Reese Kaplan -- So the Mets Want Another Outfielder?

So the big debate that opened up among Mets fans is the headline this week that leaked that the team is looking to add another outfield bat to the mix.  That's an interesting and somewhat unexpected development because as it is right now they have Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha, Dom Smith, J.D. Davis and Jeff McNeil all capable of playing the outfield, as well as some occasional types like Eduardo Escobar, Khalil Lee and others.  It would seem that bringing in more outfield help suggests that some of the present crew will be wearing a different uniform come opening day.  

The first name to arise in any of these conversations is Kris Bryant.  People tend to oversell or under appreciate the man's abilities.  He has transformed from a strict third baseman to a versatile player available to play the outfield as well as first base and even logged two games at shortstop.  His Rookie of the Year award in 2015, his MVP in 2016 and fine third season in 2017 were both a long time ago.  Back then he was hitting from 26 to 39 home runs and produced between 73 and 102 RBIs.

Since then Bryant has been a solid player who serves his team(s) well, but he's going to ask to be treated like an MVP contender year in and year out.  That type of perception of his purported talent is going to command north of $24 million per year for several years.  Let's say for the sake of argument to make nice round numbers a four-year contract for $100 million.  

What will you get for that?  Well, the 2018-2021 version of Bryant was good for 13, 31, 4 and 25 home runs.  Those numbers are a bit reduced from earlier in his career, but what's a bit more concerning is that his RBI high over that four year period is just 77.  Granted, his versatility defensively is worth some buckaroos, too, but is he really that caliber of player?  As a comparison, last year's few months of Javy Baez was worth about that amount to the Detroit Tigers and he's averaging much higher production (including stolen bases and Gold Glove defense).  

The other name that rose this week was homegrown Michael Conforto.  He was earning $12.5 million in 2021 for his worst season ever.  He's shown he can produce.  In his best year of 2019 he racked up a 3.9 WAR based upon 33 homers and 92 RBIs while hitting a modest .257.  For his career he's only a .255 hitter, though the power appears real with consecutive home run totals of 27, 28 and 33.  Going into his free agent year coming off lackluster numbers (.232/14/55) he's not likely going to have a huge volume of buyers looking to wave a long term contract worth more than $20 million per year.  In Conforto the Mets know what they'd be getting but probably are not looking to ink him to a long term contract.  I'd go perhaps as high as $16 million for a one year "make good" kind of contract.  That's less than what Starling Marte will earn in 2022.  I'm pretty lukewarm about Conforto for more than a one-year fill-in type of deal.  

The third option we never hear about is the free agent Seiya Suzuki.  I'm not going to hammer this topic again, but an average season for him includes his lifetime .315 NPB (Japanese league) average along with cleanup hitter power and as many as 25 stolen bases in a season.  He is just 26 years old and the media is reporting he might sign on in the $12-$14 million per season range.  Personally, I can't help thinking $10 million per year less than Bryant for a younger guy with more speed and better defense is money well spent, but thus far it's the west coast teams who have been rumored to be courting Suzuki prior to baseball's black hole preventing contracts from being signed.  

Surely there are other good options out there, but the first two are getting a lot of play due to their familiarity and their career having already been played in the American major leagues.  A lot of folks have played here and done well, but we've also seen players on the decline after better points earlier in their stat sheets.  Given the full house of outfielders already, I'd certainly roll the dice on the youngest and most athletic of the choices for the least money.