Tom Brennan - When Shopping in the Expensive Aisle, Consider J.T. Realmuto vs. Johnny Bench

The great Johnny Bench

The Mets are rumored to be in play for the very expensive JT Realmuto.

Considered baseball's current # 1 catcher.

How does he compare to a past great catcher, Johnny Bench, and offensive machine with a laser arm?

Let me break it down, son.

JTR debuted shortly after his 23rd birthday.  Bench debuted shortly before his 20th birthday.

JTR will be 30 at the start of next season.

In his five full seasons from 2015-19, JTR averaged 134 games.

Over that span, he averaged 30 doubles, 4 triples, 17 HRs, and 64 RBIs, hitting .303 for a high and .278 or lower all other seasons.

In the shortened season of 2020, he hit .266/.349/.491, but his K rate (previously 0.8 per game) increased to 1 per game.

Bench, in his age 20-29 years averaged 29 doubles, 29 HRs, and 103 RBIs, and hit about .273, in an average of 149 games.  Quite a few of those games were in the outfield or infield, or as a pinch hitter, to give him some rest from catching rigors.

Who was better? Clear offensive edge to the Hall of Famer.

Defensively now, let me just focus on caught stealing rate.  

Bench threw out 349 and allowed 395 steals between the start of his and his pre-30 year old season, an astounding rate of 47%, but at age 28 and 29, he nailed 42% and 40% of runners, still a great rate, but a sign of some deterioration.

Reamuto through age 29 has thrown out 36% of runners, better than league average but not nearly so much as Johnny B.

Once again: Clear defensive edge to the Hall of Famer.

The real question we are concerned with, though, as potential Mets' buyers of JTR's future services, is how will JTR produce in his 30 through 34 age years, if indeed his contract were to be for 5 years.

Johnny Bench slipped in his age 30 through 34 years.  A whole lot.  

He nailed 42% at age 30, 32% at age 31, and 29% at age 32.

And he hardly ever caught after age 32.  In fact, he caught in just 13 games after age 32!

Hitting?  That also slid downward.

From 30 through 34, there was the strike-shortened year of 1981, so I will drop that year and use his age 35 year instead.  

Bench over those 5 seasons averaged 385 at bats, 16 doubles, 19 HRs, and 63 RBIs.  He was good, but nowhere near the Bench prowess of his 20's.  Probably a 20% drop in playing time, and 10-20% drop in per-at bat damage.  But, again, much of those games were as a non-catcher.

The Mets don't need JTR as a non-catcher.  They need a dominant # 1 catcher for most of those expected 5 contract years.

Who else?  Former Met and Expo great Gary Carter, by comparison had excellent offensive seasons at ages 30, 31, and 32, then was decent but with significant slippage (compared to those 3 years) at age 33, and slipped to just .242/.301/.358 at age 34.

Defensively, he had a gun for an arm in his 20's, nailing about 45% of runners - terrific.  

From age 30 through 34, though, he averaged 33% his first two years, 28% his next 2 years, and just 19% in the 5th year.  Major decline.

Hey, there are exceptions, and I'm sure you the informed reader can point them out.  

But to me?  The morale of that story is:  

When it comes to aging catchers (i.e., catcher turning 30, and in JTR’s case, a cranky hip), let the buyer expect significant slippage.

Then consider whether a gargantuan contract with JTR is really the best way to go, or whether to pursue other shorter, less expensive options, and splurge elsewhere.