One might think that after the Mets spent big money on free
agent Marte that he is a lock for CF, pushing Nimmo to one of the corner slots
and creating a log jam for the other positions.
But rather than jumping to conclusions, let’s look at the numbers and
see how the competition shapes up.
Starling Marte has had a very successful career since he broke into the majors in 2012. For eight years he anchored center field for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and was awarded two gold gloves and an all-star berth during his tenure. His defensive abilities have placed him third among all active major league outfielders with 50 assists. At the plate, he has slashed .289/.346/.451 over a 10 year career.
In the past 2 years, he has bounced between Arizona, Miami, and Oakland but that has not affected his hitting as he accumulated 209 hits over that span for a batting average of just over .300.
During those
last two seasons, his fielding percentage was a solid .990, but the advanced
metric Defensive Runs Saved shows some decline over his peak years from
2015-2017. This might indicate some loss
of range, which would be expected for a player who will be 33 years old this
season (and hopefully celebrate a 34th birthday during a Mets
playoff game).
Brandon Nimmo has spent 6 years in the big leagues, all with the Mets. His lifetime batting line of .266/.393/.445 is good, but does not reflect improvements at the plate driven by a change in his hitting philosophy. Nimmo has always had a great batting eye, working counts and drawing many walks. Recently though, he has begun to look for a good pitch to hit earlier in counts rather than forcing high pitch counts and waiting for a mistake. Batting averages of .280 and .292 in the last two years reflect this change.
In the field, Nimmo has also
shown great improvement by working on his ability to track balls over his
head. This has allowed him to play a
little shallower in CF so he can get to more balls that are blooped over the
infield. His fielding percentage has
been consistently around .992 (his lifetime stat), but his DRS improved
significantly in 2021 because he was getting to more balls.
Mark Canha was signed to a three year deal to supplement the
Mets outfield. He is touted as a
versatile outfielder who can play all three positions plus first base. His lifetime slash line is an unspectacular
.244/.344/.431 and individual year stats have declined since his solid 2019
season in Oakland. Canha has a fielding
percentage of .986 in the outfield over 488 games in his 7 year MLB career. His DRS of -11 in 2021 put him among the
bottom 5 outfielders in baseball.
Jeff McNeil has spent 5 years in the big leagues with the Mets, and has been a valuable hitter in the lineup, averaging just under .300 in more than 1300 at-bats. He had a down year in 2021 after consistent .300+ years prior, so one would project a much better 2022. In the field he has spent more time in the infield (59% of innings played) than the outfield (41%) but he did not mesh well with Francisco Lindor last year so Buck Showalter will likely see him as an outfielder to start 2022.
In the outfield, McNeil has proven to be capable with a lifetime
fielding percentage of .971 and a positive DRS rating in each of his last 3
seasons.
J.D. Davis has also spent 5 years in the majors, with the
last three in a Mets uniform. Although
he has played quite a bit of third base with the Astros and the Mets, J.D. has
not shown enough leather at 3B so he projects as a left fielder where he has
compiled a .974 fielding percentage over 92 games there. J.D. makes this team with his bat, where he
has slashed .288/.373/.472 with the Mets.
Dominic Smith will vie for an outfield slot as well as competing
at DH and first base. He is the best
defensive first baseman on this team, but with Pete Alonso locked in as the
starter Dom has shown flexibility in playing left field. He has fielded at a .979 clip in left but has
below average range and ability to go back on a ball over his head. Mets fans are hoping for an offensive
production year like Dom had in 2020 where he put up a .316/.377/.616 line. Career offensive numbers are much lower, as
he has struggled to achieve consistency.
There are several hopefuls from the minors that will likely get spring training invitations including Kahlil Lee, Mark Vientos, Jake Magnum, Mark Vientos, Carlos Rincon, Daniel Palka, Carlos Cortes, Nick Plummer, and Mark Payton. It is also worth noting that the Majors part of the Rule 5 draft has not been held because there is no Collective Bargaining Agreement in place.
It is conceivable that the Mets could pick an outfielder as a rule 5
pick and then be compelled to give him a roster shot. Of those mentioned, Palka, Payton, and Lee
are the only ones with time in the majors so far and their success has been
very limited so none project to be in the starting lineup to open the 2022
season.
- I see Buck Showalter holding a straight-up, non-biased competition for center field. Marte is the gold glover, Nimmo is the incumbent, and Canha has played there before.
- I see Starling Marte winning the CF job in spring training. Despite Nimmo’s improved defensive play, Marte still has the greatest instincts in center and can take away balls at the fence. Nimmo will get some starts there and this will preserve Marte’s legs for the late season pitch.
- Nimmo gets a corner OF position because the Mets need him in the lineup almost every day. He is a table-setter with his high OBP and strong BB/K ratio. I would love to see him add some stolen bases to his repertoire but that hasn’t been a feature of his game yet.
- The third OF slot becomes a battle between the four remaining players considering both defensive and offensive contributions. All things considered, I want McNeil’s bat in the lineup. He is a capable fielder and actually has superior Defensive Runs Saved metrics. Mark Canha shows best in standard fielding metrics with a .986 fielding percentage so he should see a lot of outfield time, and I’m sure that Showalter will be using a rotation to keep players fresh.
- Here’s a table that looks at some meaningful statistics on the four players competing for that third OF slot. The defensive stats consider only outfield play, so although each has seen some innings in the infield those have been eliminated. Both DRS and WAR are summed for the last three years since those advanced metrics are calculated yearly and it is not fair to use career totals when players have varying years of playing time.
What I find interesting about the table is that defensively, J.D. Davis has 5 kills in just 59 Opportunities to Advance (OtA), which points to his powerful arm and accuracy. In contrast, Mark Canha has played 3923 steady innings (best fielding %) in the outfield, yet only has a 1% kill rate with 3 kills in 357 OtA.
If you are playing an aggressive base-running team, you may want Davis to gun ‘em down. But if you are in the late innings of a close contest, you may choose to minimize the error rate with Canha.
It will be a very interesting spring training this year. Statistics only look in the rear view mirror, so what Buck and his coaching staff see on the field will be the ultimate factor in lineup decisions. Until then, how do you see it playing out?
10 comments:
Paul, nice analysis, but they spent a lot on Canha, which means they plan to play him - his batting average is soft, but he is excellent at getting on base and scoring.
What a guy can do, and what he will cost, is a big factor.
If Cano is washed up, he can go. Then with those 6, there will be enough room in the outfield, infield and DH to make it work.
If they trade for Juan Soto....then the bodies will be flying out of here. They may want McNeil and 2 or even 3 top prospects. I would not give them Alvarez.
I still think Dom or JD might go - both may thrive elsewhere. Conforto may thrive away from Citi, too.
Tom, if we can get Soto for McNeil and friends then it would be a win. Otherwise, I don't see McNeil at 2B given the incompatibilities with Lindor last year. You have to play a guy that can hit .300 sitting on the bench with a lifetime .240 hitter in the field.
I agree with you that Dom, JD, and Conforto all may thrive elsewhere, so if they can provide value in return, it is good for everyone.
Paul, that is an article to do - take each key Mets player that has come and gone from the Mets. In a table.
See how many did better before (if they were a MLB player before Mets) and after (if they continued in the majors after being a Met).
So....Paul Sewald - much better post-Mets.
Daniel Murphy - ditto.
Tony Fernandez - very good before Mets, stunk as a Met, very good after being a Met.
Etc.
No stats - just better or worse - I think it would tell quite a tale.
Ignore the early 1960s. Could be the last 25 years.
Good stuff Paul. My crystal ball tells me that something has to happen.
I'll turn your 6 for 3 into a 7 for 7, or the number of spots on the roster that might have a competition.
I am counting McCann, Alonso, Lindor, Marte, and Nimmo as starting job locks. I am going to pencil in Marte and Nimmo in LF and CF in some way.
So we need to fill second base, third base, right field, and four bench spots. (I am leaving on bench spot free for the back-up catcher - Nido at this point).
The players on deck for those spots, without considering the guys from Syracuse, are Escobar, Cano, Smith, Canha, McNeil, Guillorme, and Davis.
So the numbers all fit, but there are a few round hole, square peg situations. Is Escobar a starting third baseman? Is McNeil a second baseman? Does Cano have anything left for any position?
The designated hitter slot will help the logjam a little, but I think there will be either some big roster adjustments via trades or a lot of mix and match, platoon, and players getting regular rest situations as the year starts out.
My best guess is that either McNeil or Canha will be traded before April 1.
My other best guess is that Cano will not be on the roster on opening day.
If there are no trades, the most regular outfield should be Nimmo, Marte, and McNeil.
I do agree with Tom above that Canha will not be a regular bench player.
The 6 for 3 is a good discussion for the outfield, but it's the infield that is the bigger problem in my mind.
Good breakdown R69er.
We all need to remember, though - injuries do happen.
If I am correct, every single Met in 2021 that you list above spent some time on the IL,,,and when you're on the IL, you can't play in the NL.
Everyone won't suddenly turn into Gehrig II.
Khalil Lee and Mark Vientos are also knocking on the door.
Camo will be the first
Injury risk is why I think that Dom is the least likely of them to be traded..and not the risk of injury to him
I'm not saying what they can or can't do, but Canha and Cano are a pretty big salary hit this year to just can them. Can we?
Well done, sir
Paul, that was uncanny LOL
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