Tom Brennan - ABILITY AND DURABILITY
Two of the many factors that any GM, including our brand spanking new one, has to consider are players':
Ability
and
Durability.
Mets fans know "lack of durability" all too well - e.g.:
David Wright: Ability HIGH, Durability NON-EXISTENT. I hear he is healthy enough to sign his paychecks without stretching.
Yoenis Cespedes: Ability HIGH, Durability POOR. We thought we were signing Cespedes and got Achilles instead.
Anthony Swarzak: Ability MODERATE, Durability LARGELY MISSING.
And on and on.
I'm not mentally durable enough to add any more examples.
So, let's move on to starters - our 5 starters finished the year as well as any starting rotation from early August onward.
Jake deGrom: Ability OFF THE CHARTS, Durability MOSTLY EXCELLENT SINCE HIS ROOKIE DEBUT. As in 32 starts in 2018, most of the "out of this world" variety.
He had to get his ulnar nerve relocated in 2016, but it turned out to be mostly scary, but minor in impact.
Noah Syndergaard: Ability FREAKY, Durability NOT SO GOOD IN 2017 AND 2018. The lat tear in 2017, other more minor maladies in 2018.
Just 32 starts in 2 seasons. about 50%. Will you get a full season, or 75% of one, in 2019 out of Thor? I dunno, ask him.
Zach Wheeler: Ability SUDDENLY ELITE, Durability ABYSMAL PRIOR TO 2018 BUT QUITE GOOD IN 2018.
Are his fragile days fully in his rear view mirror? I dunno, I sure hope so, ask him.
Steve Matz: Ability ABOVE AVERAGE, Durability VERY SUSPECT. Matz is the kind of player you always hope has seen his last injury, but somehow another one seems to show up.
That explains just 71 starts in 3 1/2 seasons, or just 60% availability since his debut. Injuries no more? I dunno, ask him.
Jason Vargas: Ability AVERAGE AT BEST, Durability NORMALLY QUITE GOOD. Jason, the clear # 5 out of these 5 Goodfellas, started 32 games in 2017, and just 20 in 2018 due to the freakish hamate injury.
My guess is he does not throw hard enough to hurt himself in 2019. He's still got one more hamate bone, though...uh oh!
Simply put, if we get 140 or more starts with this quintet, we'll have a heckuva season. But that would exceed their historical production levels.
140 strikes me as wishful thinking.
140 strikes me as wishful thinking.
Vegas might put their over/under at 130 starts.
But let's say: 32 deGrom, 30 Wheeler, 28 Thor, 26 Matz, 30 Vargas - that's 146!
But let's say: 32 deGrom, 30 Wheeler, 28 Thor, 26 Matz, 30 Vargas - that's 146!
We do have Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman at the ready to pick up slack - but given the 5 starters' historical lack of durability, those 2 bullpen arms may end up starting a bunch of games, so the Mets have to, have to, HAVE TO fix the bullpen in a big way. (BTW, the # 47 means what with regard to these 2 capable guys?
It is the sum of their late draft rounds - Lugo in round # 34 and Rob in round # 13 - the Mets sure struck gold with these two.)
If I were the GM (please sing heartily to the tune of IF I WERE A RICH MAN), I'd keep those 5 starters and hope mightily for their good health until Justin Dunn and David Peterson are ready. I target Dunn at mid-season, and Peterson by September 2018, but both are pretty iffy as to whether they'll be ready by those target dates.
Since "I dunno", how would you, the real GM, approach this?
8 comments:
Is Jenrry Mejia groomed for starting or relieving? He can probably hide his syringes better in the bullpen than in the dugout.
Mejia has given up baseball and will instead be appearing in a new TV Series called the Incredible Hulk is a Mets Fan. He won't pitch, but will hit the ball a country mile. He will also take out Chase Utley at 2B as payback for Ruben Tejada.
Maybe it is just me, but when I saw the title of your post I suddenly started hearing the song "Ebony and Ivory" in the background.....weird, I know.
Anyway, you raise an excellent point.
It is why a roster that has quality depth is so valuable.....not just star players, but true depth that can be relied upon over the course of a full season.
In that vein, we need 7 or 8 guys that can start games to cover the 162 plus game schedule, IMO.
Mike that is why Lugo and Gsellman are so valuable as swing pitchers - the simple fact that they might need 7 or 8 starters.
This team really has to stock at least one bullpen pitcher more than a razor thin quality group...because guys do get hurt, and then the team descends into bullpen hell. Look at how many innings were thrown by guys in the pen last season for the Mets with ERAs over 5.00 - a staggering # of innings. A winning team cannot trot out garbage and hope for the playoffs.
As constructed, if two rotation guys went down and Lugo and Gsellman were pulled into the rotation for an extended period, the pen would again be one of the two or 3 worst in baseball. A winning team can't go there.
Well, we know how Sandy Alderson felt about the bullpen -- kind of like how he felt about defense and contact hitters.
Bring back Bart? 😏
Jenrry has given up baseball to try to be the next Lou Ferigno in the Hulk film series. He can hit the ball a country mile, I hear.
Jake got the ultimate award for his 2018 ability AND durability, especially in his spirit, as he stayed strong while winning just 10 of 32 starts (and just 6 of 26 in the middle). EXTEND HIM. NOW.
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