While everyone seems to be focusing on the Mets team pitching woes for this offseason with Jacob deGrom and Edwin Diaz seeming to occupy slots 1 and 2 in either order, the fact is there is a perhaps much more critical decision to make on the offensive side of the ledger.
Much to everyone's surprise, Nimmo truly cemented his defensive game once he knew where he was going to be playing every day. Also unusual for Nimmo was his steady reliability playing there, making it into 151 out of 162 games, a career high. His offensive game has been refined to be an on-base machine between hits and walks.
Three times he's crossed the .400 mark for OBP and although he was down to a more human .367 mark in 2022, he's a tough at-bat for opposing pitchers.
Between his offense and defense last season he earned a 5.0 WAR rating. With the metric often used that each WAR is worth $8 million, that would say he was contributing at the level of a $40 million player. No one is suggesting Nimmo is truly at that level, but he'll be seeking a multiyear deal north of $20 million per season. Is he worth it?
Before we get into the pros and cons of seeing Nimmo out there for the next five years or so, consider for a moment the alternatives. Right now going into 2023 there is precious little in the free agent market for center fielders.
Yes, folks are toying with what it would be like to lure Aaron Judge across town and perhaps push Starling Marte back to his original center field position, but other than that option the outfield options are pretty thin.
Wil Myers is a right handed player with a similar profile to Nimmo, but is a bit older and works in a corner outfield slot. He's coming off a $20 million annual salary and although he should cost less, he's not going to be a bargain.
A.J. Pollock is now a corner outfielder as well and is a bit older. His numbers were similar with some baserunning speed earlier in his career but now he's not a good prospect for a long term investment.
If you'd like a flashback to the 1970s, offer a deal to the increasingly well traveled Joey Gallo. He's the modern day version of Dave Kingman, struggling to pass the Mendoza line but with great home run power. Personally I'd pass.
A slightly more productive version of Gallo is Adam Duvall who once hit 38 HRs and drove in 113 for the Atlanta Braves. However, that level of productivity was a one-off year in 2021. He's a career .230 hitter who is likely not going to be worth what he'd like to earn.
Kevin Kiermaier is a great fielder with Gold Glove credentials but he's not much of an offensive weapon. As much as the fans would like to see a Big Orange & Blue Machine that could sustain a Cesar Geronimo type, the Mets are not quite there roster-wise.
Andrew Benintendi is a good Nimmo type when it comes to batting average, power and hitting from the left side. He's not going to blow you away defensively and worked in left field for most of his career.
One guy who is not all that familiar to Mets fans is Seattle's Mitch Haniger. He's a right handed hitter who has had a few impressive seasons with the bat. He's been a right fielder which would once again force Marte back to center, but his numbers are pretty appealing with a 93 RBI season and a 100 RBI season accompanied by good power.
Quite familiar to the Mets is Joc Pederson, the lefty hitting slugger who is only a .237 hitter for his career. He's mostly a platoon type these days and the Mets don't really have the right handed complement unless that's how you envision Mark Canha for the future.
There are others out there like Jurickson Profar, Robbie Grossman, Kole Calhoun and David Peralta, but none really get you too excited. I'm on board with the Trea Turner as an outfielder dialog that's been heating up, but right now it would appear that a center fielder to replace Nimmo would have to come via trade rather than free agency.
10 comments:
Trea Turner cuuld be an interesting alternative; Haniger I am not familiar enough to say. Nimmo likley had 3-5 very good years ahead of him, and the last thing we'd want to see is him leave and a division rival like the Phillies snatch him up and torment us for years to come. I want to keep Brandon. Let's go Brandon. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
No choice but to keep him assuming numbers are reasonable.
Here's Haniger:
https://www.mlb.com/player/mitch-haniger-571745
Here's Nimmo:
https://www.mlb.com/player/brandon-nimmo-607043
You're going to a righty instead of a lefty. They are .261 and .269 respectively in batting average, but Haniger is far ahead in homers and RBIs. He is two years older which means perhaps a 3-year deal would be possible instead of the 5 you'd likely have to commit to Nimmo who has a major injury history. I'm guessing Haniger would be cheaper in terms of AAV and years. It's worth considering.
I think it is imperative to sign Nimmo to a deal and keep him in the center of Citi for a long time. However, I understand that he can get outpriced in the market, so if he does go, the Mets should look long and hard at their inside options as well as free agency. Both Jake Mangum and a converted Ronny Mauricio could be viable options in center field, particularly under the mentorship of Starling Marte.
I do like Brandon but Trea is a very intriguing option and my pick because he can steal a base and wouldn't we all love to have that ability at the leadoff position. Just think of having a guy who can steal a base AND a guy in Nido who can bunt in the same lineup WOW old time baseball AND the elimination of shifts which I'm really looking forward to.
Small ball is more exciting to watch. Eppler is behind high OBP and high OPS. Sometimes power hitters are too much of all or nothing and that kind of offense is not consistently productive. Think about the guys who can rocket a ball over the fence over 20 times per year but struggle not to strike out or hit weak grounders the rest of the time. Think about Vogelbach's slump, for example.
Too often these deals are viewed as next years production and not the following years. Nimms has improved his D, but I would not expect his to stay in CF for the next five years. I am of the mind that it is ok to sacrifice some level of production next year, If the following years make up for it and comes at a substantially less price tag. I know that Mangum is an unproven commodity, but he has already shown excellent bat to ball, even if he has not yet figured out the OBP. He will be a better defender than Nimms if you look at next five years and comes at a league min. This is an area that I wouldn’t spend big on given other priorities. But that being said, I am also of the mind that it is probably best to let Jake go also. Age, injuries and the fact a SP only impacts every five days. Mets had Jake and Max back to back in Atlanta to win division and fell flat and again in playoffs for over $70M for two players. I prefer a balanced and longer term view when … signing players long term
If the Mets offer Nimmo anything at all -even a QO - I expect Nimmo to jump on it. I suspect he still talks occasionally with Mr. Conforto.
By all means give him a QO. But he isn’t taking that. No way do I offer a 5 year deal. Three years ,OK. If he walks sign Correa or Turner if the Dodgers let him go.
Quick correction. Marte never won a Gold Glove for his play in center field. He played all of 34 games there in the two seasons he won his Gold Gloves, 2015 and 2016. He won the Gold Gloves for his work as the Pirates' left fielder (256 games over the two seasons).
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