The Great Mets Slugger Juan Soto
I came across a very interesting chart on a baseball Savant website. It provides all kinds of stats on any given player, including, in this case, Juan Soto, who remarkably smashed his 41st homer Wednesday night, in the Mets’ 6-4 loss.
The chart showed that over the course of his career had every single game that he played and played in Yankee stadium he would’ve hit less home runs that all of his games were played in City Field. But he would’ve had drastically greater numbers of Home runs in Cincinnati, as well as a few other parks. The chart shows that if all his career games had been played in Citi, he’d have 244 HRs, but 308 in Cincy, 25% more!
San Francisco, predictably, showed up as a park where he would’ve hit a lot less Home runs. How reliable these park-by-park estimated HR stats are, I don’t know, but feel free to give it a look for yourself (below).
As you all know, I’ve suggested that the Citi fences be brought in so that a superstar like Juan Soto will put up superstar numbers. The other night when he hit his 40th home run, he also hit a ball 404 feet that was caught. Had the park been, dimension-wise” where I have suggested they should be when you have a player who is superstar caliber, the centerfield fence would’ve been 401 feet and not 408, and if he hit the ball 404 feet that would’ve been another home run - something for Uncle Steve to think about.
If I were Steve, I want my superstar hitter to be putting up superstar numbers and if that means moving in the fences 5 to 7 feet, I would do it.
Also, if I were him, I would have my analysts similarly analyze each and every hitter that the Mets have would hit in these other parks. And then try to determine the optimum Citi outfield fence depth.
I still maintain that over the course of an entire season, Citi Field plays like a pitchers’ park, which means that hitters end up with fewer home runs over the course of a season at home than they would otherwise.
Click this link. Lots on that page, you’ll have to scroll down.
Soto and Alonso after the ASB, thru Tuesday? 31 HRs, 83 RBIs in 416 ABs.
Soto since May started? 38 HRs in 119 games, an amazing pace.
Pete? He may want to stay just to hit behind Soto. 119 RBIs with 10 games to go? Wow. And how of those RBIs have been driving in Soto?
Statcast data infers that Soto inspires Pete to higher levels. In 65 head-to-head games, where Alonso faced off against Soto pre-2025, Pete’s slash line was a Ruthian .321/.415/.671.
And, obviously, Pete is having a much better season with Soto in 2025 than he had in 2024.
Why would he want to leave that?
BTW, Baty/Vientos after ASB, through Tuesday?
19 HRs, 51 RBIs in 318 ABs. Finally arrived.
We lastly need Torrens back. In his last 38 at bats, 13 RBIs. Dang.
HOW SMART ARE GM’S, REALLY?
It is a point well worth looking into. Really? Yes, really.
Maybe they should embrace humility and ask us for input. I can keep a secret, and so can Mack.
Let’s look at but one example where advice was needed: back up center fielder.
This organization has brought in Keon Broxton; Cameron Maybin; Albert Almora; Jose Siri; Khalil Lee.
Let’s list their Mets career stats thru Sunday:
Broxton: 7 for 49, 4 walks, 22 Ks
Maybin: 1 for 28, 3 walks, 12 Ks
Almora: 6 for 52, 2 walks, 17 Ks
Siri: 2 for 29, 3 walks, 15Ks
Lee: 2 for 20, 0 walks, 13 Ks
That, friends, is an incomprehensible 18 for 178. (.101)
There were also acquired gems like Darin Ruf and Nick Plummer, who combined to go 14 for 95.
Travis Jankowski was 9 for 54, which is almost superstar production by GM standards.
Those eight Gems of the GM Kind?
41 for 327. No need for a calculator….that is .126.
We won’t even bring Tyrone Taylor into the discussion, although he has swung a disappointing bat in his 2 Mets seasons. .223, with a .288 OBP.
Meanwhile, former Mets farmhand Jake Mangum, a fine defender with good bat but limited power, finally makes the majors, of course not with the Mets, because some GM said, “Nah! Call up a good, cheap bat? Nah!”
In 366 at bats in his rookie season, Mangum is hitting .295 with 25 steals. The Mets never even tried him, despite being a .297 career minors hitter.
Seriously, how hard can a GM’s job be?
I’m pretty smart, in my own mind. I can do this!
Eenie meenie meiny mo…
BROOKLYN CHAMPIONSHIP!!
Kudos to the Cyclones. So many really good players were promoted to AA during the season, but they regrouped and won all 4 playoff games to secure the title. The title game was a 2-1 nail biter. 20 year old lefty Franklin Gomez went the first 4 scoreless innings.
Now, the question becomes, will any Brooklynites get promoted to AA for the AA playoffs? They may end quickly, as Binghamton won its first playoff game on Tuesday night, 3-1, behind the great Jon Santucci and others.
A championship for Brooklyn. I want one for Binghamton and Queens, too.
Lastly…
SYRACUSE WINS, BENGE SMACKS HIS 2ND AAA HOME RUN
11 comments:
Last night Francisco Alvarez sent a message to Tom: "The fences at Citi Field are just far enough". :)
(oh Gawd. He brought up fences...)
Paul, a few feet further in and no review would have been needed. But it barely made it. Timo Perez wishes Shea’s fences had been a foot closer, that much I know.
Of course, Call Raleigh seems to be having no issues in Seattle…but maybe he really is - their park has cost him a few this year, perhaps. 26 at home, 30 on the road.
Timo played everywhere, and started his career in Japan for 4 years before the Mets got him! He hit .357 in the minors that first year, and the Mets called him up late in the year.
18 year career. He hit 9 career HRs at home, 17 on the road. A career .294 hitter at all levels.
Just remembered for that one play.
Tom,
Baseball America has an excellent article ( subscription required) entitled "How Mets Built One Of The Most Productive Farm Systems" currently on-line.
Farm director, Andrew Christie, gives credit to Stearns hiring Andy Green as VP of player development, Director of Pitching, Eric Jagers ,and Director of hitting, Jeff Albert for their team's development.
In Baseball America's review of the Mets 2025 draft they praised the team's selection of RHP's Peter Kussow, Camden Lohman, Cam Tilley and Truman Pauley as prospects to watch in 2026.
D J, Mack can opine on the 2025 drafted pitchers. I usually get interested when they start pitching, as too many guys seem to have their arms blow up early on.
I am thrilled that they compiled better quality draft analysts and player developers. Especially with the drafts, I did a long series of articles a while back on the abysmal Mets for the first 15 years of this century. Then they started to get better when they drafted Pete. I implored them to draft power arms and power bats….my articles may not have been a factor in them going very much out of their usual M.O. and drafting Pete. But who knows.
I did an exhaustive series on past draft year disasters. I may re-publish them this winter. The lessons to be learned there were obvious. It seems like they are doing a better job learning. McLean, Tong, Benge? Great picks. Sproat hopefully.
The problem with bringing in the fences is that the Mets pitching staff would also be giving up more HR to their opponents
Norm, the Mets have hit 112 HRs at home, their pitchers have surrendered 74 homers at home. When you dominate the opposition, is there a way to further maximize the domination? Yes. Move them in. Why? The ball carries poorly there for a few months out of the 6 months. Right now, if the fences were simply moved to be pitcher/hitter neutral, Soto would probably have 47 homers and Pete 42. Fans would be delighted to see their big stars hitting like superstars. I know I would. Six more HRs and Soto would be a true MVP candidate. That, very briefly, is my perspective.
I am into advice today….with Garrett to IL, don’t be hero. To make oodles of $$, you need to stay healthy for seasons. Don’t blow up your elbow pushing it too hard. If you do, your career may end millions of dollars too early.
Timo did kind of look like Endy Chavez.
Paul, I wasn’t anywhere as near in the weeds as I am now. I had no idea Timo hit so well his first two minors seasons with the Mets. 665 at bats, he hit .358. He split those two seasons between the minors and the Mets.
Post a Comment