I just saw an article that the Met might non-tender Steve Matz, Rob Gsellman and Miguel Castro on Wednesday December 2. Right after having too much tender turkey at Thanksgiving, as usual.
A quick googling of "non-tender" tells us this:
If a team "non-tenders" a player, that player becomes a free agent and can immediately sign with any of the 30 clubs.
It seems that a team's fears is that they might have to pay more to get a non-tendered player's replacement, and that said player may come back to haunt the club.
The questions any non-tendering team needs to ask itself are:
Do I want the guy back?
What could I sign him back for?
Will he REALLY be any good in the future?
Can I instead use his likely arbitration $$$ to sign someone else who is likely to be non-tendered who is better and/or cheaper?
And could a rival snatch him up and he then has a renaissance and damages the Mets?
Steve Matz started his career a stellar 11-1, but is hold-your-nose 20-40 since, with a horrific 2020 short season in which his main attribute was allowing more launches than Elon Musk's SpaceX. Steve made $5 million last year, and is likely to receive a small upward bump, to say $5.5 million.
Me? Unless I am hearing unbelievable things about his progress this off-season to fix his ills to the point he will likely be successful in 2021, I non-tender him. Maybe try to sign him back for half that. If not, sign someone else better with the saved $$.
Rob Gsellman? He's 2nd year arb eligible, and still not due to make too much, but he had a horrific and mostly injured 2021. ERAs the past 4 seasons of 5.19, 4.28, 4.66 and 9.64 don't scream "irreplaceable". He did, however, save 13 games one season in a pinch, has a 4.50 career pen arm, and can also start in a pinch if he stays heathy.
Me? Can I sign another guy who is better with his $$$? Perhaps. If so, I'd non-tender him too. Sometimes, a fresh franchise start includes cleaning house.
Miguel Castro? He is also 2nd year arb eligible and throws high 90s stuff. Usually, you scream, "yes, tender him." But his career record is 8-18. He'll only be 26 next year, and I did not like watching him last year after the Mets got him. He just seemed quite erratic and wild, averaging more than a walk every 2 innings in his career.
But after not fanning many guys early in his career, he fanned 38 in 24.2 IP last year, so maybe the young fireballer can continue to refine himself. If the Mets feel that is the case, I would tender him, assuming he gets about $2.5 million. If not, see ya.
What do you tender readers have to say about these three? Tender or non-tender?
18 comments:
Matz and Gsellman have had long looks here, and seem more like they're fading than improving. I'd non-tender them and look elsewhere.
Castro, on the other hand, had been inconsistent but shows the potential that made the Mets saw when they traded for him. If he still has options left, starting the season at Syracuse may be needed, but I'd at least give him a full ST before deciding. Tender him.
Given how the Mets lack depth, I would tender Castro and Matz. This time last year people were actually advocating extending Matz. Maybe the Mets before the deadline on Wednesday, instead of giving him a one year $6M deal, can work out a two year $3M incentive laden deal with one year guaranteed and the second year kicking in with minimum performance. Sandy proponents have claimed it was Jeff's fault. Let's see Sandy get creative and build a deep pitching staff.
I would be surprised to see them non-tender Matz and Gsellman. Neither makes a ton of money.
Matz, being left-handed, is a rather valuable commodity. You have to believe his 0-9 was a true outlier and he could be a valuable 3-4-5 starter on some team. If the Mets have given up on him, tender a contract for 5.5 and use him in a trade for other pieces or prospects. Pitching starved teams like the Cubs or Angels would be glad to have him for that money in the back of the rotation.
$5.5M Cohen dollars for lefty Matz seems like a better value than $14M Wilpon dollars for Porcello/Wacha. (with some 20-20 hindsight there)
Gsellman, likewise is a good trade filler chip for a million and a half bucks. As you pointed out, he had some saves and is a major league piece.
Castro. I don't have a read on him at this point. It seems like he has a good live arm and he won't cost that much.
Excellent feedback from GMs Bill, John and Remember 1969. That's why you guys are the GMs and I am not!
All three are the old direction. As Bill said, the first two have had sufficient looks. Rather than doing a Wilpon-like bring-em-back move like they did with Terry Collins, cut them loose. Castro has flailed helplessly many places. I'd consider stashing him in AAA but don't want him as part of the major league pen. If starting off in the minors isn't in the cards, then a blue & orange uniform shouldn't be in his closet.
Castro doesn’t have options left. Did you really think Brodie would trade his closest to the majors starter for a reliever with options? I’m of the opinion that Wilson told him to not care about tomorrow, because obviously no one did.
I’d tender all a contract, bring them to spring training, ans see how things are there. You can always cut them for 1/6 the salary. After a season like last year, you can’t draw conclusions on Matz and forget his previous work. Gsellman is cheap: $1.5MM with two options left. Why cut him? Castro is the harder choice, but he looks Diaz-lite in that he can be untouchable, but he needs to get some control of his stuff. All three have interest, and should at least be tendered.
None of them deserve a raise and should not get one ...the only value Matz had is he is a lefty...keep Matz and non tender the other 2.
Reese, I guess I just think of non-tender as a total throw-away.
There may be a case for non-tender, perhaps Heredia is the best example, but player like Matz and Castro have value for the dollars they will be paid. If Matz were estimated to make $12 or 13M and there is absolutely no market, then maybe, but in spite of the poor year he had last year, he is still a viable major league pitcher for someone, especially at a reasonable $5.5M. Get prospects for him instead of throwing him in the trash can for somebody to pick out and save.
Of the three listed in this piece, I can see Gsellman as the most likely .. an interchangeable part where there are a lot of right handed middle relievers who are replacement level for that kind of money. But why worry about a million and a half if he can be thrown in as a trade filler. Somebody (Cubs?) can use major league arms for that price and give up even a lower level prospect. Better than nothing.
I certainly am not advocating having these guys on the 2021 roster, much less being critical components, but sign and trade makes sense with their current value.
Wow. Many different opinions. Gus has a good take, as long as they don’t hit a spending limit and stop. I am with Reese on Matz. Feels like a lefty Pelfrey. I am not optimistic about Stevie Blunder. 20-40 is a compelling multi year stretch of futility
What was Jeff's fault?
Yes, 20-40 looks awful, but I thought you were among those who feel W/L is not a great measuring stick for SPs.
Using that measure, Jake has been kinda mediocre, no?
20-40 is early 1960s Mets stuff. You can’t discount or dismiss that.
How does that go about doing the same thing and expecting a different result?
So, of course, my wife goes in the supermarket looking for drumsticks and instead buys a 20+ pound Turkey this afternoon, marked dow from $65 to $9. Hope it is tender.
Leftovers are the best!!! Can't beat a turkey sandwich or turkey a la king all over mashed potatoes!
and if it is non-tender, the dog will probably eat it anyway :-)
Remember 1969, after yesterday's surprise turkey buy was cooked we have enough turkey to feed a 40 man roster. I will be eating turkey for weeks to come. I'm the only dog in the house.
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