Reese Kaplan -- Getting Hosed by the Firemen in 2018

While the media seems to be obsessing over the 2019 Mets catcher position and to a lesser extent improving the production out of 3^rd base, if you polled any number of people about what the biggest need to fill the likely answer would be the bullpen.  How many times did we see the middle relievers cough up run after run which renders the formidable starting rotation somewhat superfluous?  Add in the fact that once Jeurys Familia was sent packing for international bonus pool money and a couple of sore-armed minor leaguers, well, you can see that they were destined to be more firestarters than firemen.

The big fish available via free agency – Craig Kimbrel and Zach Britton – are likely to obtain long term lucrative deals which they rightfully deserve.  Brodie Van Wagenen has said both that the role of the traditional closer is something that may or may not exist for the Mets, and that he intends to add as many as three arms.  Now my interpretation of that is don’t expect the Mets to be in on the big two, but the next tier down may be a possibility.

Who’s in that tier?  Well, Jeurys Familia, Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria have all logged many innings as closers.  They’re all highly credible pitchers who are likely in the $10 million per year or so mold.  The older Soria might be obtainable on a shorter deal.   Andrew Miller will probably be getting a bit less due to health concerns.  David Robertson has been both a setup guy and closer but is already making $13 . million. 

After that you have the guys who were closers at one time in their careers and who now serve more in the setup or middle reliever roles.  There is some surprising quality here, including familiar faces like Tyler Clippard (who only earned $1.5 million for Toronto as he approaches the end of his career), the get-an-airsick-bag-ready choice of Oliver Perez who has made himself into a credible reliever, Brad Brach, Ryan Madsen, Sergio Romo, Tony Sipp, Nick Vincent (who?  I had to look him up, too – 3.17 for his career and earned $2.75 million last season), Adam Warren and folks of that ilk.

There are a few hot names out there that I think will be highly risky investments at fairly big dollars.  Former Indians hurler Cody Allen was earning over $10 million and stunk it up in 2018.  His career ERA is 2.98 and he may relish a reunion with his former pitching coach but he’s not going to be cheap.  Adam Ottavino had a great year (2.43 ERA and 0.991 WHIP) and will look to cash in on it, but his career track record is not all that encouraging.  I’d hate to repeat the one-year-wonder mistake of Anthony Swarzak. 

Given the Mets’ recent injury history, you’d think they’d run scared of anyone with even a hint of health issues, but there are bargains to be found there if you’re willing to take a chance.  The Nationals pounced first this off-season by grabbing former Cardinals’ closer Trevor Rosenthal for a mere $7 million at age 28 who has a career ERA under 3.00 and put together back-to-back 40+ save seasons. 

That’s water under the bridge, but a former Nats pitcher is in a similar situation – Drew Storen.  He went on the DL in 2017 for Tommy John Surgery and missed all of 2018.  He’s got a career 3.45 ERA and also has a 40+ save season under his belt.  Methinks his price is going to be low enough to make the Wilpons salivate considering the Reds were only paying him $3 million in 2017. 

As it stands now, you would figure (barring trades) that the Mets bullpen will include for sure Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Anthony Swarzak.  Drew Smith and Daniel Zamora are probably leading contenders for roles there as well.  Jenrry Mejia is an option, too.  Some, like Tyler Bashlor, will likely begin the season in AAA to refine their game a bit.  There are most definitely openings to be had from the free agent class or via trade (assuming BVW is not as afraid of that avenue other than salary dumps as was his predecessor). 

Me?  I’m all for fixing the pen.  It would open up Seth Lugo as a starter (or even trade candidate) which could then help address other needs.  If you got 2-3 of those mid-tier types it wouldn’t break the bank and it spreads the risk around as compared to sinking all of your money into someone a sharp-breaking slider away from TJS.