Reese Kaplan -- How Far Do the Mets Go to Retain Pete Alonso?

Well, it’s never too soon to consider what would be a fair extension contract offer to bring Pete Alonso back to his home at Citifield when this season ends and his opt-out contractual clause is invoked.  Coming off his strongest season is certainly going to make the Polar Bear a more attractive free agent than he was in the past off-season and as a result his price is going to be pretty high.

Now the question of how high a number will he command?  That’s the matter for media scribes, fans and every other type of know-it-all to project with a ready answer that it’s either too much or not enough to get the job done.  No one can rightfully identify what number it would take overall, but David Stearns and Steve Cohen need to identify and how hard their deadline will be.

First, let’s take a look at the numbers from Pete Alonso.  A typical season would produce a .252 batting average with 43 HRs and 115 RBIs.  Those are indeed rock solid numbers and while he’s not a great fielder nor base runner, he already is the greatest home run hitter in club history.  For that type of productivity he was paid $30 million for his 2025 season but the next year of the deal was for a dip to $24 million in 2026.  It’s no wonder he’ll explore the market once again.  In 2025 he has thus far hit .269 with 33 HRs and 113 RBIs.  With about 3 weeks to play he’ll exceed the standard for RBIs but might fall short on HRs.

It is fair to presume that Alonso is looking for two things.  First, he’s going to want a rate per year higher than the one he was paid for this season ending soon.  Second, he wants to be set for life with a deal of 5-7 years which will make him a mainstay in the middle of someone’s lineup until the waning days of his career.

For the Mets the AAV is likely in the $32-$36 million per year and the higher that number is then the shorter the term of that deal will be.  For example, 4 years at $36 million would give you Pete Alonso for years at ages 31, 32, 33 and 34 for an investment of $144 million.  If the contract was for 6 years then that AAV number is likely around $32 million.  That deal would be an even more expensive $192 million total taking Alonso through his age 36 season.

When you consider what the club is paying Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor who perform at higher levels then this range seems to be approximately where they should be.  If the Mets are willing to go to these types of numbers then the Alonso Mets legacy would continue to grow.  If you are Pete Alonso, would these kinds of offers be enough?  Obviously his agent whose compensation is based upon a percentage of total contract value is going to push him to seek the biggest overall.  The flip side is how well Alonso has been treated and embraced by his drafting team has treated him for the duration of his career.

How high would you go?