as a Met at ages 27-29.

So, let’s look at the wisdom of ultra-long contracts and age related hitter decline, by considering some specific examples.

The Mets Friday night were playing the Phillies, for whom Andrew McCutcheon was hitting .169.  

He had won an MVP, and was 3rd and 5th in MVP voting in two other years.  All three of those years were in his mid 20's.  

Thereafter, he has largely been a somewhat above average player, at best.   No All Star games, no All Star teams, since he last excelled in 2015 at age 28. Terrible in 2021 so far.

Considering those 3 examples, I'm sure there are quite a few other examples of similar performance, so one has to wonder: short of a Mike Trout type, why extend any hitter (like James McCann) to a contract spanning several years?  

More likely than not, it seems, you may find yourself to be very disappointed.

And why not...here are some other examples of underperformers to chew on.

Think David Wright extension...Yoenis Cespedes extension.  Hugely costly, with little to show for it.  Jason Bay, anyone?

Elsewhere, Ken Griffey Jr. was an absolute beast through age 30. 

But over the next 10 years, he hit only 210 of his 630 career home runs.  Past performance did not provide a reasonable projection of future superstar performance, not at all.

Albert Pujols hit like Lou Gehrig through age 30. Well over .300 with enormous power and RBI production every single year for 10 years.

Thereafter, he still had some very productive years, but his roughly .330 average of his first 10 seasons turned into about a .260 or lower average for the next 10+ seasons.  Big drop in average, power, and RBIs.  That huge Pujols extension was not terrible, but it was expensive, production-wise.

Troy Tulowitzki?  Boy was he great through age 26. Why not give him a 10 year extension? He was still very good the next 4 years - except for one little thing - he averaged just 100 games a year.  His last 2 years - age 31 and 32 - he was in steep decline.  Age 33?  He was out of baseball.

And the poster boy of the horrors of a long term contract...Chris Davis of the Orioles. Davis hit 47 homers - and fanned over 200 times - in 2015. Ignoring the strikeout warning sign, they extended him for 7 years, $161 million. At the same moment, they tied a millstone around the neck of their franchise.

Davis did hit 38 homers in 2016, but his average slipped towards .200. In 2017-2020, years 2 thru 5 out of 7, he hit about .180, and was essentially an enormous liability. He has not played this year and I find it hard to imagine he ever will again, but he is owed northward of $40 million for 2021-22.

Meanwhile, the Orioles signed Matt Harvey this year. How much? One year, $1 million. He is a useful 3-1 for them so far.

Thinking about it all, I would make a strong suggestion: 

No more extensions for offensive Mets players - trade them before they decline.  Do like the Tampa Rays.  

That means Alonso...Smith...Conforto...McNeil...Nimmo.

Why?  It's a young man's game.  Age 28 an up gets awfully dicey for a lot of players.

Maybe a 2 or 3 year extension. If they don’t bite, it’s time to take flight.

IN OTHER WORDS...TRADE BEFORE FADE.

BECAUSE FADING IS PART OF BASEBALL.

JAY BRUCE JUST FOUND THAT OUT.

OTHERS GOING FORWARD WILL, TOO.

Jay hit .223 as a Met in 2018 at the age of 31. Traded, he hit .216 at age 32. In 2020 and 2021, at ages 33 and (just turning) 34, Jay hit just .162 in 141 at bats. Which Mets player reminds me most of Jay, you might ask, who was quite a hitter in his 20s?  Michael Conforto. Let the Extender Beware.

At “just turning 34”, by the way, the age at which Jay Bruce was hanging the spikes up, Lindor will have 4 full seasons left.

Jose Reyes, who could easily be comped against Lindor, won the batting title at age 28. The Mets chose not to extend him. He was decent but not as good over the next 4 seasons, then mediocre the next 2, then at age 35, he hit .189 in 251 plate appearances.  He...just...lost...it.

At the same age, Lindor will still have 3 more seasons.

Guys keep popping into my head. Just one more here, promise.

Former Met and Card, Vince Coleman, in his first 4 years, ages 23-26, remarkably stole over 400 bases. Skipping ahead, at ages 29-33, he stole less, was still effective, but averaged just 90 games, so he was far from the Coleman of his first 4 seasons in that regard.

At ages 34-35, he deteriorated and had just 14 hits in 98 at bats, and was done. 

At the same age as Coleman’s retirement age, Lindor will have 3 full, expensive years left.

I’ll stop there. You get the picture.   Thoughts? 

My brother Steve was asked. He reminded me of Eric Campbell and Danny Muno, and of this team’s long history of developing few in-house offensive forces, and said KEEP SPENDING, GET SOME WRONG, GET SOME RIGHT. so, there you go...the flip side.


5 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Morning Tom

I can't answer your question untl 2021 is over and we get to see the finished product.

Wil tell you this... you wiil never sign a top FA without a longer.

Ladt night we got a lot of hits... and needed every one of them.

By thw way... Mack don't chide. :)

Tom Brennan said...

Eleven years historically seems too long by half on Lindor. Hopefully less.

Had to put the "chide" in there, Mack, just to see if you were reading this - you passed with flying colors!

bill metsiac said...

I'm opposed to long-term deals, especially for players who have never shown the ability to handle the pressure of playing in NY.

That said, as Mack pointed out, you can't sign top FAs without long deals, and the Mets have long been criticized by fans and media for failing to "land the big ones", so it's one of those rock/hard place situations.

Let's suppose that for the next 4 years Lindor (after regaining his form) leads us to WS titles or near-misses, then faded like the players you mentioned. Some would say that the contract was a bust, others would say that $341mil was worth it for the 4 years of greatness.

No way would there be a solid majority opinion on either side.

Tom Brennan said...

Bill, excellent points.

I just wonder how many contracts of say 7 years or more could be considered good. Scherzer is clearly one, and so far Trout is. I am not going to compile the list or do an in depth comparison, although every owner should.

Tom Brennan said...

At least it won't be long before there are lots of fans in the stands - Cuomo announced today:


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COVID-19
Cuomo: Most NY, NJ Capacity Restrictions to End Starting May 19; Social Distancing (Mostly) Stays
New York is closing in on administering at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine to half of the state's residents, while its positivity and hospitalization rates have fallen to Thanksgiving lows and continue to drop
By Jennifer Millman • Published May 3, 2021 • Updated 37 seconds ago

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What to Know
Gov. Andrew Cuomo says New York state, including the city, can fully reopen at some point within the next two months if vaccinations stay on track, meaning, "literally, everything back to normal"
He announced a joint plan with New Jersey to lift almost all capacity restrictions there and in New York on May 19; social distancing will remain in place in the Empire State with certain exceptions
Meanwhile, bar seating returns to NYC Monday for the first time in 14 months while indoor dining and personal care biz capacity go to 75% in days; round-the-clock subway service will return on May 17
Most pandemic-related capacity restrictions in New York and New Jersey will be lifted beginning May 19, Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Monday. The plan employs the same regionally coordinated spirit the two neighboring governors deployed when they first shut down their states more than 13 months ago.

Some businesses may opt to keep capacity restrictions in place, Cuomo noted, but from the statewide perspective, they will be essentially gone in barely more than two weeks. That means no executive-ordered limits to how many people can be in retail and food services establishments, gyms, amusement and family entertainment businesses, hair salons, barbershops, offices and more at one time.

The only capacity limit that will remain in place across the tri-state area as of May 19 is one for large outdoor stadiums. Capacity for those will go to 33% in New York on that day, while Cuomo said New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are working to coordinate joint COVID protocol for those big arena spaces going forward.

MY GUESS IS 50% ON MEMORIAL DAY, 75% ON JUNE 15, 100% JULY 1.