2021 Top Draft Targets - Ian Moller, Irving Carter, Benny Montgomery, Cade Cavalli, Jackson Wolf

  

                            Ian Moller

 

          C 6-1 201 Wahlert HS (IA)   -  Projected 1st/2nd round

 

Diamond Digest -  

 

7) Ian Moller, C, Wahlert HS (IA)

 

Moller really popped at the Perfect Game National Showcase, where his power and solid barrel skills played well. He has a quiet setup and load before unleashing a beautiful swing with bat speed and beautiful upward bat path. That bat path is perfect for today’s game in which hitting the ball in the air is so important. He generates line drives and fly balls, and his fantastic rotational ability gives him his big time power potential. Moller also generates good hip/torso separation at foot strike. All of these elements make him a threat to hit 20 homers a year. Defensively, he projects to stick behind the plate. He is an athletic catcher who moves well behind the plate, especially laterally. That lateral movement helps him when ball blocking, which is an area where he excels. His quick feet have given him quick pop times and he has good raw arm strength, allowing him to be a force in the run game. He folds up nicely behind the plate and shows solid flexibility, and he has shown the ability to be a calming presence behind the plate. Moller is impressive physically, possessing a strong frame with good lower-half strength that can definitely withstand the rigors of catching. Moller is a really solid all-around player whose only negative are some occasional swing-and-miss-issues and an extremely risky prep catcher demographic to which he belongs, but he has the tools to overcome the odds against players like him. Moller is committed to LSU. 

 

PG -

Ian Moller is a 2021 C/3B with a 6-1 201 lb. frame from Dubuque, IA who attends Wahlert. Strong athletic build, pretty mature physically. Right handed hitter, hits from a narrow stance with a wrapped barrel load, has rhythm to his load and swing, calm overall approach, creates very good raw bat speed and easy lift and jump, ball comes off the barrel hard, always seems to be timed and on the ball in games, very high level offensive ceiling for his position. 7.22 runner, athletic actions behind the plate defensively, blocks and receives cleanly and with confidence, very strong arm with a clean release and good accuracy. Highest level catching prospect who would be a top prospect at many positions on the field. 

 

Mack observation -

 

Moller is one of three catchers that project to be picked in the first two rounds. Ranking wise, I have this bat first batteryman ranked third of three and I see him somewhere in the mid-second area.

 

I am going to pass on him. If I can’t get Henry Davis, I will go RHP in the first two rounds.

  

 

                Irving Carter

 

 RHP 6-4 200 Home Schooled - Boynton Beach (FL) - projected 3rd/4th round

 

Talking Chop -

 

Irving Carter, RHP, Florida HS

The final guy in my second tier of prep arms is 6’4, 200 pound Irving Carter from Florida. The Miami commit is a projectable and athletic pitcher with a natural feel for pitching. Carter tops out at 94 MPH with his fastball, though there is more in the tank once he fills out, and adds in a plus slider and a high quality change that can get swings and misses. Carter’s stuff is nice, and the athleticism and projection should mean plenty more to come, but that isn’t the main reason he ranks so high. Carter knows how to keep hitters off balance in a way few high school arms can, changing his speeds and the timing, and has some deception in his delivery. Carter’s feel for pitching shouldn’t surprise anyone, as he started his high school’s state championship game...as an 8th grader! So his experience in big games has given him a level of extra confidence on the mound. Carter also has at least above average command, giving him pretty much everything you could ask for in a prep arm. Should he gain some velocity, you can expect him to push his way higher on this list of rankings.

 

PG  - Irving Carter is a 2021 RHP/1B with a 6-3 200 lb. frame from Boynton Beach, FL who is home schooled. Big and strong athletic build, pretty mature physically. Turn and throw delivery with good direction to the plate, high 3/4's arm slot, will vary his wind up pace and throw in hesitations, arm is fast and loose. Fastball topped out at 92 mph, mostly straight and gets on hitters quickly. Breaking ball showed the potential to be a plus swing/miss pitch, has power and depth with sharp biting action at times, tunnels his breaking ball well with his fastball. Developing change up that he tended to cup in back. Threw strikes with all three pitches and has an idea how to work the zone and when to challenge.

  

Mack observation -

 

I would consider Carter if he was still around in the fourth round.

 

Not enough velo to be considered higher.

 

 

            Benny Montgomery

 

OF 6-4 200 Red Land HS (PA) - Projected : 3rd day pick

 

PG -

 

Benny Montgomery is a 2021 OF/RHP with a 6-4 200 lb. frame from Lewisberry, PA who attends Red Land. Long, lanky athletic build with plenty of physical projection remaining. Outstanding runner, 6.32 in the sixty, speed really impacts the game both offensively and defensively. Huge arm strength in the outfield, big whip to his arm, lower half mechanics are inconsistent but time and repetitions will address that, highest level defensive potential. Right handed hitter, starts with a high hand set and a quick hitch into his swing, long and loose swing with bat speed, gets the barrel out front and creates big jump with lots of back spin, strong enough to shrink the field with his line drive carry. Elite level athlete with growing baseball skills 

 

Diamond Digest -  

 

15) Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)

 

If you’re a fan of extremely loud tools, then Montgomery is your guy. He throws the ball extremely hard, he is one of the fastest runners in the entire draft, and his bat speed leads to fantastic exit velocities. Montgomery is such an exciting player to watch, but for him to reach his sky-high potential, he has to prove his unorthodox hitting mechanics can play against top-tier pitching. His swing is quirky and more disconnected than a more traditional swing, and there are shades of Hunter Pence in his swing. Montgomery has a leg kick and a hitch in his load (he brings his hands down and then quickly back up again before he swings). However, his bat gets through the zone quickly and he finds the barrel well. What remains to be seen is if Montgomery can generate the same type of results with his swing against higher velocity arms, but up until this point he has played well at every major showcase event. He has huge raw power potential and if he can tap into it in games on a consistent basis, he has the potential to hit 20-25 homers every season. Montgomery stands out defensively, too, with his top-of-the scale speed (he has been clocked 6.32 in the 60-yard dash) he can cover a ton of ground in CF, and his rocket of an arm plays well for the position. There isn’t much game footage of him on defense, but it’s hard to imagine his speed and athleticism not playing well in the outfield. Overall Montgomery is a guy who can be a perennial all-star if he lands with an organization that can add some smoothness to his swing. He is the definition of a potential 5-tool player. Montgomery is committed to Virginia. 

 

MLB -

 

Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Pa.) -- No. 11 on our Top 15 high school list, Montgomery continues to show incredible athleticism and the ability to use his tools against good competition. He went 3-for-3 with a pair of RBIs and stolen bases, showing his strong, wiry power. The Virginia recruit is a bit unorthodox, with a little Hunter Pence in him. 

 

Mack observation -

 

Great arm. Even greater speed. Past that, Montgomery still needs some work.

 

This guys needs to co to Virginia and hone his game.

 

Barely makes my top 200 list. 

 

 

                            Cade Cavalli

 

           RHP 6-4 226 Oklahoma - Projected: 2nd day pick 

 

Reds Minor Leagues -

 

There are two sides to the scouting report for Cade Cavalli. The first side is the pure stuff, which stands out among a strong draft class. His fastball sits in the mid-90’s and touches 98. His slider is a plus pitch in the upper 80’s and will get as high as 90. And he’s got another above-average breaking ball with his curve in the low 80’s. There’s also a solid change up in the mix, too. Toss in that he’s also 6′ 4″, athletic, and has good mechanics, and you’ve got a scouts dream for a starting pitcher.

 

But yeah, there are two sides to this one. His performance has been lackluster at times as he’s struggled to throw strikes, and despite strong velocity, hitters seem to see the fastball very well and hit it. He’s also got a history with some injuries, including back issues that cost him time in both high school and early in college. 

 

Medium -

 

3. Cade Cavalli — Oklahoma

 

While I think that Cavalli was better than he was in 2019, he still presents a confusing and tangled statistical profile. His ERA of 4.18 tells one story and his FIP of 1.88 tells another. I’m choosing to believe that Cavalli’s true talent level is closer to his 1.88 FIP than the 4.18 ERA for a variety of reasons. One: he had an extremely high BABIP of 0.460, which inflated his H/9, WHIP, wOBA, and batting average allowed. Two: while a high BABIP can be a pitcher’s fault, 0.460 is the highest BABIP in the conference. The two guys behind Cavalli? His teammates, Wyatt Olds and Levi Prater, who also had better FIPs than ERAs. All this tells me that the OU defense was BAD in 2020 because there’s no other reasonable explanation.

 

Another reason I believe in Cavalli’s 1.88 FIP is his peripherals, notably his BB/9 and K/9. His K/9 of 14.07 was the second-highest in the conference and his BB/9 of 1.90 was one of the best with his workload. He got better with pitch placement, command, and probably saw a velocity uptick, but the Sooners terrible defense hurt his surface-level stats.

  

2020 stat line - 1-2, 4.18, 1.27, 23.2-IP, 37-K 

 

Mack observation -

 

There isn’t a pitcher in this game that needs a super duper 2021 season more than Cavalli. The problem is he will be a senior which reduces the chance he will receive a decent signing bonus.

 

I put him in the round 6-10 range. 

 

 

                            Jackson Wolf

 

               LHP 6-7 205 West Virginia - Projection: 2nd day pick

 

Medium -

 

7. Jackson Wolf — West Virginia

 

Jackson Wolf was a below-average starter for the Mountaineers in 2019, yet transformed into an excellent pitcher in 2020. Standing 6’7”, 205 lbs, he’s a tall lefty, but had trouble parlaying that into success prior to 2020. But in his 25.2 IP in 2020, Wolf was one of the best pitchers in the conference, with a FIP of 1.76. He allowed a WHIP of 0.74, thanks to his phenomenal 4.91 H/9 and 1.75 BB/9, both huge improvements from his 2019 numbers.

 

He also started to miss bats more often in 2020, posting a K/9 of 9.47 that’s about the conference average. He only allowed a wOBA of 0.189, far better than average, thanks to the combination of keeping hits and walks down.

 

Over the summer in the Cape Cod league, Wolf was throwing 3 pitches, fastball, changeup, curveball, with increased velocity and it looks like he built off of that success to having a strong start to the collegiate season. I think that Wolf’s transformation is fairly sustainable because everything is in line. The FIP is great, the WHIP is great, he didn’t have a crazy amount of batted ball luck, and he controlled his pitches for K/9 & BB/9 improvements. Wolf looks like a legit prospect and probably still has room for improvement velocity-wise. 

 

2020 stat line - 4-starts, 3-1, 1.05, 25.2-IP, 27-K 

 

Mack observation -

 

Would I consider having two wolfs in a future Mets rotation?

 

Well, this Wolf did a lot of good this past season, and on the Cape, to make a defense for that argument.

 

I would consider him in the round 3-5 range