Tom Brennan - A Fresh Look at In-House Back-End Starters

LOOKING OUTSIDE FOR STARTERS? TURN AROUND & LOOK IN-HOUSE.

The below are excerpts from an article I wrote on October 26, tweaked a bit, which article I recalled as we watched 41 Home Run Generation Machines like Lucas "Sky Wars" Giolito get $19 million per year for two years from the club whose Sox are Red - the Red Sox probably figured they'd offset that gargantuan outlay by saving on fireworks show costs. 

What in-house options exist that might inexpensively work?

TYLOR MEGILL:

(In his) final eight (2023) starts? 

His ERA? 3.00.  

(That ERA over a full season would give you the 6th best starter ERA in baseball.)

45 innings, 15 runs.  And he did win 9 this year.

Maybe those last 8 starts are telling us we are giving him insufficient credit for being a credible 2024 starter candidate (and give insufficient weight to how trying to pitch through injury (earlier in the season) negatively impacted his season ERA).

DAVID PETERSON:

Last 2 seasons, a gaudy 254 Ks in 217 innings. 

A slightly higher K/9 rate over the last 2 seasons than…MAX SCHERZER? 

Really? Yes, really.

In his last 15 games, Peterson’s 3.56 ERA is indicative of him figuring a lot out, leading to discontinuance of his early season poundings. 

Can he retain those lessons learned in 2024 (assuming a full recovery from hip surgery)?  Hope so.

JOEY LUCCHESI:

...Joey (in the) 2023 season...posted a...4-0, 2.89 record. 

One thing I know: 4-0, 2.89 is GOOD.

If all our pitchers went 4-0, the Mets would have finished roughly 162-0.

Just call him Joey Perfect, given his perfect 4-0.

JOSE BUTTO:

He got in just nine Mets games, and had a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. Which is bad because…?  

Can't think of why bad.  Can you?

He was just 1-4, which in an organization with a mediocre offense and equally weak bullpen can happen when a guy pitches good. 

After all, our back-to-back-Cy Young guy was just 21-17.

So, go ahead, panic like we did last off-season, and spend a ton on a high profile F.A. pitcher who'll get hurt like all the other heavily used and abused aces do.  

Or, go cheap.  

Me? Cheap, cheap, cheap.

I would just add strongly to the pen and make do with these 4 in-house starter guys in 2024; soon enough, Vasil and Hamel and Scott will be ready to "pitch in".

And...maybe you did not realize this, but starter ERAs tend to be higher than the bullpen's ERA.

Just 7 teams had starter ERAs below 4.00.  Average MLB starter ERA? 4.47.

But 15 team's bullpen innings were below 4.00. Average MLB reliever ERA? 4.16.

So, keep that in mind, s'il vous plait.  

So...if you see a starter ERA that looks a little high, that starter has plenty of MLB company.  

C'mon, man....for starters, you can cut him some slack.

An interesting (perhaps only to me) factoid: 

MLB's ERA was 4.33 in 2023, up from 3.96 in 2022.  Most of that jump, it feels like, was due to Edwin missing the season, although his absence probably didn't raise 2023's overall ERA much at all.

In the year before the mound was raised, in 1968, MLB's ERA was 2.98.  Every pitcher was great that year.

ERAs in the first decade of the 20th century were very low.  

In 1904, baseball's ERA was 2.66, in large part because Jack Chesbro, who won 41 games that year, threw 454 innings with a 1.82 ERA.

Jack was quite the hitter-for-a-pitcher, too.  

He was career .197 in 1,100 at bats with 55 extra base hits and 82 RBIs, back (to repeat) in a decade where ERAs were VERY low, the lowest being 2.37 in 2008.

The stat that counts the most, though? Franchise winning %.

Yanks? .569

Mets?? .482

That differential is 14 more wins per year for the Bronxonians.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!