Rather than look at who did what right and who did what wrong in the 2022 season, instead lets look ahead to the future 2023 Mets roster and the job Billy Eppler has in front of him addressing the players who may opt to leave Queens for greener pastures for their bank accounts elsewhere.
It is not always strictly like Jose Reyes where a single dollar was all that mattered. Sometimes it is a change of venue and greater opportunity to play that rings a louder bell for prospective free agents. The Mets have a few of those types in this list and that's where the front office needs to separate the wheat from the chaff.
How big is the Mets free agent crop? Would you believe that 50% of the club's 26 man roster are eligible for free agency? Yikes! After winning 101 games in 2022 I can't help reacting like Maxwell Smart, "I asked you not to tell me that!"
So let's have a look at who can choose to leave, what they did and what in many cases it might cost to retain them. I'm not necessarily saying my financial projections are all worth making, but I had to ascertain a term and an annual salary for this exercise.
The next metric worth looking at is WAR with the calculated cost per WAR being what seems most relevant. If you're going to pay a fortune to a ballplayer, then you would expect to get a great return on the money. Here Nimmo shines with a $1.4 million cost for what he did on the field and Vogelbach surprisingly costs even less given his modest salary. Both seem worth considering. You all can debate the payroll burden for each but I threw some ideas on the wall up above.
Let's start with the bye-bye squad. I don't think there's a fan nor media type present who would shed any tears if Trevor May was sent packing. Between his seemingly unorthodox delivery style, the resulting injuries and the mediocre performance, his free agency will go down in Mets history alongside larger calamities like Jason Bay.
Seth Lugo is a particularly tough case. The Mets held pretty firm to underpaying him by major league standards while they controlled him and much preferred to see him in the role of setup guy in the pen where he has performed admirably. He's been healthy and appeared regularly in quite a few games, including two seasons where he topped 60.
How big is the Mets free agent crop? Would you believe that 50% of the club's 26 man roster are eligible for free agency? Yikes! After winning 101 games in 2022 I can't help reacting like Maxwell Smart, "I asked you not to tell me that!"
So let's have a look at who can choose to leave, what they did and what in many cases it might cost to retain them. I'm not necessarily saying my financial projections are all worth making, but I had to ascertain a term and an annual salary for this exercise.
Wow, that's quite a bevy of prospective talent leaving Let's take the offensive side of the equation first since they are smaller in number than the pitchers. In addition to the obvious metrics, I added in a variable called "FIT" which represents on a scale of 1-5 how well they fit into the team chemistry and complement the value they produce towards winning games.
In this brief exercise I have Brandon Nimmo at a full 5 on this measure while Daniel Vogelbach comes in at the middle of the range. He seems popular with his teammates but his usefulness is limited to DH and only hitting from the left side. He does work the pitchers hard and draws a lot of walks but his girth makes him a liability on the basepaths. Naquin is simply a non-entity in this regard.
The next metric worth looking at is WAR with the calculated cost per WAR being what seems most relevant. If you're going to pay a fortune to a ballplayer, then you would expect to get a great return on the money. Here Nimmo shines with a $1.4 million cost for what he did on the field and Vogelbach surprisingly costs even less given his modest salary. Both seem worth considering. You all can debate the payroll burden for each but I threw some ideas on the wall up above.
Now it comes to the really tough part. On a more-or-less 13 man pitching staff you are facing the prospect of losing ten of them! You can't keep them all and perhaps you shouldn't want to do so. How you evaluate starters, closers and middle relievers are all very different, but you do still need to look at the metrics to make an evaluation.
Let's start with the bye-bye squad. I don't think there's a fan nor media type present who would shed any tears if Trevor May was sent packing. Between his seemingly unorthodox delivery style, the resulting injuries and the mediocre performance, his free agency will go down in Mets history alongside larger calamities like Jason Bay.
Seth Lugo is a particularly tough case. The Mets held pretty firm to underpaying him by major league standards while they controlled him and much preferred to see him in the role of setup guy in the pen where he has performed admirably. He's been healthy and appeared regularly in quite a few games, including two seasons where he topped 60.
The gut feeling is that the man will want to not only be paid more equitably but will also seek to find a club that will give him the chance to start because other than closers, relievers tend to get second rate salaries. I'd offer him a nice chunk of change at 4 years for a total of $18 million which represents a more than 33% increase in pay with the understanding that he is a reliever, not a starter. Expect him to reject it.
Mychal Givens got off to a very rough start as a New York Met, but as I've suggested in the past you need to look at the back of his baseball card to see what kind of pitcher he's been in his career. For a guy with a lifetime 32-43 record and 3.40 ERA who owns a .217 BAA, I wouldn't be so quick to toss him to the scrap heap.
Mychal Givens got off to a very rough start as a New York Met, but as I've suggested in the past you need to look at the back of his baseball card to see what kind of pitcher he's been in his career. For a guy with a lifetime 32-43 record and 3.40 ERA who owns a .217 BAA, I wouldn't be so quick to toss him to the scrap heap.
If you're potentially losing Seth Lugo, those many missing games must be filled and Givens has 6 times in an eight year career been in that 60-game range. At age 32 you could offer him a multiyear deal in the range of what I suggested for Lugo and he would likely take it.
Trevor Williams is another tough call but there's no reason it has to be.
Trevor Williams is another tough call but there's no reason it has to be.
Keep him. He was a high quality pitcher for the Mets both in the pen and as a spot starter. For $3.9 million last year you got great value and although he's not a big strikeout pitcher, he delivers quality and would provide great insurance in the event the team is forced to add not one but both of Tylor Megill and David Peterson to next season's starting rotation.
I threw the numbers of 3 years at $18 million total to take his salary up from $3.9 to $6 million which is chump change compared to most of the rest of the roster and would be money well spent.
Adam Ottavino would have raged across all the headlines for relief pitchers had he not been in the shadow of Timmy Trumpet's favorite reliever. Appearing in 66 games at age 36 he was spot on, with a 2.06 ERA and even managed to accumulate a handful of saves.
Adam Ottavino would have raged across all the headlines for relief pitchers had he not been in the shadow of Timmy Trumpet's favorite reliever. Appearing in 66 games at age 36 he was spot on, with a 2.06 ERA and even managed to accumulate a handful of saves.
His salary was a palatable $4 million and I think at his advanced pitching age a small increase over 3 years would keep him in Queens for the rest of his career. I threw out the possibility of $5 million per year for 3 more years and perhaps an option for a 4th. Aging middle relievers don't usually land megabucks so he might just accept what's offered.
Now comes the biggie. How much is Edwin Diaz worth to the Mets? For a point of comparison, the highest paid relievers in the game are earning in the $16 to $18 million per season range. Diaz's numbers are truly unbelievable and he is still just 28 years old.
Now comes the biggie. How much is Edwin Diaz worth to the Mets? For a point of comparison, the highest paid relievers in the game are earning in the $16 to $18 million per season range. Diaz's numbers are truly unbelievable and he is still just 28 years old.
I'd up that ante to $22 million per year for 5 years, a total of $110 million, making him the highest paid reliever in the game and a focal point of the Mets through the end of his age 33 season. At that time you can reconsider how well the money was spent.
The starting pitching is even scarier than the relievers. Four of the top five starting pitchers are all eligible to flex their "pay me more" muscles and some undoubtedly will. I've already voiced the opinion that the Mets need to make a fair offer to Jacob deGrom that is most definitely associated with games pitched, but the union would never support him taking that kind of deal.
The starting pitching is even scarier than the relievers. Four of the top five starting pitchers are all eligible to flex their "pay me more" muscles and some undoubtedly will. I've already voiced the opinion that the Mets need to make a fair offer to Jacob deGrom that is most definitely associated with games pitched, but the union would never support him taking that kind of deal.
If he wants the Max Scherzer money, that's $130 million for three seasons at an AAV of $3.3 million per season. For a guy who made 11 starts that were good but not Cy Young worthy in 2022, just 15 starts at supreme level in 2021, that's less than a year's worth of pitching in two full seasons combined. I just can't see how you go to the tank for that kind of financial fuel without some kind of safeguard in place.
He started his pitching career late after conversion and then missed time due to TJS. I'd even offer some kind of escalator contract for three years at say $35 million, $40 million and $45 million which are reachable for games started. Then you're approaching the Scherzer value but tempering the risk.
The next most valuable Met to consider is one who people have already dismissed as no big deal if he leaves. Take a closer look at Taijuan Walker's numbers (especially that 2.6 WAR rating) and realize he's not going to be easy to replace. He cost less money than did Chris Bassitt and is younger.
The next most valuable Met to consider is one who people have already dismissed as no big deal if he leaves. Take a closer look at Taijuan Walker's numbers (especially that 2.6 WAR rating) and realize he's not going to be easy to replace. He cost less money than did Chris Bassitt and is younger.
What works against him is injury history and you'd think that not having been a steady 30+ starts guy for his career will discount his overall price a bit (hence his attractiveness to the Wilpons). If you gave him say $10 million per year for 5 years, that $50 million is only a little more than a single year from deGrom and Scherzer, yet he delivers All Star level pitching.
Others seem much more enthralled about keeping Chris Bassitt on the hill as he's been incredibly healthy and over the past few years has pitched better than he did earlier in his career. Right now he's making under $9 million but they're talking about a $19 million plus salary for 2023 and beyond.
Others seem much more enthralled about keeping Chris Bassitt on the hill as he's been incredibly healthy and over the past few years has pitched better than he did earlier in his career. Right now he's making under $9 million but they're talking about a $19 million plus salary for 2023 and beyond.
A deal for a 33 year old guy who really became a regular starter in 2019 shouldn't be prohibitively expensive, but it's not chump change. For a comparison the Phillies kicked in about $23 million per year on Zack Wheeler with very similar numbers and the Angels were not far off at $21 million for an injury recovering Noah Syndergaard.
I'd go a little lower but lure him in with duration by offering Bassitt $20 million per season for his next four years with a 5th year option. $80 million is not outrageous and his health places him well above Walker in terms of cost.
Now the other one the Mets might want to consider allowing to leave is clubhouse but not necessarily fan and media popular Carlos Carrasco. He has had a tough road to hoe in terms of his personal health and made a commendable comeback for the former Indians. He strung together three very good years in a row between 2016 and 2018 when he was pitching in the 3.30 range for ERA.
Now the other one the Mets might want to consider allowing to leave is clubhouse but not necessarily fan and media popular Carlos Carrasco. He has had a tough road to hoe in terms of his personal health and made a commendable comeback for the former Indians. He strung together three very good years in a row between 2016 and 2018 when he was pitching in the 3.30 range for ERA.
Unfortunately before and after were not quite as impressive. Going into this offseason the Mets and Carrasco hold a mutual option to pay him $14 million to keep him for one more year or pay him $3 million to cut him loose. Is it worth the $11 million differential for a guy approaching a 4.00 ERA? Methinks not. However, until you know what's happening with deGrom, Walker, Bassitt, Williams, Megill and Peterson, all cards must be on the table.
So who is on your keeper list?
10 comments:
That is quite a breakdown. Without going into the weeds on all of them, I want Nimmo, Diaz and Ottavino back, for sure. The rest, I willleave to those who write the checks, except to say that I’d be OK with adding a Judge or Turner, Trea, that is, super-charging the offense, muddling thru 2023 with lesser cost pitching, and adding starters from the minors in 2024.
It is also, health permitting, for Megill and Peterson to stand tall with their starting pitching next year.
If we don’t get Judge, force the Skanks to pay more.
Excellent, comprehensive article, Reese. It's going to be tough for choices to be made, as I expect even Steve Cohen to have some sort of budget limit. And there MUST be consideration given to extensions for the Squirrel abd the Polar Bear.
Starting at the top of my list are Nimmo and Diaz, both deserving of 4-5 years and both having already stated their desire to remain Mets.
Surprisingly, while I have been a strong fan of Jake, I am disappointed with his opting out of a deal that guarantees him over &60 mil over the next two years. While he's still at the top of ML SPs based on his talent, his health issues greatly diminish his value. While he MAY turn out to be worth the rest of his contract, I'd offer him a QU and get a draft pick while moving on.
I'd keep Otto, Williams and Givens in the pen, and would be interested in Lugo if he's over his unhappiness in the pen, but I expect him to walk.
Bassitt and Walker are definite keepers, Carrasco not so much. FA additions are possible, but I wouldn't cry if Peterson and Megill are in the rotation, along with an opportunity for Butto in mid-season if needed.
Vogie is worth keeping, Ruf not. Naquin on a 1-year deal is worth a shot as a backup.
You'd better make serious offers to retain Bassitt and Walker while keeping Carrasco on the back burner. Even Williams might deliver equivalent pitching for way less money.
Great work, Reese! We knew there would be a lot of tough choices.
I agree with Tom that Diaz, Nimmo, and Otto are high priority keepers. Throw Bassitt on that list, as he was the best #3 SP you could ever hope for.
Lugo is going to continue to be good, but I agree that he may look for a team that gives him more money for a more substantial role. He deserves it - but not sure the Mets will give it to him. Jake is going to continue to be a dominant pitcher that everyone wants, but few want to pay for. It feels disloyal to say he's not worth the money, but when you measure $/WAR or even $/win, it seems like the money you need to pay him would buy more value when spent on multiple other players. Just hope he ends up in the AL.
Paul, but not on the Yankees (unless we sign Judge away from them)
I'd trade Jake for Judge, even up (yes, I know that FAs can't be traded). Which would you prefer, all other factors aside.
As much as I hate the Yankees, I could live with Jake pitching there if AJ were doing his thing in Flushing.
Another well written article. Agree with some of your recommendations and disagree with others. Time for me to draft my thoughts.
Keep Carrasco, keep one of Bassit,Walker. Gotta keep Diaz,Ottavino.With DeGrom money sign one of the shortstops. Sign Bell as DH sign a FA pitcher,Syndergard,Clevinger. Hope Baty and Alvarez are ready to step up. Time to get younger and cheaper.
Day late here, but from super fan Steve's perspective, I hope he prioritizes short term 2-3 year deals at record setting AAVs for DeGrom & Verlander (no QO pick loss this year) if Kate wants to move to NY. Would LOVE to add Judge, but it really messes up the draft to sign any QO free agents.
Looking at another site's top 10 free agent list, I resort it by who would have a QO attached. Correa has no QO this year. Did Rodon have a QO last year? I think he did. Basically, it's more likely the Mets take the budget way up to 360M plus, than that they sign any one with a QO because of the draft related penalties. So Degrom, Verlander and Rodon, instead of Judge, Turner, or Swanson. But who knows? LFGM!
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