Reese Kaplan -- So if BVW Wants to Make a Splash...

Over the weekend a few articles arose that posed a hypothetical way for the Mets to fill their need for a right handed slugger while avoiding the long term commitment of a Manny Machado.  Apparently the Chicago Cubs suggested (then walked back) the prospect of putting third baseman Kris Bryant up on the trading block.  If Brodie Van Wagenen wants to make a splash, that would surely qualify.

As a refresher, Kris Bryant broke into the league as a rookie artificially held back (see, Mr. Alonso?  You’re in good company!)  He did earn the Rookie of the Year award based upon a stat line of .275/26/99 in 559 ABs.  About the only negative was he led the league in strikeouts with 199 whiffs.

Lest you fear he would be in for a sophomore slump, he followed that up in 2016 with 39 home runs, 102 RBIs and a .292 AVG while cutting his strikeouts by 25%.  That was good enough to win the National League MVP en route to the Cubs’ World Series victory by a margin of 4-3 over the Cleveland Indians, breaking a drought that’s lasted since 1945.  (See Mets fans?  It COULD be worse.)

The following year Bryant had a bit of a downturn based upon his lofty output the first two seasons in the league.  His average was a still impressive .295 and the strikeouts plummeted to 128 for the season while walks increased.  The power was there with 29 home runs but he drove in a somewhat pedestrian 73 runs.

In 2018 he had a shoulder injury that limited him to 389 ABs with just 13 HRs and 52 RBIs while hitting .272.  He was offered a contract extension but turned it down, hence the discussion about him being made available in trade.  The 6’5” Bryant is 27 years old and earned $10.825 million mark in his first year of arbitration eligibility.  He has two more years of arbitration before becoming a free agent for the first time.

With a club blessed with the offense from players like Javier Baez, Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell and Ben Zobrist, some figure they can afford to let someone else take the risk that his shoulder injury is not long term.  Club President Theo Epstein said that there are no untouchables.

How would he fit in with the Mets?  Well, given his subpar 2018 his salary will likely not move the needle very much.  Figure $12.5 million.  He only plays third base, so that supplants Todd Frazier there.  I don’t think anyone would shed any tears over that change.  He’s right handed and fills the power void left by Yoenis Cespedes.  Moving Frazier across the diamond allows them to delay Mr. Alonso with a good cover story until they find someone gullible enough to take the Toddfather in trade.

The bigger question is what it would take to get him.  For all of the people who shot down combinations and permutations of the group including Alonso, Andres Gimenez, Amed Rosario, Justin Dunn, David Peterson and others in the attempt to get the Marlins to bite on a J.T. Realmuto deal, as good as the young catcher is, he doesn’t have the offensive pedigree of Bryant.  If it’s not going to get the Marlins salivating, the Cubs for some combination of that package may not even take the call.

However, it’s been suggested you start the deal with Noah Syndergaard going to the Windy City.  He coincidentally has two remaining arbitration eligible seasons left.  He too has missed time and seen downturns in production due to physical maladies.  However, he’s got the ace-of-the-rotation stuff and larger than life gate appeal that it might be a decent starting point.  You might have to throw in a low level prospect with high upside to get it done (much like the Syndergaard was when the Mets obtained him in the R.A. Dickey trade). 

The question is whether or not it makes sense and if it improves each club.  For the Cubs, I would think it’s a resounding yes as 4 of their 5 starters had ERAs north of 4.00.  Most are in the latter stages of their career.  They have offense to spare (despite last season’s fall disappearing act). 

Forget for a moment that you are a Mets fan and simply think about the net positive from gaining Kris Bryant.  If he could provide 30/100 while playing 3B and hitting in the .280 range from the right side, how much would that help?  There’s no guarantee he’d be here for more than two years, but that’s also true of Noah Syndergaard.  (And remember that over 4 seasons Syndergaard has only appeared in 87 games – about 22 per season). 

Now right away people are going to say, “How are you going to replace Thor in the rotation?”  That’s an excellent question. There’s a new sheriff in town who hopefully is not looking at the likes of Jason Vargas but who instead might look to fortify the pen with 2-3 quality arms.  That then would free up a Seth Lugo to take Thor’s spot starting every 5^th day.  Is he Syndergaard?  No, of course not.  But he’s certainly delivered quality. 

Another option would be to find a starter in the free agent pool.  I’m not thinking of the Patrick Corbin ilk, but more of a mid-tier starter with a track record of quality and health.  So again, would the net gain of a reduced quality starter and a quantum advance in offense be better than keeping Syndergaard and Frazier?