As all you regular readers know, I retired from writing about the Mets and concentrate my time on providing our readers quality info on the 2023 draft prospects.
I thought I should come out of retirement to give you my thoughts on the 2022 season and the team all of you root for.
Yes, the playoffs begin this week, and the Mets still could win it all, but my thoughts on this team will not change regardless where they finish.
1. First of all, I want to send kudos to the NL East champs, the Atlanta Braves. The defending world champ has now won this division FIVE seasons in-a-row and they swept the Mets last week to end any discussion which team is the best this season.
2. Yes the Mets lost six of the last seven games against the Braves, but I truly feel this whole thing was lost when they went under water when they played the Pirates and Cubs. Swept by the Cubs? That’s like being swept by the FCL Mets. Regardless of what losing school you are part of (Hi Friere), one win against Chicago would have named them the division champs,
3. The Braves are the perfect template to copy. Draft better. Sign more top International guppies. Don’t rush your kiddies, but, if their talent outpaces the level they are playing at, move them up even as far as the city of Atlanta. Then, PLAY THEM REGULARLY when the get there. Letting them rot on the bench and calling upon them to excel in spotty situatons is like signing Cam Reddish and not putting him in the rotation.
4. The Mets must come to the realization that their major problem, year after year, is the FAILURE OF STARTING PITCHERS and THE FAILURE TO DEVELOP QUALITY RELIEVERS. Even worse than this is the fact that a very large percentage of their best pitching prospects have been traded away, sometimes for veteran failures. Pitching wins or loses baseball games. Period.
5. Continuing on point four, why can other teams graduate their 2021 draft selections, and even their picks in the last draft, while the Mets picks rot away on the Florida team? Let’s use catcher Kevin Parada as an example. He was drafted after his junior year in college, not a senior in high school. I didn’t major in math, but isn’t that THREE MORE YEARS OF BASEBALL? Why did the Mets play this huge talent in Florida all season? Why couldn’t he at least start for Brooklyn? The Mets have operated with this slow promotion plan under two owners, so is this a Sandy thing? They trade some and slow pace the rest. Shaking my head.
6. STOP trading your top prospects. Stop. Stop it now. The Mets draft or sign very talented kids and then piss them away for meh AAAA players that the team seems to feel that lightning will strike and they will all pitch like Sandy Koufax or hit like Willie Mays. Then, they sign these duds to multiple year deals that screw up more than one season’s 26-man plan. You just can’t keep signing high price free agents to bring home the gold. That kind of plan would be close to a $400mil payroll.
7. I repeat this subject more than Tom shortens the fences. SIGN MORE TOP INTERNATIONAL 16 YEAR OLDS. This isn’t some $100mil contract here. It’s a one time multi-million dollar bonus and the Mets should sign FOUR of these, no matter what the penalty is. The Yankees, Braves, and Padres never worried about the penalties. Oh. Are these three teams in the playoffs?
8. Build your 2023 team around the top players you have signed...
1B Pete Alonso Arbitration A2
2B Jeff McNeil Arbitration A2
SS Francisco Lindor $32,477mil
3B Eduardo Escobar $9.5mil
IF Luis Guillorme Arbitration A2
LF Mark Cahna $11.5mil
RF Sterling Marte $20.75mil
SP Max Scherzer $43.33mil
SP David Peterson Arbitration A1
SP Tylor Mcgill Pre-arbitration
RP Drew Smith Arbitraton A2
Now, add the pre-arb kids that are ready to play FULL TIME in 2023. There really is nothing left for these guys to do in the minors:
3B-DH Brett Baty
3B-OF-DH Mark Vientos
C Francisco Alvarez
CF Jake Magnum
SP Jose Butto
RP Stephen Nogosek
This totals to 17 players, leaving nine others to be placed on the 26-man roster. You need another catcher, and my choice would be Tomas Nido. You need one more outfielder and a bunch of pitchers.
What’s important, you have the money to re-sign some of the players who played this year, or seek new players via free agency (again… do not trade away anymore prospects).
In closing, someone asked me if I am happy with what the Mets have accomplished this year. I asked that person two questions. One, who came in second behind Jesse Owens in that historic Olympics run (it actually was the 2nd fastest time ever at the time behind Owens) and what did the second US astronaut that walked on the moon say when his foot hit the surface?
19 comments:
Good points, Mack.
That Ruf trade ruffles my feathers almost as much as the Crow trade did in 2021. I think trading Holderman for Vogelbach made sense. It wouldn't have been necessary had Dom Smith offered more than a buck 98 with no homers. But that was the reality.
But Ruf? JDD hit OK, but lost a lot of long drives to the Citi warning track. So they traded him for a washed up Ruf - straight up that was bad enough.
But then there is Szapucki (10 outings for SFG, 14 innings, 3 runs, 16 Ks). Looks like a valuable lefty reliever to me, all ready for 2023.
Carson Seymour post-trade? The 6'6" righty had 43 Ks in 29 innings in High A. Wow.
Nick Zwack post-trade? The lefty was 3.99 with 36 Ks in 29 IP after pitching great for Mets' affiliate pre-trade.
That was an incredibly damaging trade. Just alone because, had they kept JDD, they probably win the division. One of the Mets' worst trades ever?
So, I agree - STOP TRADING PITCHING.
The one extra outfielder should be Nimmo re-signed. He was a big, big part of 101 wins. He and McNeil make this team go.
Reliever? I am hoping Bryce Montes de Oca's entire off season routine is designed around refining his control. Orze? Maybe. Hartwig? Maybe. Slim pickings indeed. We simply need Edwin and Ottavino back. If we had two mediocre arms in 2022 rather than those guys, we'd have won 85 games.
Butto? I think at best he is a 6th starter in 2023. Probably mid-2023. I got Trevor Williams in there, if they re-sign him. Or Megill, who I expect to rebound in 2023 and become a 6 inning starter. Whether they sign Taijuan is up to the FO.
AA/AAA pitching this year was mostly brutal. A-ballers Askew and Hamel might be useful at some point in 2023 for the Mets, but not in the first half. Matt Allan 2024? Anyone's guess.
Jake? My brother badly wants him back. I wish my fierce brother had an hour with mild-mannered Jake. He'd convince him to unleash some nasty to climb higher. If Jake goes to Atlanta and stays healthy, it is "raise the white flag" time. I saw my brother pitch just once, at age 17 before he wrecked his shoulder, against a Canadian HS All Star team. First guy got a hit. My brother was a volcano. Next pitch - guy got it right in the ribs. Stormed down off the mound, yelling. Next 9 guys? Down on strikes, totally intimidated by a ranting, raving (highly effective) lunatic on the mound. Jake is into non-violence, one hit batter after 2019. He needs a little Steve Brennan in him to be better.
JAKE - too much $
BUTTO - tween SP
OCA - too many passes
RUF - not tuf enuf
Oh man I had no idea Trevor Williams was a FA too! So Williams, DeGrom, Bassitt, Walker can all leave...ouch. I guess we hope Butto can step in for one of them.
Its interesting that McNeils name was floated as being traded this past offseason. I'm not sure if there was any reality to it but its crazy to think if it was considered. It feels like McNeil has had to continually prove himself every year despite being one of the best players on the team since he came up. He has often taken the back seat to players like Alonso, Cano etc. If you think about it DeGrom was always playing 2nd fiddle for a while too with the more outspoken Thor & Harvey. I guess thats why McNeil & DeGrom have been my fave Mets players since they broke into the majors. The underdog, unheralded prospects that quietly take care of business and become stars.
Another thought...we finished with the same record as the Braves. It came down to the series being 10-9....what is also been unsaid is that the Braves had the 10-9 home field advantage for the 19 games. It was so close that could have even been the difference maker. Here is to hoping that sitting around for 5 days has the Braves and Dodgers less sharp than those that kept playing.
SEYMOUR - this will hurt
Only 4th time a 100 game winner didn't win division
I can feel the passion in this post. I think in the next few years we will see a major shift in how the Mets handle their prospects. Steve is just getting started and he will keep improving the internal systems until it functions as he sees fit. I'm optimistic about the future of Mets prospect development. The handling of Vientos and Alvarez this year was not what I had in mind but hopefully they learn. LFGM
Steve and I are Twitter friends. Sent.
I'll be really curious to see what they do in the upcoming international signing period. I know a lot of these deals are done years in advance, so we may not even yet be at the point where the Mets can flex their muscles with Steve Cohen's cash. Curious if you've heard anything, Mack
Steve did flex late last year in the International draft after reading what I privately sent him
Good stuff Mack. I'll be sharing my thoughts on next year's Mets when I recover from this nasty head cold.
Mack,
Excellent article. Outstanding analysis for the 2023 team.
Mike,
The Mets are linked to these 2023 International prospects according to MLB pipeline.
Daiverson Gutierrez, catcher, Venezuela, 27th ranked
Anthony Baptist , Of , Dominican Republic, 29th ranked
Christopher Larez , ss , Venezuela, 43rd ranked
Three of the top 50 ranked prospects should be a good start in replacing some of our traded prospects.
All good points, Mack......and yes, you are correct that even winning one of the three games against the Cubs would have made the Mets division champs (or if they win DeGrom's start in Oakland, etc). My feeling is that Atlanta showed who was the better team during the last seven games.....yes, they were all in Atlanta, but can't you win just one of them with your three best starters teed up the way you want?
Would I take a division title despite getting kicked around in Atlanta the last month of the year? Heck yes! But, I think the Braves are still a bit ahead of us overall.....not insurmountable, but the gap is still there.
Oh and as far as the Padres series this weekend goes, I am shaking my head at the "strategies" being tossed around by some of the experts (that Abriano dude, for one). So, let's hold one of our aces back, so we can use them more to our advantage in the next series?
We haven't won this one yet! And by the way, the Padres kicked the Mets' asses this year (they won four out of six and outscored us 36-23 in the process.......we also scored 2 or fewer runs in four of the six games, which might be a harbinger if things to come).
In my opinion, you throw Max, Jake and Bassitt (if needed) in a row and hope it works better then the last high profile series you tried that in Atlanta. Worry about the Dodgers (or possibly Atlanta) when the time comes. Even discussing the "strategy" listed earlier is extremely disrespectful to San Diego.
SD had a cold Soto, Snell and Hader for a long time. The latter 2 are hot now, and Soto can erupt at any time. That makes them dangerous.
Great post Mack! Right on the money.
No one answered your second question. Here it is right from Buzz Aldrin's lips: "I am the second man to step on the moon. Neil before me."
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