LOOKING OUTSIDE FOR STARTERS? TURN AROUND & LOOK IN-HOUSE.
The below are excerpts from an article I wrote on October 26, tweaked a bit, which article I recalled as we watched 41 Home Run Generation Machines like Lucas "Sky Wars" Giolito get $19 million per year for two years from the club whose Sox are Red - the Red Sox probably figured they'd offset that gargantuan outlay by saving on fireworks show costs.
What in-house options exist that might inexpensively work?
TYLOR MEGILL:
(In his) final eight (2023) starts?
His ERA? 3.00.
(That ERA over a full season would give you the 6th best starter ERA in baseball.)
45 innings, 15 runs. And he did win 9 this year.
Maybe those last 8 starts are telling us we are giving him insufficient credit for being a credible 2024 starter candidate (and give insufficient weight to how trying to pitch through injury (earlier in the season) negatively impacted his season ERA).
DAVID PETERSON:
Last 2 seasons, a gaudy 254 Ks in 217 innings.
A slightly higher K/9 rate over the last 2 seasons than…MAX SCHERZER?
Really? Yes, really.
In his last 15 games, Peterson’s 3.56 ERA is indicative of him figuring a lot out, leading to discontinuance of his early season poundings.
Can he retain those lessons learned in 2024 (assuming a full recovery from hip surgery)? Hope so.
JOEY LUCCHESI:
...Joey (in the) 2023 season...posted a...4-0, 2.89 record.
One thing I know: 4-0, 2.89 is GOOD.
If all our pitchers went 4-0, the Mets would have finished roughly 162-0.
Just call him Joey Perfect, given his perfect 4-0.
JOSE BUTTO:
He got in just nine Mets games, and had a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. Which is bad because…?
Can't think of why bad. Can you?
He was just 1-4, which in an organization with a mediocre offense and equally weak bullpen can happen when a guy pitches good.
After all, our back-to-back-Cy Young guy was just 21-17.
So, go ahead, panic like we did last off-season, and spend a ton on a high profile F.A. pitcher who'll get hurt like all the other heavily used and abused aces do.
Or, go cheap.
Me? Cheap, cheap, cheap.
I would just add strongly to the pen and make do with these 4 in-house starter guys in 2024; soon enough, Vasil and Hamel and Scott will be ready to "pitch in".
And...maybe you did not realize this, but starter ERAs tend to be higher than the bullpen's ERA.
Just 7 teams had starter ERAs below 4.00. Average MLB starter ERA? 4.47.
But 15 team's bullpen innings were below 4.00. Average MLB reliever ERA? 4.16.
So, keep that in mind, s'il vous plait.
So...if you see a starter ERA that looks a little high, that starter has plenty of MLB company.
C'mon, man....for starters, you can cut him some slack.
An interesting (perhaps only to me) factoid:
MLB's ERA was 4.33 in 2023, up from 3.96 in 2022. Most of that jump, it feels like, was due to Edwin missing the season, although his absence probably didn't raise 2023's overall ERA much at all.
In the year before the mound was raised, in 1968, MLB's ERA was 2.98. Every pitcher was great that year.
ERAs in the first decade of the 20th century were very low.
In 1904, baseball's ERA was 2.66, in large part because Jack Chesbro, who won 41 games that year, threw 454 innings with a 1.82 ERA.
Jack was quite the hitter-for-a-pitcher, too.
He was career .197 in 1,100 at bats with 55 extra base hits and 82 RBIs, back (to repeat) in a decade where ERAs were VERY low, the lowest being 2.37 in 2008.
The stat that counts the most, though? Franchise winning %.
Yanks? .569
Mets?? .482
That differential is 14 more wins per year for the Bronxonians.
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
18 comments:
If you add together the referred-to last 15 outings (starts and relief) of Peterson, the last 8 starts of Megill, and Joey of all of 2023, you get 148 innings, 52 earned runs, which equals a 3.16 ERA. League average ERA is 4.33. So are you over-castigating this trio? WHy would a 4.88, 41 HR Giolito have been preferable?
And over those last 15 Peterson outings (3.56 ERA), he fanned 67 in 56 innings. Which works dandily for me.
Another reason to be optimistic. Give me one more mid-level rotation guy plus a couple good BP studs and we'll be OK
Starting pitching is overrated and over paid. How many times do starters go 5 innings or less? Conventional wisdom says non elite starters should not go through a lineup the third time. How often do we see BP games? Even in the WS. The Opener is no longer a rarity.
Current rotation is Senga, Q, that Yank dud, and some other new guy
Exciting huh?
I still feed Tidwell has SP1-2 potential
Two more of the Binghamton 5 I rate back end potential
Sign one mid rotation piece
I hear the above comments. Me? I'd NOT sign another starter, and overload on real relievers.
I agree with your optimism, Tom. Knowing that we’re not going to compete with the Braves (or likely Phillies) this year, if we end up with 2 or 3 solid-to-good #3 types out of that group, we should be able to add an ace next winter in a deeper FA market and potentially have a plenty good rotation in ‘25. With the new pitching lab and a much improved development program, that shouldn’t require miracles.
Adam, also, by the end of 2024, we'll know a lot more about Tidwell, Vasil, Hamel, Scott and Stuart. Maybe even Joander. Not to mention Gilbert, Acuna, and Williams. And, of course, Baty, Vientos and Mauricio.
Lot easier to plan and transact next offseason, IMO.
It appears that about 840 innings on average come from a team's starters in a season, as compared to 600 from relievers. If a team loses on the road, they don't pitch a 9th inning, which reduces reliever innings somewhat.
So it seems the breakdown is roughly a little more than 5 innings from starters, the rest from relievers.
It ain't 1969 anymore.
Exactly. And no one in a decision making role in this FO has ever personally evaluated or worked with any of them. Next offseason, really probably starting at the ‘24 trade deadline, they’ll be in a far better position to make sound judgements and longer-term commitments.
Is it Happy New Years in Bangladesh yet? And do we have scouts in Bangladesh?
Tom,
You know that I fully agree with you about fortifying the bullpen. Games are mostly won in the 6th thru 9th innings. Yes, one cannot diminish the importance of starting pitching. But given changes in the game, I would bet that SPs who begin a game where their team wins (and do not necessarily obtain a “W”) do not pitch more than an average of 5+ innings. So, it is becoming more apparent that a team’s middle innings relievers, 8th inning relief pitchers and closers are becoming as or more important than a team’s SPs.
If a given team has a pair of shutdown relief pitchers (who can come in during the middle innings and squelch a rally) they will likely be successful if they possess productive and clutch hitters in their daily lineups (who vault their team ahead going into the final 2 innings).
I'll share that thought.
We have Reese scouting Malaysia, where it's now tomorrow already. 😁
Agree 💯 ! The game is changing. Openers are here to stay and will become more common. Strong bullpen wins championships. And at the very least can be used as trade pieces for prospects at the trade deadline.
Good points on the value of starters. And another interesting tidbit, both Cy Young winners in 2023 were on non-playoff teams, Cole from the Evil Empire and Snell on the Padres.
2nd half eras for returning #Mets SP:
Joey Lucchesi: 1.48
Kodai Senga: 2.58
Jose Quintana: 3.57
David Peterson: 3.65
Jose Butto: 3.90
Tylor Megill: 4.09
Add in Houser/Severino and continued dev of Hamel/Scott/Vasil it seems like the Mets åare in a reasonable position. Peterson has to come back healthy of course but I also expect the Mets sign one more SP too. Hopefully the bullpen is better than the mess from last year.
Dallas, the only sure repeat of those ERAs in 2024 will be Joey Lucchesi, who will win 20, post a 1.48 ERA, and win a trophy. The rest are a wait-and-see. I am pretty sure any ERA David Peterson will post in the first half will be based on limited innings.
I do expect Matt Allan to be a September call up - to Brooklyn, where he finished his only (2019) season.
Bill, Reese is finding prospect pitchers who have been clocked at 95 when throwing boa constrictors away.
Now he just has to convince them to throw baseballs.
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