11/20/20

Reese Kaplan -- Danger, PED Robinson. Danger, Danger...



OK, so we've all had a day or two to ride the emotional roller coaster about the Robinson Cano recidivism which results in his forfeiting his entire 2020 salary for which the Mets recoup $20.4 million.  Many were still harboring major hostility for Brodie Van Wagenen's ill-fated trade which was a flat out disaster in 2019, but much improved during the abbreviated 2020 season.  Of course, we're assuming that Edwin Diaz's fine output was the result of pure talent whereas Cano's rebound season was apparently the result of better living through chemistry.  Many people are calling him all kinds of unprintable names right now (and that's probably fair), but the fact is the Mets now have to decide what it is they're going to do with this unexpected vacancy and payroll bonus that was not part of the 2021 plan.

 



Before we get into the specifics of who should play where, which free agent should be signed, what trades should be made and whether or not to expel the twice-caught Cano from the roster altogether, please remember that there is still no front office.  I hate to sound like a broken record (you know, those black vinyl things that your parents and grandparents and great grandparents relied upon for music before Spotify, Apple, Pandora and others came into existence), but it is unwise to rush into such decisions until there are qualified people available to analyze all of the alternatives, the short term need, the long term financial implications and the future of Robinson Cano.  That being said, let's shove all reason aside and look at the various ways the Mets can go about playing out this new development.  

 

The in-house options are plentiful, though people could argue back and forth whether or not they are attractive or intelligent.  Most folks are assuming Jeff McNeil will slide back to his former home at second base where he played credibly well as a middle infielder while producing to the tune of .319 with his bat for his major league career.  That's not a one-year hot streak.  He's had over 1000 major league plate appearances and would average 20 HRs and 76 RBIs to go along with the upper major league tear batting average.  For a guy who customarily bats in the 2-hole, that's pretty awesome production.

 

However, McNeil is not the only choice.  Remember that the Mets have a major confusion in the outfield, too, and no named king of third base either.  Furthermore, for everyone on the Andres Gimenez shortstop bandwagon, there are just as many on the "buy him a ticket out of town" belief when it comes to Amed Rosario.  Then there's J.D. Davis, he of the magical 2019 season and the less stellar 2020 campaign.  These players are all in the mix as Luis Guillorme is already relegated to the role of backup.  

 



Of course, the folks who are interested in expanding the Mets roster with the new-found money from Cano are now looking across town at free agent D.J. LeMahieu who won his second batting title in the past five years and during that period only once hit under .300.  That's pretty amazing for a guy who if anything got better after leaving Coors Field.  He's a .305 career hitter who during his first year in Yankee Stadium hit 26 HRs and drove in 105 to go along with an eye-popping .327 average.  His run production was down a bit in the short 2020 season, but his average jumped up to an otherworldly .364.  He was paid $12 million per year in the Bronx and is looking for a five-year deal at a much higher number.  Given that he's already 32 years old, the duration might be questionable, but the average annual value is not.  The best guesses as to contract terms are four years and $80 million which would put him right in the Cano range of compensation.  

 



There are other second basemen available in free agency, too, not just LeMahieu (who may well give the Bronx Bombers a hometown discount to stay where he's flourished).  Kolten Wong is not in the same class of productivity as LeMahieu, but he would cost a whole lot less.  In 2019 he hit 11 HRs, drove in 59 and stole 24 bases while hitting .285.  That's not too shabby.  He earned $10.5 million last season and the Cardinals paid his $1 million buyout rather than shell out $12.5 for 2021.  He will likely command something on that order for multiple years and has just turned 30.  

 



Jonathan Schoop is a player who has always been on the cusp of greatness but never quite got there.  He has hit as many as 32 HRs in a season and that same year drove in 105 while hitting .293.  It seemed to be an outlier and he's bounced around a bit since leaving Baltimore.  Last year for the Tigers he earned $6.1 million and I don't foresee a major jump up in pay for the 29 year old second baseman.  

 

Dee Strange-Gordon is out there but he's been on a downhill spiral with his batting average and base running for the past four years.  At age 32 already I can't see his speed improving, so I would cast a big "No" to this candidate.  

 

On the trade front everyone is awaiting the big Francisco Lindor acquisition.  He will likely cost $25 million or so per year for many seasons, but now with this year an extra $20 million in your pocket he becomes even more attractive.  Likely either Amed Rosario or Andres Gimenez will have to be part of the trade package going back to Cleveland which helps unclutter the shortstop position, though there are also rumors of a one-on-one including Jeff McNeil.  If that latter option happened, then the Mets have the opportunity to try Rosario or Gimenez at 2nd base or they could go after one of the FA options.  



 

There are likely other trade targets the club could acquire, but until there is a front office it is somewhat pointless to speculate.  I'm in the mixed bag camp regarding Cano.  His colossal stupidity can't be discounted, but then neither can his career .303 batting average.  He's gone and that means there's a lot more money to spend in 2021, but remember that the team is still on the hook for another nearly $41 million for the two seasons that follow.  It's going to be a very interesting Hot Stove season for sure.  

12 comments:

TexasGusCC said...

Why isn’t anyone mentioning DJLM’s ridiculous home/road splits? Loading up on Coors Field numbers before, now he had a 1.200+ OPS at Yankee Stadium and barely .700 on the road. Um, no thanks.

Tom Brennan said...

Agree mostly with Gus on LeMahieu. Age and his splits makes me nervous to go expensive and long.

Schoop - seems like a good player for an 80 win team. I want 100 wins. Pass.

Wong? Maybe. Will he be good enough for our 100 win team?

How about Justin Turner? Driven out of Gotham by Wilpon disdain, only to excel thereafter, he is older but a year or two would work for me for a guy who 1) hits and 2) hits in the playoffs. We WILL be in the playoffs. And he was loved and respected by his LAD teammates.

Hopefully, we nail down our front office before Hot Stove - we need that.


Nice to have these choices, though.

Unknown said...

I still think we should go after DiDi instead of Lindor.
Will cost about 10-15 million less per year, plays great defense, hits very well, can handle NY, we won’t have to trade for him (so we won’t lose prospects or a compensation pick) and most important will only need a 3 year commitment. That way he won’t clog up Mauricio spot when he is ready. If Mauricio is ready earlier we can then trade DiDi and get some more prospects.
Also if we pick up DiDi we can include Rosario and a Nimmo for the true Indian I want Carlos carrasco.

So if you make this move you can have DiDi and Carrasco for about the same money you would have to pay Lindor. So 2 for 1 IMO.

If you decide Wong, which is a good idea as well, I believe he recently won a Gold Glove, so he would improve our defense and help the pitchers out tremendously. Then you put McNiel at 3rd and makes JD a trade candidate.

Zozo

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo, interesting. But Carrasco is turning 34 - given that, is Nimmo and Rosario too much? Seems so to me.

Didi is a fine defender, and good hitter, but turning 31 next year. More and more, I get skittish over most acquisitions over age 30. Maybe for 2 years.

bill metsiac said...

A year ago, the Mets seemed to have a case to void Cespedes' contract, before reaching a deal to severely cut it. I wonder if they can pursue a similar tack to save on Cano's '22 and' 23 $$$.

I don't expect to see any real action, GM or not, before we see what happens with the non-tenders. If something needs doing quickly, Sandy is certainly qualified to make the decision.

Within 2 weeks, we should have a GM, we should know Luis' fate, and we will have a lot of possible choices re:players.

Let's be patient. "Act in haste, repent at leisure" seems like the right approach.

Dallas said...

McNeil is more valuable than Lindor hands down. McNeil has averaged about a 6WAR per 162 games of playing time since he has been playing. Lindor has averaged almost the same 6WAR per 162 games as McNeil.

The difference? We have 4 years of control of McNeil and he plays 4 different positions and is paid MUCH less. The fact that anyone would even float McNeil for Lindor is just plain silly. I think McNeils versatility alone gives him a huge advantage. Think of all the options its given the manager with injuries, pinch hitters, pinch runners etc when he can move McNeil around the field. Its one of those things you simply can't measure with advanced metrics. Frankly I imagine his value goes up more if he is given more time at the defensive position at where he accels. Pushing him out of his natural position again to acquire someone else doesnt make a lot of sense to me. Removing the Cano logjam lets the Mets fix their OF and IF defense. If anything I think they should focus on replacing Davis at 3B and either trade him or have him as a great bench depth.

Remember1969 said...

A few comments . .

Strongly agree re: LeMahieu. I have posted here and other sites about his ugly home/away splits, declining defense at 2nd, and less than average defense in very limited time at 3rd. Why would we pay a guy about to be 33 years old to either put a guy out of position or put him where he is on the downside of his career.

Schoop: Agree - let's start being a big market team that NY deserves.

Wong: Maybe the best of the lot out there, but you have to ask if it was only financial reasons that St. Louis didn't want to pay him a reasonable $12M if they are so thin on offense?

Gregorious: About 4 years too late for this discussion. I advocated him from Arizona before the Yankees got him and we were floating with Flores. At this point, for the money, he is no better than Gimenez.

McNeil for Lindor. I agree with the team control discussion. I do not agree with the defensive versatility discussion. I suspect that if you get out of Metsland where people are not wearing orange and blue sunglasses, if you asked 100 people to pick Lindor on a one year deal @ 20M, or McNeil on a four year deal for the same, Lindor would be picked a huge percentage of time. At this point, McNeil for Lindor is a trade that I would make as a Mets fan. Lindor plays premium defense at a premium position, hits as well or better than McNeil and is a year and a half younger. McNeil, with all his versatility, is still a pretty one dimensional player with a decent hit tool. Lindor is borderline superstar and probably one of the 10 or 15 best players in the game.

Dallas said...

Its good you're not in the Mets front office because thats now how you build a sustainable winner.

Advanced metrics might have Lindor slightly better (he also had a pretty unremarkable 2020 season) but when you add versatility he simply loses. McNeil is one of the most exciting Mets to watch. He gets on base, hits for average and can hit for power and plays 4 positions. If thats one-dimensional I'll take it. You don't upgrade a team by swapping out a player of similar value (lets call it 6 WAR) just to pay them A LOT more for less years. Swap out JD Davis at 3rd in a trade for a guy like Arenado who might put up a 6WAR and then you at least have a huge upgrade in WAR at that position. Trading your core producers that put up 3-6WAR plus other assets (prospects & $$) you better get a VERY big upgrade. There are very few players it would make sense to trade 4 years of McNeil for. This is why you'll see the Mets use free agency and its very unlikely they give up assets for Lindor/Arenado unless the prices in players come way down. I mean this is what Sandy has been preaching already in his very short tenure.

Remember1969 said...

I guess we'll just need to disagree on this one.

A couple final thoughts. I don't know where you get or why you are using 6 for WAR for McNeil. His high was 4.9 in 2019, which was a very good year. He simply cannot get much better than that because of his defense.

Versatility is what you want from your bench, not your best hitter. Pretty sure the Angels aren't particularly worried that Mike Trout can't play second or third base. The problem is that McNeil's defensive metrics are not great anywhere. And Lindor actually gives you some additional versatility as a switch hitter.

I would certainly encourage an upgrade at 3rd base, but Arenado's contract is an albatross. Also his home/away splits as a hitter are somewhat stark - OPS is more that .200 higher at Coors Field than on the road.

Would I be happy with McNeil at second base for an entire year? Sure, but I would love to watch Lindor and Gimenez as the keystone combo. That would be electric.

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969...a Lindor/Gimenez defensive combo would be scintillating.

Tom Brennan said...

Remember 1969...a Lindor/Gimenez defensive combo would be scintillating.

Dallas said...

1969...I said they both have averaged a 6WAR over 162 games in their career. Obviously last year was shortened and McNeils rookie year was a partial year so I just calculated about what they would do over 162 games.

I'm sure if Trout was more versatile that would continue to add to his already incredible value as it would for any player... If you can't see how McNeils versatility was huge for the Mets over the games he has played I'm not sure you have been watching. With that being said McNeil has put up the WAR he has while being pushed into positions he had rarely even played before. I would ponder that his WAR would go up further if he played a majority of his games at his natural position...

You say Arenados contract is an Albatross...well what kind of contract do you think you have to give Lindor to keep him past 2021? I bet its a bigger one that Arenado has left on his. I mean thats really the point with both of them...pay them 20-35 million a year plus prospects and core players makes no sense when the Mets are deep at SS and there are a glut of SS next year up in FA. To keep either of them you probably are paying them into their mid 30's (which is still younger than the horrible Cano contract).

Personally I prefer watching my homegrown all-stars as "electric" as you think Gimenez/Lindor would be. Even if you think 5 WAR is McNeils ceiling you aren't upgrading the Mets wins you're just costing them more money & years for nearly the same amount of production...people have this irrational love for Lindor where they can't see past the sum of the parts you give up in long term and only focus on the now.

The Dodgers are in a very different place than the Mets. They have a stockpile of talent through the system because they have been managed better over the last 5 years so they can give up a little more to do some incremental upgrades as they have less major holes to fill. The Dodgers traded for Betts but realize Betts is literally one of the top 2-3 players in the game. Lindor is good but he is not Betts good. Betts also