11/6/18

Mack - Position By Position Analysis: 3B



Good morning.

Once again, there are my projections as to where players will start the 2019 season.


AAA Syracuse

          David Thompson -

                    AAA  (66 at bats)            .258/.329/.379/708    1-HR    3-E

          Cody Asche

                   AAA  (269 at bats)          .230/.315/.435/750/    10-HR   6-E

                   
AA Binghamton

          Will Toffey

                   AA  (134 at bats)             .254/.394/.433/827    4-HR   3-E
           
A+ St. Lucie

          Michael Paez

                   A+  (406 at bats)             .270/.340/.404/744    11-HR  22-E 
    
A Columbia 

          Jose Brizuela

                   A  (116 at bats)               .224/.272/.328/600    3-HR   8-E

          Brian Sharp

                   Rookie/Brooklyn (168 at bats)   .250/.347/.387/734    5-HR   6-E

Low-A Brooklyn

          Mark Vientos

                   Rookie/K-Port  (223 at bats)      .287/.389/.489/878     11-HR   13-E

          Chandler Avant

                   Rookie/Brooklyn  (134 at bats) .246/.318/.299/616     1-HR   3-E

Rookie Kingsport

          Chrisopher Pujols  
            
                  Rookie/GCL  (146 at bats)             .219/.292/.308/600    1-HR   17-E   

GCL

         Jaylen Palmer

                   GCL  (87 at bats)             .310/.394/.414/808    1-HR   4-E

          Fidel Almario

                   DSL  (169 at bats)           .268//346/.284/630     0-HR   5-E

Conclusion

1.    We have one more year of Todd Frazier at third in Queens.

2.    No matter how well Thompson comes back from his 2018 injury (broken hand?), he does not have the defensive talent to fight off the troika of McNeil-Gimenez-Rosario in 2019. He also only plays third (sometimes poorly) and, though there is no minor league player that can knock a run in better than him, there doesn’t seem to be a future on this team.

3.    The troika will command this position for at least three years.

4.    The first kink in that armor (can I use that expression?) probably will be McNeil (age), but that should happen when either Santana, Newton, or Vientos could be ready.

5.    Toffey is the wild card here. He will be ready by 2020. Like Thompson, he too only plays third but could emerge as the 2020 third baseman or a serious trade chip down the line.

6.    And then there’s Vientos, who may have the most upside with a bat in his hand. Problem is he can’t play third at a major league level. Another trade chip, probably to an AL team.

Rating: 

          A lot of depth here. 

          Vientos is your red prospect. Toffey your blue.

          B


         

12 comments:

Mack Ade said...

I'm sorry.

The colors of the players are screwed up.

The only red prospect is Vientos.

Tom Brennan said...

I like Toffey for AAA, and Paez for AA. I also definitely want Giant is in full season ball in Columbia. Everyone else is secondary to them.

Tom Brennan said...

Not Giant, oh tablet, but Vientos in Columbia, definitely.

By comparison, Gimenez went straight from the DSL to Columbia, a skip of 3 levels. To get to Columbia, Vientos only needs to skip one level. I definitely skip him one level to get him into a season 50 games longer than Brooklyn.

TexasGusCC said...

If Frazier is the starting third baseman, than BVW was a fraud. Frazier is a ball and chain on the lineup and has been for years. That’s why the Yankees didn’t even make an offer to him; they were afraid he’d take it.

Thompson can start at third base in Syracuse, but Toffey should be there by June.

Wasn’t McNeil always a third baseman but switched to second a week before call up? Why not put him back in his position, is it the power?

Where’s Gregory Guerrero in all this?

Tom Brennan said...

Texas, Greg Guerrero, as you probably know, missed a lot of 2017 and all of 2018. Seems like David Wright, only 15 years sooner. A suspect until he proves he is a prospect.

you don't like 210 hitting Fraziers? Joe Frazier hit well at that weight LOL

Tom Brennan said...

I hope Vientos will be better than a seemingly comparable fella, Wilmer Flores, but Flores played full season ball in the year he turned 18 in mid-season. Vientos will be 19 all next season - gotta go to Columbia. I frankly hope he starts there and gets promoted to St Lucie mid season.

I want him in the majors in 2.5 to 3 seasons - that is mid 2021 (age 21) to 2022 (age 22).

Vientos showing a lot more power early in his career than Flores.

TexasGusCC said...

Tom, good job on comparing The Fraziers.

I was actually surprised when I reread Guerrero’s scouting report last week or so. Where has that talent all gone? The first year he wasn’t ready for stateside, unfortunately. Last year he got hurt. Still young though and very toolsy, just lacks speed. More of a masher than a speedster. He was a high dollar signing for a reason.

Mack Ade said...

Texas -

I was told he was worth every bonus dollar spent when he signed.

Then, like many other 16-year old guppies, things just didn't develop.

In the islands, 80% of the top 'bat' talent play shortstop. It started when every kid grew up wanting to be A-Rod. Local coaches always put their top defensive talent at short.

Rememeber there were three signed that year... Guerrero ($1.5mil), Gimenez ($1.2mil), and Newton ($50K).

Four more the previous year... Kenny Hernandez ($1mil), Yoel Romero ($300K), Fermin ($250K), and Morena ($50K).

Hernandez looks like a bust too. Gimenez doesn't.

This is how you do it.

Tom Brennan said...

Vlad Guerrero, meanwhile, has been up about 70 times, fanned just 3 times, and is hitting .393. Machine. No homers, though.

Mike Freire said...

Good Morning, Mack.

Nice work......I also think that third base is in capable hands in the short term (Frazier), along with some nice depth
and the possibility of moving someone from another spot.

Frazier in 2019, Rosario starting in 2020 (just my thoughts) and Vientos when he is ready?

As an aside, I was not aware that VIentos struggled defensively? Makes you wonder what the scouts in
our system are looking for? Defense is extremely important, especially in the playoffs (i.e. 2015 WS loss to KC).

Mack Ade said...

Mike -

Thanks for the compliment.

As I said, I think Vientos will, at best, be in the wings behind McNeil/Rosario/Gimenez.

TexasGusCC said...

Mack, when you say he was "worth every penny when he signed", does that mean he isn't any more? Or does that mean that he has the talent and he needs to bring it out?