Reese Kaplan: Tom Seaver Caliber Problem Once Again

Back in 1967, the Mets promoted a right handed pitcher they’d obtained in an auction after the Atlanta Braves snafu.  For the folks too young or too busy to remember properly, what the Braves front office did was draft Mr. George Thomas Seaver after the USC baseball season had started.  That move was strictly against the draft rules and it was rated illegal by the baseball commissioner’s office. 

Young Seaver was then put into a raffle of sorts with the other 19 teams and eventually the Mets won the rights to negotiate a contract with him. He spent just one season in the minors in 1966 before making his major league debut in 1967.  

At that time the bottom-feeding Mets had no idea of the success Seaver would bring their franchise.  He was a pure talent they’d never had before in the pitching rotation.  His minor league season included a .500 record and a good 3.13 ERA but nothing eye popping about the strikeout totals or the great control he would exhibit. 

As a rookie in 1967 he went 16-13 for a very bad team with a 2.76 ERA, good enough to earn him both an All Star berth and the National League Rookie of the Year Award.  Over the course of his career he tallied eleven more All Star appearances, three Cy Young Awards and was ushered into the Hall of Fame with 98.8% of the votes.  

I bring up the memories of Seaver because now the Mets are in a similar situation with infielder-turned-pitcher Jacob deGrom.  Thus far he’s only won two Cy Young Awards and only been named to three All Star Games and also won the NL Rookie of the Year.  He would have made a fourth All Star appearance had there been a game in 2020.  He was rewarded with a contract Seaver never could have dreamed to collect.  Therein lies the rub.

Many folks are not really aware that after the 2022 season deGrom has the right to opt out of his contract.  He’s slated to earn $35 million for each of the 2021 and 2022 seasons, so it’s hardly likely he would get much more anywhere else.  The Mets have the deal structured to dip to $32.5 million for 2023 and hold an option for $32.5 million for 2024.  During those two seasons he would be age 35 and 36 respectively.  That’s a period during which pitchers (and position players) tend to deteriorate from their late 20s and early 30s prime period of production.  

For comparison’s sake, Tom Seaver was a 2.55 ERA pitcher with a slanted winning record up through age 34 but in the latter stages of his career the ERA jumped to 3.67 and he was pitching to a 76-72 record.  That’s not bad at all, but is it worth $32.5 million per season?  

Consequently, while many people are reaching inside Steve Cohen’s wallet to spend his money to extend the deal to keep him a Met-for-life in the fashion of David Wright, more prudent folks might think the better move would be to find a trading partner after the 2021 season.  That move would relieve the club of its $35 million burden for 2022 and $32.5 million salary obligation for 2023.  The 2024 season is merely an option, not a buyout.  

Now anyone old enough or who has read enough baseball history is well versed in the 1977 Midnight Massacre during which the Mets traded away both Tom Seaver, their best pitcher, and Dave Kingman, their best hitter, for what proved to be sketchy returns.  No one has ever forgiven M. Donald Grant, Dick Young or anyone else who greased the pipes for Seaver’s exit. 

The fact is that the same hostility could result from a Jacob deGrom deal.  For the team it wasn’t just about the salary but also about the non-payroll aspect of keeping Seaver around.  He meant more for the identity of the club and what it meant to be a Mets fan.  Consequently the next home-grown stud, David Wright, was awarded a terrific contract despite his health issues which continued to get worse.  The Mets obviously did not secure good value on that deal but the fans were kept happy.  

So if you were the Mets and faced the prospect of losing deGrom for nothing in return after the 2022 season or trading him away as a good business move at the risk of losing the goodwill of the fans, what would you do?  The businessman in me says it all depends on the long term look of the ball club and the return you would net for someone of deGrom’s caliber.  It also is directly attached to the $67.5 million in salary relief if you traded him a year too soon.

While others might bandy about with opinions about how best to tap into the Cohen Coffers to sign top free agents, extend Michael Conforto, extend Noah Syndergaard, buy out younger ballplayers from their arbitration and free agent days, the fact is that the deGrom situation should be a top priority for the incoming front office personnel. 

In a way, it’s a no-win situation as you could be stuck with a diminished deGrom for the latter segment of his career or you could deal him away while he’s still got at least one more top tier season in him. 

Well, I guess that’s why the President, GM and owners all deal in the big bucks.