Reese Kaplan -- A Pricey But Reasonable Alonso FA Alternative?

Another approach the Mets could take if Pete Alonso is not within the number of years nor AAV the Mets consider a reasonable contract extension is to find someone who might cost them just as much but theoretically could be a better overall player.  Throw in the fact it would be a big black eye to the crosstown rival New York Yankees and you will see how lefty slugging Cody Bellinger should at least be on the radar.

All Mets fans are intimately familiar with Bellinger for his many years as a star player for the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Premiering as a rookie back in 2017 as a 21 year old hitting .267 with 39 HRs and 97 RBIs along with 10 SBs.  That output was good enough for the National League Rookie of the Year award.

His sophomore year was a bit of a letdown.  The batting average of .260 was about the same but the run production took a tip to 26 HRs and 76 RBIs while the SBs increases to 14.  Those are certainly not numbers to be ashamed of but there were a letdown from that sensational rookie campaign.

In 2019 it all came together again for Bellinger when he hit 47 HRs, drove in 115 and included 15 stolen bases.  He also hit .305.  That season for the now 23 year old slugger was good enough to earn him the National League MVP award. 

In 2020 and 2021 combined between COVID and injuries he aggregated one year’s worth of ABs and the numbers weren’t reminiscent of his MVP year.  He clubbed 22 HRs, drove in 66 and stole 9 bases with a batting average at the Mendoza line.  Having seen the drop-off between 2017 and the VP year of 2019 this output was not unexpected but it did raise the question about his consistency at the plate.

Unfortunately the 2022 season was more of the same.  He only batted .210 while hitting 19 HRs and driving in 68 to go along with 14 SBs.  SAo now this was a pattern of three consecutive calendar years in which he under performed.

In 2023 he left the Dodgers as a free agent and headed to the Cubs.  For their money they received the good Bellinger.  He eclipsed the .300 mark in batting average once again,  hit 26 HRs and drove in 97 while stealing 20 bases.  His second year in Chicago was a step back again with the batting average dropping into the .260s and run production totals down. 

Chicago apparently had seen enough and after being told he planned to opt out after the 2024 season ended they traded Bellinnger to the Yankees for a minor league pitcher named Cody Poteet and gave them $5 million towards his contract. 

With the Yankees he’s rebounded nicely.  As of the first third of September he is hitting .276 with 28 HRs, 89 RBIs and 11 SBs.  His contract contains an opt out similar to what Pete Alonso has and indications are he will exercise it as his paycheck would dip a few million dollars if he remained in the Bronx.

So is Bellinger a worthy Alonso replacement?  Well, he’s had a Gold Glove for his defensive play and always had a great reputation as a fielder.  He has split time between the outfield and first base so he could help the Mets in either position.  His bat could tip the Mets a bit too much towards left handed hitting with Juan Soto, Bellinger, Brando Nimmo and Brett Baty swinging from that side while leaving Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez from the right side accompanied by switch hitter Francisco Lindor.  (For purposes of this 2026 projection we are not considering the great Jose Siri in the offensive equation). 

For their careers Bellinger has achieved over 30 WAR while Alonso is just over 22.  Alonso has more home runs in nearly 500 fewer at bats.  However, Bellinger is a more accomplished overall player whereas Alonso is pretty much a pure slugger without batting average, defense nor base running speed as a part of his game. 

From a money perspective Bellinger would likely cost a bit less since Alonso has crossed the $30 million threshold already and Bellinger has not.  Still, if Alonso leaves there are not many similarly priced options to help fill the hole.  Bellinger could be one of them.