And the Mets' # 1 prospect is....KUMAR ROCKER!
(Oh, sorry, he didn't sign).
And the Mets' # 1 prospect is....PETE CROW ARMSTRONG!
(Oh, sorry, they traded him).
No more puns. Back to reality.
We have, many say, questionable depth in the minors in Metsville, but man, we do have some great top prospects.
In many a season, I'd long for the Mets to have 7 top prospects with the quality of these guys:
 |
| Francisco Alvarez - 2021 Bowman Chrome |
1) Francisco Alvarez, C
2) Brett Baty, 3B
3) Mark Vientos, 3B/OF
4) Ronny Mauricio, SS
5) JT Ginn, RHP
6) Alex Ramirez, OF
7) Matt Allan, RHP
Without trades, all should be high impact major leaguers by as early as 2023 and as late as 2025, but I am betting all 7 are in the big leagues in 2024. Honestly, if you follow Macks Mets at all, oodles have been written about each of the above players. So let me be highly succinct:
Francisco is a flat-out beast, and I am banking on him becoming the Juan Soto of MLB catchers...how's that for faint praise? Brett is quickly grinding ever higher - perhaps a lefty-hitting version of David Wright? Mark Vientos hit homers at a Roger Maris 1961 pace over his last 200 at bats of 2021. I dunno, I’m highly impressed with that. Mauricio looks like a young Strawberry, and may just end up hitting like him.
JT Ginn is a ground ball-inducing power pitcher, who I expect big things from. Alex Ramirez has great tools and may surge up everyone's lists as he plays 2022 at age 19. And Matt Allan will be well on his way towards getting back on the mound after his 2021 TJS, and is very highly regarded.
Moving on down the list...
8) Khalil Lee, OF, had a very rough debut with the Mets in early 2021, but an amazing minor league season with an OBP over .450, with speed and athleticism. Ks are an issue.
9) Adam Oller, RHP - Mets' minors pitcher of the year. Expect him on a mound near you in '22. I wanna Holler for Oller.
10) Nick Plummer, OF - former first rounder really started to get it together in 2021. Lots of similarities to Khalil Lee.
11) Carlos Rincon, OF - big bopper in AA in 2021. Should be ready to blast them in AAA in 2022.
12) Calvin Ziegler, RHP - first pitcher taken after the aborted Kumar Moon Mission. Talent should be oozing in 2022. The 18 year old was the 46th overall pick and was # 123 in the MLB Pipeline rankings. Throws hard, naturally. I'd love to see him start out in low A next year.
Dominic Hamel
13) Dominic Hamel, RHP - his 2021 pro debut was short, but very sweet. He threw 3 perfect innings in the rookie ball Florida Complex League (FCL), fanning 7. What's not to like?
14) Simon Juan, OF - Mets' top 2021 international signee... highly regarded, and highly paid. I am hoping he is a clone of Alex Ramirez.
As reported last month by EliteSportNY, “Juan is ranked the No. 16 international free agent in the 2022 signing period by MLB Pipeline. Juan, 17, is listed at 6-2 and 175 pounds and throws/bats right-handed.
The Mets also inked Dominican outfielder Willy Fañas for a reported $1.5MM. Fañas was not listed in MLB Pipeline’s top 50 overall prospects but received a significant bonus from the Mets, which indicates the club likes his tools; he’s a switch-hitter.”
I left Willy out of my Top 50, despite the large bonus, until he proves he should be included. I wanna be a fan of Fanas, really, I do.
15) Robert Dominguez, RHP - another international signee who is highly regarded. We'll find out if he can deliver in 2022. So far, 12 pro innings, 12 runs allowed, so I am holding off on my reservations for Cooperstown for at least a short while.
16) Carlos Cortez, 2B, OF - he had a gangbusters start to 2021; 42 XBHs in just over 300 AA at bats? Little guy, with a big XBH bat. His playing only 34 regular season games after June stifled his stats for 2021. Some say he is a sub-par 2B, and he spent a lot of time in the outfield in 2021. Ambidextrous.
I think if he drops hitting righty, his powerful, hit-filled lefty bat (.282/.368/.577) might get him to the big leagues at some point in 2022. He had a quiet fall ball campaign in the AFL, which disappointed me.
17) Eric Orze, RHRP - 5th rounder in 2020, he has a dandy splitter and had a mighty fine A - AA - AAA progression in this debut season. 12 Ks per 9 IP, too. Based on that, I see no reason he won't be in the Mets' pen in 2022. Maybe a future Seth Lugo or Roger McDowell equivalent?
18) Mike Vasil, LHP - 8th rounder...he was a FCL dazzler in his 2021 pro debut: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 10 Ks. Gotta love that. He has been getting good ink. Keep a close eye on Mike in 2022, as it is reported he boosted his velocity to 97 after the draft.
19) Jake Mangum, CF - superb hitting in AA down the stretch, while surprising many by adding some pop in 2021, all giving me real hope that he will carry that over to a decent big league career. Good speed, good D. I could see him becoming a major league sub OF in 2022 at some point. AAA bound.
20) Junior Santos, RHP - 6'8" dude, still very young - pitched passably in 2021. I have a feeling he will start to show much better results in 2022.
21) JT Schwartz, 1B - 2021 4th rounder - the lefty hitter only fanned 12 times in 25 St Lucie (Low A) Mets games, which is good, but hit just .195/.320/.296, which is not great. But, a challenging Low A assignment - no rookie ball - remember that Pete Alonso started his career one level lower. Schwartz most likely will be starting out back in St Lucie. Please add power.
22) Christian Scott, RHP - 2021 5th rounder. The 22 year old 6'4" righty started in the FCL, fanned 1 in 3 IP, and allowed 1 run. How's that for dipping the toe in - just 3 innings? Wow - I hope he hits at least double digits in innings and triple digits on the radar gun in 2022.
23) Jose Butto, RHP - great change up but lots of HRs allowed in the minors in 2021, That has to tighten up to rise up the ranks.
24) Tom Szapucki, LHP - # 1 in injuries, the latest being his elbow nerve shift surgery. Maybe it all comes together for a guy who was thought to be the next stud arm about 5 years ago.
25) Josh Walker, LHP - fine 2021, the tall lefty is not a fireballer, but he had many impressive starts in the high minors in 2021. I may have him too low here.
26) Cole Gordon, RHP - he had a blazing hot pitching stretch in AA late in 2021. Hopefully he can pick up right where he left off.
27) Hayden Senger, C - decent hitting, good defensive catcher. Few RBIs in 2021, and a soft AFL hitting performance. He improved in 2021. I'd like to see a big improvement in 2022.
28) Bryan Metoyer, RHRP - very low BAA and lots of Ks in relief. He got smacked around in the AFL but he was facing far better hitters than in the regular season. I comp him to former Met and Brave Akeel “the Real Deal” Morris.
Big, Bad Bryce
29) Bryce Montes de Oca, RHRP - he threw wild and 101 in 2021; he will soar up this list if he can throw controlled and 101 in 2022.
30) Kevin Kendall, SS - I was tempted to put SS Jaylen Palmer here, as many love his athleticism, but he fans too much for my liking, so I stuck 2021's 7th rounder at # 30 instead. His lefty bat excelled for the St Lucie Mets: 113 at bats, .327/.421/.451, 8 of 10 in steals. Some fans do feel that the Mets need a SS. Just kidding. Realistically, the Lindor Wall stands in his way.
That's my Top 30, people.
I always forget someone, please tell me who. Be nice.
Do you like my Top 30?
I asked someone who did, but I've been known to talk to myself.
Next article: Tom’s Top 31-50.
20 comments:
Great summary, Tom! I am really looking forward to seeing these guys on the field.
Thanks, Paul. I went exceptionally light on commentary for the top 7 because those are the ones everyone always talk about.
I did just see that Matt Allan had a second surgery to realign the nerve, which a few Mets have needed. He may not get in games this season at all, to be conservative. Get him 100%, no rush.
I just wonder, when Thor and Ginn got their Tommy Johns done just as the pandemic was starting, if Allan should have gotten it done then. He said he'd had a partial tear around the age of 15 or 16, and I guess it tore a bit more in spring 2021.
Given that 2020 looked like a clear washout by April for minor leaguers, I wonder if it would have been smarter to expect that the ligament would become a problem, and with a gift "off" year, just get it done preemptively? Ginn's surgery in 2020 had him back pitching in mid-2021. Now, there is a distinct chance Allan might not pitch again in a minor league game until 2023. Which sucks.
Losing spring training games also sucks, because reduced games reduces the chance that many of these guys will get into televised games in any meaningful way.
Hey, where is last year's sensation, Sam McWilliams, today? The bum in 2021 had 49 innings in the minors, an ERA above 8, and 47 runs and 49 walks. AND 16 hit batsmen!
This is what I wrote about Sam the Sham and another "prospect" last winter:
"...other guys like a Sam McWilliams and a Franklyn Kilome just give up too many base runners for my liking, so they are out of my top 30".
Kilome? He was a lot better (3-3, 3.91) than Sam in 2021, but he had 35 combined walks and HBP in 46 innings - too many. Both guys are tall...were born in 1995...and had wild 2021's. Only Kilome is still with the Mets - I probably should have him in my top 50, but the control thing is enough for me to make him - oh, I don't know - # 51.
I did, BTW, have Tylor Megill at # 5. I guess I nailed that one last year.
I guess we can assume with all the draft picks this June we should be in great shape from a depth stand point and never got the thing about being top heavy in prospects like it would be better to be bottom heavy? It will work itself out and with a whole new organization in place and Stevie's all in attitude I'm happier about our team than I have been in along time so now CAN THEY PLEASE SETTLE THIS CBA NONSENSE so we can say LGM!!
Thanks for your list. It is great to read what you think. Looking forward to your next list. Who do you think could be a sleeper prospect like an Oller or Orze in 2022.
Magnum and Rincon are two guys that intrigue me. Big power from Rincon,and good defense and great improvement from a little ballyhooed prospect,Magnum.. Maybe one makes it to the Bigs.
Raw, my sleep for 2022 is Cole Gordon. I really liked how he looked in video that John posted up ere recently. Go up to the inquiry line on the page, put his name in, and the article will come up with the videos. See what you think.
My other sleeper, if healthy, is Bryce Montes de Oca. When you throw 100, you just need command to jump up fast. He is a big, imposing dude. I think if it all came together for him, he could be a Goose Gossage type.
I was glad to see Keith Law rank Mark Vientos in baseball's top 100. I can just not get past this: after losing 2020, Vientos jumped over Hi A to AA, and as a 21 year old at AA and AAA had 21 HRs in his last 200 at bats (numbers approximate). THAT is incredibly impressive. My guess is no one else in all of baseball's minor leagues went on a HR tear like that in 2021. If he'd gotten up another 200 times in 2021, which he would have in a normal season, maybe he hits 40 to 45 homers. In the high minors. As a 21 year old.
Alex, maybe both make the bigs later in 2022. Both have one big problem, external to them - this will be a team built to win, so the threshold to get promoted will be high. Back in 2012-13 timeframe, when they had Collin Cowgill, Matt den Dekker and others, it would have been much easier.
Gary, give me top heavy any day, over bottom heavy. Winning in MLB ball is all about top quality.
The last 5 years have largely been a tale of the Mets relying far too much on fringe pitchers and hitters who, sad to say, collectively failed miserably. You want to win, without sheer luck? You have to greatly limit the use of marginal players, who in the past I monikered as "subs and scrubs".
Not to keep making endless references to the Yankees, but over the years, they've understood that, while the Mets clearly have not.
Good job Tom. When will Mack post his top prospects?
That I would not know.
Nice write up Tom. I cannot disagree with your rankings. I would like all of them to be top 10, but I guess that can't happen.
I would really like to see at least two of Ziegler, Hamel, and Vasil make it into solid mid-level, or even 4th starters.
And yeah, what I read of Simon Juan, sounds like he could climb up the list a bit. If anything, it makes the entire top of the list deeper.
Rincon was impressive in Binghamton last year. That trade could be a big win for the Mets at some point.
The Mets system has a chance to be really stacked after the draft this year. I just hope they don't trade off the top.
R69, I hope they have a depleted system because 8 of the top 10 have been promoted before year end. That’s a great way to deplete.
I agree that that is a good way to deplete, but if that happens, bad things have happened at the top and Citi Field will look like a M*A*S*H unit.
John from Albany would tell you that's where Wilmer Reyes comes in.
But seriously, with how many pitchers they go thru, even if they cut that by 10 from last year, they will use 27 or 28 pitchers, so it is a big opportunity ahead for Orze, Butto, Szapucki, Walker, Gordon, and perhaps Metoyer. Yamamoto ought to have a chance (his last?) to show he is a big leaguer in caliber.
And I will not rule Ginn out. The good ones can come fast.
Tom, some points:
-Vasil is a RHP, and according to a recent interview Law claims he may be the best pitcher the Mets drafted last year.
-It’s your list and you can put them in any order you choose, but can you elaborate on a first baseman with little power that didn’t even reach the Mendoza line being 21st?
-Yes, Reyes is a strange omission but so is Joel Diaz. Palmer did well last year at Low-A but struggled in High-A. Also, if you have De Oca and Metoyer, how do you leave Holderman off who is ahead of them in command with similar velo?
Good conversation, and keep an eye on Dedniel Nunez, who he Giants had to return to the Mets because he got hurt and didn’t pitch the required innings in order to keep him.
And to go a bit out on that limb, I have Newton still on my top 30 and I say by this time next year you will too!
Gus, I don't know where I got Vasil lodged in my brain as a lefty - but thanks for that.
Joel Diaz - I want to see him stateside first - too many superstars in the DSL who fall flat when they cross the pond. Hopefully, he will dominate stateside too, and I will rush him up the list.
I overlooked Holderman, even in my 31-50, but with his frequent injuries, I am tired of ranking guys who just don't pitch much - until they do pitch much.
Newton - man, I just hope there was something wrong for him last year - he actually regressed in 2021 from his 2019. He is one of those guys, if I were him, I would study every high contact successful guy I could to see how to cut his Ks in half.
I was a Dedniel fn - glad he's back - I will have to work him in, as soon as he shows he is healthy.
Gus, with Schwartz? I just feel it was a tough assignment - low A, not in rookie ball, where everyone used to start out in. I think he'll be fine in 2022. Hopefully, he realizes that he is at a power position and adjusts his game accordingly. He has to hit better than, say, a Patrick Mazeika has to have a real chance.
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