Reese Kaplan -- Will it End Badly or End Well?

Here we are during the final three games of the 2025 regular season for the Mets.  Going into the Marlins series the Mets held a razor thin one game lead over the Cincinnati Reds for the final wildcard berth.  While no one can predict what will happen by the time the Sunday game ends, the fact is that the control over the October postseason dream belongs entirely to the Mets. 

So let’s take a brief look at two different scenarios.  What happens if the Mets fold over the weekend while the Reds prosper?  How would they react to the season ending on a down note?

Then there is the other way to ascertain as well.  The Mets have had a wild season with two very prolonged months of slumps and yet still have the ability to eliminate the competition from entering the drive to a possible World Series appearance.  What happens if they hang on and make it to October baseball?

The Bad

You can easily recite things that have gone wrong for the Mets this season between health, poor performance and the wildly disappearing pitching staff.  The offense has been up and down, at times looking solid with four leading batters truly scalding the ball while other times it appears a two run deficit is entirely insurmountable.

On the health side, there’s not a whole lot to blame here.  Injuries happen and it seems that this franchise has gotten more than its fair share.  They’ve lost multiple starting pitchers and various position players for more of the season than they have played.  Yes, you can point to the coaching and development staff for potentially insufficient preparation for the players or you can write it off to bad luck. 

For the offense, the Mets have a lot of hard decisions to make if they win or lose this weekend.  They have Jeff McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna, Brett Baty and Mark Vientos competing for two positions (three if you count DH as an option).  Behind them you have Jett Williams not far from making his major league debut.

The other infield position to evaluate at length is first base.  Pete Alonso has been highly productive and remarkably healthy during his Mets career.  He’s going to want a long term deal at a high AAV.  The Mets need to decide if they missed out on the postseason whether it makes sense to invest $30+ million per year for the next 4+ years in Alonso or if they reinvest those funds by spreading them around to address multiple other needs.

The outfield isn’t a much clearer situation.  Brandon Nimmo and Juan Soto are the corner guys both in the midst of long term contracts.  There is no center fielder who deserves to start 150+ games in 2026 unless Carson Benge is somehow between an abbreviated AAA trial and winter ball can rally for an early arrival.  Starling Marte is a free agent at year’s end.  Jose Siri is already gone.  Cedric Mullins is a free agent.  Tyrone Taylor should be back but as a 4th outfielder, not as a starter. 

Then there is the pitching.  Even the seemingly invincible rookie Nolan McLean looked entirely human when he gave up five runs to the Cubs as the Mets closed out that series taking 2 out of 3.  Of course, he also whiffed 11 in 5+ innings of work, so it was not exactly a horrific outing. 

The rest of the staff is, well, a bit of a gamble.  You’ve seen good days from Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes and David Peterson in the past.  In the present, however, they have been vulnerable.  Throw in the other two rookies — Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat — and you have to scratch your head wondering how far the starting staff could take the Mets in their quest to close out the season.

The Good

If the Mets indeed make it to the playoffs there will be both celebrations and a plethora of huge sighs of relief when it appeared for much of June and August that the team wasn’t even going to play .500 ball.  How far they go is unpredictable because you don’t know which Mets team is going to take the field.

Going into 2026 with an October game appearance the Mets will continue to work through the who will stay and who will go debates.  Mark Vientos’ defense has him pegged as a DH or perhaps even a first baseman if the team loses out on Pete Alonso.  Brett Baty finished stronger than he started though his bottom of the order run production still runs behind that of Vientos.  The other infielders have been placeholders at best (including Jeff McNeil). 

The outfield is even worse and unless you’re banking on Carson Benge then the club is going to have to make trades or find free agents available to stand between Nimmo and Soto.  Right now there are no easy answers but it may be that some of the prospects may turn into trade bait to find a center fielder and a second backup outfielder.

As DH the Mets have tried and failed with players as poor as Daniel Vogelbach and as previously successful as J.D. Martinez yet no one really stuck at the slot.  Going forward will it be Vientos or do they need to shop around?

The pitching is the real Achilles heel for the club.  In the rotation you’re already without Tylor Megill and Frankie Montas for 2026.  The speed bumps experienced by Tong and Sproat suggest they may or may not be ready for prime time.  Christian Scott in in rehab throwing in September and should be ready when Opening Day arrives.  He pitched to a 3.19 minor league ERA before his major league efforts were nearly 1.5 runs worse. 

Then there are the returning veterans.  David Peterson has been on an express downhill slide for the second half of the year after being dominant in 2024.  The club really has to think long and hard about how much faith they have in him.

Clay Holmes started off very well but he too has scuffled a bit at year’s end which might be nothing more than arm fatigue.  They do have him back for next year but they will again need to evaluate whether he’s more valuable as a starter or a reliever.

Speaking of the bullpen, how deep are Steve Cohen’s pockets to retain opt-out eligible Edwin Diaz?  If he does leave doe it make Clay Holmes the closer by default?  No one else in the current pen who is not a free agent seems likely.  Some latecomers such as Dylan Ross could be interesting but have not yet been tested at the big league level.