Reese Kaplan -- Is There a Method to the Madness?

A lot has been written over the past several days about the prospect of trading Noah Syndergaard (Thor, to his many fans).  The vast majority of people are proclaiming loudly, “Hell no!” at this hypothetical move as they are enamored of his talent, his persona and the fact he’s one of the few things that will make you want to watch an anemic Mets team even late in the season.

Many years ago the Mets faced a similar situation when dealing away a fellow you may have heard of by the name Tom something or other.  Of course, circumstances were different and he was sent packing because he had the temerity to ask to be paid at least as much as journeyman Wayne Garland.  This time it was the front office and ownership that said, “Hell no!” and off to Cincinnati he went.  In exchange the Mets received the reigning co-Rookie of the Year, Pat Zachry, gloveman extraordinaire Doug Flynn, and a couple of wildcard prospects in Steve Henderson and Dan Norman.  Norman had 17 HRs, 63 RBIs, 33 SBs and a .273 AVG in AA, so he looked like a great get.  Henderson looked even better with 17 HRs, 61 RBIs, 44 SBs and a .312 AVG in AA.  So that’s the package – two major leaguers, two prospects and an outcome most everyone would agree was not equitable value. 

Dealing Syndergaard for a straight barrel full of prospects doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense on the surface because he’s not yet making major money.  It’s not a salary dump, so those prospects in questions had better be the cream of the crop and not the next Dan Norman. 

It’s been said that they are after major league talent in exchange for Thor.  That is not a guarantee of success either as we can cite an All Star Team worth of “talent” who forgot how to hit or pitch once they got to New York.  Let’s see, there’s Mo Vaughn, Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar, Jim Fregosi, Jason Bay, George Foster, Jason Vargas, AJ Ramos and others who immediately come to mind. 

On the other side, there’s no guarantee Thor will ever deliver a full season’s worth of starts, either.  In his career that has included parts of 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018 he’s been in 87 games.  At this point in his career that total should be closer to 125.  He’s had lat issues, finger ligament problems and blisters which have curtailed his output.  He’s not yet had Tommy John surgery, so some feel it’s only a matter of time until he’ll need the 12-18 months off to recover from it. 

Some speculate the wild idea of trading Syndergaard is part of a larger overall plan to address the club’s other needs.  Brodie Van Wagenen inherited a fairly lackluster minor league system which is much deeper at the lower levels than in the upper ones.  Consequently there are few who can be projected to provide near-term help to the big club.  If you loaded up on prospects from other organizations, then perhaps you could then turn around and trade some of them to obtain needed pieces at catcher, centerfield and the bullpen. 

If this is the plan, then you should also open the door to consideration for either Jacob deGrom or Zack Wheeler as part of any prospective trade.  Assuming you’re not going to do a 100% teardown and rebuild, one of these three starters might need to be shopped in order to bolster multiple other needs on the club.  The question is why Thor?  He’s younger than deGrom, Wheeler makes more money and is coming off a monster year.  deGrom is due to cash in (deservedly so) for his performance, but at the same time Cy Young Award winners don’t grow on trees.  Maybe he should be dangled as well to gauge who would bring back the greater haul. 

We’ve been hearing about the big five starters for almost as long as any of us can remember.  That dream died when Matt Harvey took his own flight to Cincy.  Just as the mantra in football has always been that defense wins championships, many proclaim it’s pitching that wins championships in baseball. 

I won’t argue the value and appeal of a strong pitching staff, but I for one am totally fed up with the type of offense when behind by two runs you pretty much know it’s a lost cause.  Most of the post-season teams got there on the backs of young hitters like Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Cody Bellinger, Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies.  They didn’t get there starting people like Kevin Plawecki, Jose Reyes, Adrian Gonzalez, Austin Jackson or Jose Bautista.

I’m not necessarily saying that trading one of the starting pitchers is the right thing to do, but the old Einstein definition of insanity certainly comes to mind with respect to doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.  Maybe it’s time to give up that dream of the big five (now big four plus, ugh, Jason Vargas), and think about scoring some runs.  

In the interim other GMs are already busy with Kurt Suzuki already off the board and James Paxton having been traded.  BVW is doing a good Sandy Alderson impression thus far, waiting for the market to come to him and scrap heap picking.  As we've seen, that’s not a recipe for success.