Tom Brennan - The Mets' PRODUCTIVE Top 30 Prospects List

I dunno about you - lots of things drive me cotton-picking' nuts!

Like, it always drives me a little nuts when I see Mets Top 30 lists occupied by a) guys who will be injured for a very long time, b) guys who may have tools but also have significant flaws, and c) young dudes who haven't even played in an official minor league game yet.

I like it when performance is recognized and applauded.

Yesterday, I pointed out 4 highly deserving Mets minor leaguers who should be in the Top 30. 

Then for today, as a follow-on, I whipped up a new list... 

I call it  the Mets' Productive Top 30.

Basically, this list contains traditional Top 30 prospects who are currently playing and playing at least reasonable well, and without major flaw(s); and guys doing great who no one seems to care about as to including them in the traditional Top 30 lists until they convince the naysayers for a very long period.  

Guys like Matt Allan and Tom Szapucki are not on the list - Allan won't be back until late 2022, so he is currently unproductive, and Szapucki pitches so little, he is almost like a rumor: you have to pitch to produce.  

And Tom S was having an unproductive, bad season before his season ending nerve shift surgery.

We all know some guys who weren't in the traditional Top 30 for a good while, and eventually cracked it due to excellent minor league production - and went on to do great, at least for a while.  

Guys like Jeff McNeil, TJ Rivera, and an obscure guy named Tylor Megill.   McNeil and Rivera are career .300 + MLB hitters for their time in the bigs, and Megill...well, I just like Megill, and did even before he was in a traditional Top 30.

So here's my PRODUCTIVE TOP 30 LIST:

1) Francisco Alvarez - elite prospect, demonstrable raw power.  Can

2) Brett Baty - hitting well, climbing the ladder like a good 1st rounder should.  Bat, Baty, Bat.

3) Mark Vientos - anyone who hits 17 HRs in a span of 34 games deserves to be high, high, high up on this list.

4) Ronny Mauricio - it has not been a big year, average-wise, but the surge in power is very real and palpable (I like the word, so I used it!  I guess that makes me culpable.)

5) JT Ginn - now fully recovered from TJS, he has been quite solid (1.07 WHIP in 63 IP) and should finish 2021 strong and climb fast in 2022, like you'd expect of someone who (were it not for a draft-time existing arm injury) would have been a high 1st rounder when drafted.

6) Carlos Cortes - it's my doggone list, and anyone who has 40 XBHs in 281 ABs (that's 1 every 7 ABs, folks) and 54 RBIs, despite hitting lead off quite often, deserves to be high up on it.  

I still think if he wants to climb to Productive Prospect # 1 (and who wouldn't?  I know, sacrilegious to suggest, considering our # 1 thru # 4), he needs to stop hitting righty (.209/.253/.291) and stick to his lethal lefty side (.292/.362/.610) against both lefties and righties.

7) Khalil Lee - .254/.437/.442 in AAA - so he is getting on base a-plenty.  80 Ks in 70 games is still a concern, though.  But high walks can lead to higher Ks, due to a willingness to try to get on base via BB.  I frankly don't get how a guy can go from 53 of 65 in steals in 2019 to 5 of 13 in 2021.  Hopefully, it is just that he knows how to steal, but wants to avoid injury, so he has put it mostly on pause until he gets to the bigs.  If so, I'm down with that that.

8) Jose Peroza - here's a guy 6 months younger than Baty, and who (over a full 162 games) would be averaging 34 doubles, 20 HRs, 108 RBIs, .391 OBP.  That was before his single, HR, and 3 RBIs Tuesday night.  

Mets don't have the 21 year old IF in their Top 30 - why?  They are boneheads.

9) Carlos Rincon - 23 year old who was picked up in a trade, he is in AA and has 19 HRs, 69 RBIs, and is hitting .270. A .504 slug, too.  6'3", 190, fine power.  Getting that average up, too, will help his MLB prospects greatly.

10) Alex Ramirez - The 18 1/2 year old 5 tools stud is hitting reasonably well in Low A St Lucie.  I think by the time he is 19 1/2, he will be tearing up the league he is assigned to.  And when he is 20 1/2, he might be a major leaguer.

11) Jake Mangum - talented CF has hit roughly .460 in his first 19 games in August.  Missing from Top 30 list - why? Bonehead syndrome.

12) Junior Santos - 6'7", 250 righty.  He started shakily for St Lucie this season.  But his 6.28 ERA on July 1 has plunged to 4.50.  I am sure good things lie ahead for the Megill-sized 20 year old Santos.

13) Eric Orze - a 5th rounder in 2020, he has pitched very well in relief in High A and AA (and now briefly in AAA) in 2021, with a great (56/9) K/BB ratio in 41 IP.  Should be in the Queens pen in 2022.  Clearly fast-tracking.

14) Adam Oller - his last 5 truly brilliant starts in AA and AAA (look them up, don't make me do all the work here) move him from out of the shadows of Indy Ball to front and center.

15) Cole Gordon - his last 4 truly brilliant starts in AA in his first full season (look them up, don't make me do all the work here) move him from out of the shadows of being a 2019 32nd rounder to front and center.

16) Brian Metoyer - 40th rounder who has fanned a lot for Brooklyn while giving up very few hits.  Control has gone from bad when first signed to OK now - he needs to continue to tighten that aspect.  I hear he can hit 100 MPH without the use of an automobile.

17) Drew Jackson  - yeah, I know he is 28, but his season's AAA OBP is .420, and he was hitting (for July and a few weeks into August) .370, and has stolen 17 of 20 in 69 games.  Sadly, while red hot, he went on the IL in early August.  But he has been very productive while in there.  Maybe # 17 is too high, but I wanted to give him snaps, all right, so mind your own business.  "You go, Drew."

18) Hayden Senger - catcher # 2 in this list behind the Great and Mighty Az (Alvarez, that is). Senger's fine .291/.364/.479 slash speaks for itself.

19) David Rodriguez - catcher # 3, this 25 year old backstop had a great winter ball season, started ice cold this year at 1 for 19, but in 43 games overall is .254/.351/.433. including .308 in 12 AAA games.  Should be a # 2 catcher somewhere in the majors sooner or later.

20) Nick Meyer - catcher # 4, the defense-first Meyer is hitting .267/.343/.347 this season in 56 games (mostly in AA, some AAA).  Maybe also a # 2 catcher someday.

22) Josh Walker - he honestly probably belongs higher on my list, as he had a bunch of great starts in AA and two gems in AAA, but he also got hammered a few times, which made me a little nervous.  Tall lefty.

23) Travis Blankenhorn - 7 HRs and 23 RBIs in 135 at bats in the minors and a few cups of coffee with the Mets.If he had 400 ABs, that would be 20 HRs and 70 ribbies.  

24) Tommy Wilson - missed a lot of time due to arm problems,  but in 12 AA innings, 1-0, 2.25 and 16 Ks.  I think he will produce nicely now that he is healthy.

25) Jose Butto - has had some not-so-good starts and several fine starts in 2021.  Could be a good major leaguer, or possibly not make it in the bigs.  Up to Butto which it is.  I think it will be the former.

26) Jaylen Palmer - he'd without a doubt be in the top 10 except he fans a whole heck of a whole lot.  Speedy, with real potential if he can fix the Ks.  Gotta fix the Ks.  Ks Kan Kill and Krush Kareers.

27) Luke Ritter -  just back from injury, he was hitting a ton on the road but not well for Brooklyn in Cyclone Park.  I want to see him in a normal hitter's environment in AA to see what he can do.  This # 27 spot I will have him share with David Thompson, the oft-injured 27 year old 3B. DT started really slowly this season (.196 as of May 21), but has hit much better  and with power and RBIs since - but missed a boatload of time this year.  Time is running short for him.  He needs to stay healthy and find another gear.  10 HRs, 25 RBIs in 135 ABs.  Same 400 AB exercise as I did with the younger Blankenhorn would put Thompson at 30 HRs, 75 RBIs.

Finally, there are 3 high 2021 draft picks, only 1B Schwartz who is playing currently, so I will stick them down as the last 3 in my top 30 due to lack of minor league production:

28) 1B JT Schwartz - just 6 for 26, 2 RBIs so far in Low A.

29) Dominic Hamel - still to make his pro debut.

30) Calvin Ziegler - still to make his pro debut.

If I only picked already productive minor leaguers and therefore excluded the final 3 above, then for my # 28 thru # 30 I would have:

David Thompson would be # 28; 

Brooklyn CF Antoine Duplantis would be # 29 (a sweet 58 runs in 85 games, .268); and

RHRP Jared Robinson (71 Ks in 46 innings for Binghamton) would be # 30.

Special Mention Dudes: 

Bryce Montes de Oca.  Soft tossing at 100 MPH +, but he needs to harness the control to not only hit the Top 30, but to soar up in it.  Saw John's video clip yesterday - Montes de Oca throws EXTREMELY HARD.

Also, Sammy Tavares and Allan Winans, who have done some very fine relief work in A and AA this season. Productive producers of the producing variety.  

Winans has in fact been particularly good in 2019 and 2021 in relief, reminding me of a minor league Paul Sewald…who was VERY productive in the minors some years back. Winans probably belongs in my Productive Top 30, frankly.

I did not look to the Florida Complex League, because it is rookie ball in a league that started not too long ago, but I will probably update this list after the season is over and look to see if a few of them deserve to be included.  

International?  Nope.  Perhaps a topic for another day.

As of right now, IMO, none of the Complex dudes do deserve inclusion - at least not yet.

I hope this was a productive exercise for you.  Now, do your part.  Produce some feedback here.  G'day, mates.

BUT, BEFORE I GO....

Most teams have sluggers.  The Mets have sluggards.

I hear that two weeks ago, all the METS' hitters signed up for Life Alert.  Just in time, too.  They've fallen down and can't get up.

Jose Martinez too - he was hurt on a swing at end of his rehab assignment period?  Why not? It's 2021.

Finally, Noah Syndergaard threw his rehab inning yesterday to Francisco Alvarez, the # 1 productive guy on my list above.  Glimpse of the future?