Life often provides us with binary choices:
2 job offers? Can't work both. Pick one.
Left or right turn? Can't do both. Pick one.
Theoretically, the Mets COULD sign both George Springer and Marcel Ozuna. Also, they might not sign either, choosing to apportion money to areas of greater need like catcher and pitchers (plural).
But if you are going to sign one, and had to pick between Springer and Ozuna, what binary choice would you make?
Let's break it down:
AGE: Ozuna is a year younger, having just turned 30, than Springer, who turned 31 in September. EDGE: Ozuna
2020? Ozuna hit better and was more durable. .338/.431/.636 with 18 HRs and 56 RBIs in 60 games, his best production ever. Springer missed 9 games and went .265/.359/.540. 14/32. Good, but...EDGE: Ozuna.
Career: Springer has 27.3 WAR in 795 games, Ozuna 20.8 in 991 games. Over the last 5 seasons, to give a truer sense of the player's value, Springer's cumulative WAR was 21.1 vs. Ozuna's 14.6. EDGE: Springer.
Durability: Just going by the last 4 years in terms of games played, Springer missed 93 games, while Ozuna missed just 49. EDGE: Ozuna.
Mets' Need: Both are right handed bats, which the Mets need for balance. But the Mets desire to strengthen their defense, and Springer's defensive skills are clearly superior to Ozuna's. And Springer can play CF, which would be a boon to the Mets. EDGE: Springer.
Impact on Division Rival: It is possible that Ozuna would re-sign with the Braves if the Mets don't get him, which will make the Braves tougher to overtake. The Mets signing Ozuna would hurt the Braves more than the Mets signing big George. Springer, if not signed by the Mets, probably will sign outside the Mets' division. EDGE: Ozuna
Cost: Bleacher Report projects (rightly or wrongly) a 5 year, $135 million deal for Springer for his 31-35 age years, and a 4 year, $80 million deal with Ozuna for his age 30-33 years. If so: EDGE: Big to Ozuna.
BINARY DECISION TIME:
This one is a toughie. Me? Given the chance to hurt the Braves, sign a younger guy for less, and for shorter period at a younger age, when there are so many other expensive signing needs are present for the Mets, I'd opt for Ozuna. Yes, his defense would not be nearly as good, but he hit like heck in 2020, and I'd hope he could continue a torrid pace as a Met and make the Mets line up FEARED.
I'd sign either, but my first choice, given all the factors, is Marcel Ozuna.
But I think defense will win out and it will be Springer.
What's your binary choice here? Remember, though, as you do, that the Mets’ budget will be bountiful, but not infinite, there are other positional needs, there are current Mets players who are closing in on free agency that will be costly if retained, and also remember that a year from now, there will be another free agent season to spend on.
My spending priority for 2021 is 1) two bona-fide starters and two bona-fide relievers and 2) a top tier catcher.
Outfield? Third priority for me. So, maybe it won't be limited to a binary choice there, and Sandy and Steve will go another route.
Like, say...TIM TEBOW LOL?
16 comments:
All that analysis:
Where does Ozuna play? Who is in CF?
Jimmy
How long would Springer solve the CF problem before having to be moved to a corner? Either one would be welcome but from a consistency standpoint I would opt for Springer more than for the obvious need in CF.
Tom,
For the life of me I can't understand why the Mets are even thinking of Ozuna.
Springer is the right fit for now but will have to move to a corner spot in a couple of years which should give the Mets enough time to draft his eventual replacement in CF. At least, that should be the plan.
BTW, the Alderson hire has already cost the Mets McCaan who signed with the Yankees. The Braves are already looking at Morton while the Mets run in place.
Why can't the Mets just go out for once and be aggressive with the players it needs to improve the team?. Instead we hear about interest in Ozuna. Who had Ozuna on their list of players to sign?
The other problem with Ozuna is what happens with Nimmo. I would rather him in LF and Springer in CF which brings up the other eternal problem: PLAYING GUYS IN THEIR BEST DEFENSIVE POSITION for a change. Also does anyone know what happened to Metsblog and Matt Cerrone?
Springer is my choice. More complete player. We don’t need another left fielder, we have plenty. Also don’t need another DH, we have plenty of options there as well.
Zozo
Springer is the overwhelming choice. Ozuna will have to play elsewhere. Defense Matters.
Ozuna would probably give them their best outfield offense ever, but perhaps the worst defensively.
As far as Springer having to move to a corner OF position in a few years, that's where Greene and Crow need to be ready in let's say 2 years.
You make a pretty good case for Ozuna but Springer improves defense at 2 positions and makes us a much more well rounded defensive team. I also imagine its a lot more attractive to pitch for an organization that has solid defense lined up.
The Braves are going to very difficult to catch. Another brilliant 1 year deal for them. This is a team that knows what they are doing. Locking up their stars young and getting lots of quality players on reasonable 1 year deals. Sandy has his work cut out for him to catch them. It might take more than one offseason. I'm not really worried about the Nats/Phil/Marlins as much as the Braves.
Dallas, good points, but I read a few days that the Mets were considering Ozuna. But they know the importance of defense as much as we do, so we'll see what they do.
Braves will be tough - but clubs like the Yanks and LAD have risen to the challenges thrown at them in the past - it is time for the Mets to become a predatory big market team. I'd hate to sneak into the playoffs with the wild card again - that can end very abruptly.
Springer, hands down. It is time to start living by the defense matters slogan.
I think Viper said it best in a comment above: "For the life of me I can't understand why the Mets are even thinking of Ozuna."
Also, Viper also made some reference to the Yankees signing McCann ("BTW, the Alderson hire has already cost the Mets McCaan who signed with the Yankees."). I find no evidence of that anywhere, what is the source of that? Thanks.
I think Viper was reading a newspaper from 2013, re: McCann-Yanks.
Hey, it happens.
(But it made me nervous when he posted that comment.)
Jimmy
So we call collectively panicked then checked the news lol
The NY Post just posted an article on the Braves highlighting a bit of what I was talking about. Definitely a big gap to bridge.
Maybe interest in Ozuna is a head fake to squeeze Springer’s asking price a bit.
Springer was extended a qualifying offer and Ozuna wasn't. Ozuna will be cheaper and more importantly not cost a draft pick. Sandy has been preaching spending money and building the farm system. Defense is an overrated facet of the game for Sandy (read Moneyball). In a perfect world, Springer is the choice but in Sandy world, Ozuna gets the nod. Strong right handed bat in left, Conforto in right. And wait for the trade, ala Dodgers - Redsox when Dodger ownership took over.
Moneyball is about market inefficiencies, not bad defense. It's a moving target.
In fact, I currently see three market inefficiencies:
Defense is collectively undervalued, therefore cheaper;
Contact hitters are undervalued, underappreciated;
And Prospects are wildly overvalued.
Jimmy
Jeff, those were great thoughts - thanks.
Jimmy, it is always about WAR, and the cost per each WAR secured. They will have to come up with some economical signings. But they need to avoid the marginal filler that the Wilpons way, way over-relied on over the years. Quality, top to bottom.
I think this was a good thought exercise. People came up with way more positives for Ozuna than I would have. Basically the downside is largely defense but its a pretty big downside because it downgrades 2 spots. I think you really need the DH to make the deal though to both get him and Alonso so reps there. Do we see the Mets making trades of core players to fit him? We have 2 years of Nimmo and 1 year of Conforto left and that has to weigh into decisions as I assume they are thinking about the future with all the moves they make. McNeil/Gimenez/Alonso/Smith have the most long term control/value so I almost assume the build around them. So yes its about WAR but fitting the pieces long term to work around the existing roster makes that so much more complicated.
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