9/26/25

MACK - MY FRIDAY OBSERVATIONS - Francisco Alvarez, What If?, Win Probability, Jonah Tong

 



Francisco Alvarez proves he can be that guy

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6657014/2025/09/24/francisco-alvarez-mets-cubs-home-run/

Throughout a season that featured more ups and downs than the world’s best roller coaster, the Mets could’ve used someone with more of an edge. An emotional player. Someone who speaks out. Someone who turns things up. How about the guy with “the best” tattooed across his neck? The guy playing with a broken pinky and bum thumb? The guy who stops and stares after hitting a critical home run when every game means everything for the Mets’ playoff hopes.

A couple of Alvarez’s teammates used the same word when describing the moment: electric.

“That’s who he is,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said. “We feed off that. Guys love it. As a team, we need that. We need that spark. We need that energy. For him to do it at that moment, we all felt it in the dugout. He’s special.”

 

Each MLB Team's Biggest 'What-if?' of 2025 Season

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25251158-each-mlb-teams-biggest-what-if-2025-season

New York Mets: What if their veteran starters performed better down the stretch?

If the Mets ultimately miss the postseason, many things will be second-guessed in New York. The biggest question will be whether the president of baseball operations, David Stearns, devoted enough resources to veteran starting pitching.

Sean Manaea was one of baseball's best pitchers in the second half of the 2024 season, ultimately earning him a three-year, $75 million deal in free agency. But Manaea didn't make his 2025 season debut until July, and now has a 5.40 ERA across 55 innings pitched.

David Peterson was an All-Star for the Mets in 2025, but has a 5.71 ERA since appearing in the Midsummer Classic.

Clay Holmes has a 4.70 ERA in the second half, as opposed to a 3.31 ERA in 19 first-half starts. That was predictable considering this is his first year as a starter, so he's likely gassed by this point in the season.

Kodai Senga accepted an option to Triple-A after posting a 6.56 ERA in eight post-All-Star Break starts. He's got a 5.40 ERA over his first three starts for Triple-A Syracuse.

It's great to have exciting young starters with Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat, but this time of the year, you need multiple veteran stoppers. Carlos Mendoza hasn't been able to lean on those types of arms.


Mets Analytics                  @MetsAnalytics

Most win probability added in a season by a reliever, Mets history:

445% Armando Benitez 2002

403% Randy Myers 1988

360% Edwin Díaz 2022

358% Edwin Díaz 2025

350% Jeurys Familia 2015

342% Billy Wagner 2006

338% Jesse Orosco 1983

330% Armando Benitez 2001

310% Armando Benitez 2000

306% Roger McDowell 1985

304% Seth Lugo 2019

 

Which of these aces will be MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Year?

https://www.mlb.com/news/milb-pitching-prospect-of-the-year-award-finalists-2025?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

Jonah Tong, RHP, Mets (No. 4/MLB No. 43)

Age: 22

Double-A: 8-5 W-L, 1.59 ERA, 20 G, 102 IP, 50 H, 2 HR, 44 BB, 162 K, .143 AVG, 0.92 WHIP

Triple-A: 2-0 W-L, 0.00 ERA, 2 G, 11 2/3 IP, 8 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 17 K, .190 AVG, 0.94 WHIP

Total: 10-5 W-L, 1.43 ERA, 22 G, 113 2/3 IP, 58 H, 2 HR, 47 BB, 179 K, .148 AVG, 0.92 WHIP

Tong moved from Canada to Georgia for his high school senior season in 2022 before turning pro and didn't do much in his pro debut the following year. He placed fifth in the Minor Leagues with a 34.2 percent strikeout rate in 2024, then became the first pitcher to lead the Minors in ERA and strikeouts in the same season since they restructured in 1963 into the system we know today. He also topped the Minors in average-against, strikeout rate (40.5 percent) and strikeout minus walk rate (29.9 percent).

Called up to the Mets in late August, Tong operates from an extremely deceptive delivery with an over-the-top arm slot and quality extension, leading to persistent Tim Lincecum comparisons. His mid-90s fastball has tremendous carry and pairs well with his down-breaking upper-70s curveball, while his fading mid-80s Vulcan changeup has become a weapon this season.


14 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

McLean was a machine.

Alvarez is amazing. He absolutely needs to try to be more careful to stay healthy. Be aggressive, not reckless. If he can do that, he will be great.

Diaz is great. He deserves 2 yr/$60 million.

Mack Ade said...

1. Yes, Nolan was great, but there is no reason Mendoz sould have kept him in for that last inning. He qualified for the win, his yearly pitch count was off the charts, and he had a five run win.

Mack Ade said...

I must have missed something Alvarez did

Mack Ade said...

I don't think Diaz will sign for two years. There will be at least one team that offers more than that

Tom Brennan said...

Alvarez has had a few big hits of late and is a ball of positive energy in dugout. Energizes others. Post All-Star, .286/.370/.598, also.

Mack Ade said...

Magic number

3

Mack Ade said...

IMO

this is probably the Alvarez we have been dealt with

Balls seem to find him

There is not enough ink being written about the fact that the Mets have the highest percentage of throwing out runners IN THE LEAGUE

Paul Articulates said...

If Alvy is the spark, then why did this team slog through the last 3 months in a funk? He has been in NY for at least part of that time. We need more energy to eliminate these Jeckyl and Hyde swings that have plagued the team in September.

Paul Articulates said...

McLean was like watching a video game last night. His breaking stuff is out of this world.

Mack Ade said...

Last year’s was Inglesias

TexasGusCC said...

Have to agree with Paul, Alvarez was here all along and Torrens played well when Ally wasn’t.

On Monday, Tim Britton offered some kind of stat that said that the Mets have had the most amount of bad luck and by other means they should have from five to eight more wins. Lies, Damn Lies, and Stats. We have watched enough games to know they deserve their plight.

Mack Ade said...

Britton must have wanted to make sure he gets his parking spot

Gary Seagren said...

Lets not forget the kid is TWENTY THREE! Lets give him a break. I did question Mendy again last night for not using Alvy at DH but we won so he gets a pass but go with the hot hand or is it just me. I saw their thinking of bringing up Dylan Ross ? Again why did it take this long?

Mack Ade said...

I'm going to believe the Ross promotion when I see him on the mound