By David Groveman, November 9, 2020
Last month I analyzed the Met farm system and reviewed 10 case studies of starting pitchers who have recently risen through the ranks. This month we’ll be doing something similar for batting but we’re going to be handling things slightly differently this time around. Instead of reviewing and analyzing case studies, we will review perception vs. reality when it comes to the various levels in the Mets system.
Perception
- International Rookie Leagues (DSL1/DSL2)
- These leagues have players between the ages of 16 and 20 with a fairly low percentage of players eventually emerging as superstars. The Mets and other teams recruit many young players through these leagues but, usually, you only need to focus on the 1-5 players the team spent large amounts of money on.
- Stats out of the DSL are wildly inconsistent (Vicente Lupo 2012) and often far overblown. There are some glimmers of information one can glean from these leagues if you look carefully. Typically power, especially one’s SLG+, cannot be faked. That being said, you need to take any stat from this level with a grain of salt.
- Domestic Rookie Leagues (GCL/APP)
- Fielding players who have graduated from the DSL and high school athletes from recent drafts, the Rookie leagues are more about figuring out how to be a professional athlete than generating stats. With a typical age range of 18-22 these leagues are the most likely victims, should the MLB look to trim the minor league fat some day.
- Stats out of these leagues are still hit or miss with some distinct exceptions. Age plays the biggest role in whether a player’s stats are meaningful with younger players facing more experienced minor league filler players right away.
- Low A Leagues (NYP/SAL)
- The New York Penn League serves as both a rookie league for the top collegiate draftees and a proving ground for those coming up from the lower levels. Players typically fall between 19-22 years of age at this level with a high number of major league rehab assignments thanks to proximity to the major league club (for Brooklyn).
- In both the NYP and SAL leagues, pitchers enjoy a healthy advantage over hitters who find their power numbers hurt by some of the more “difficult hitting ballparks” in the minors. Pitcher success at these levels can sometimes be blown out of proportion as well.
- Advanced A (FSL)
- Some people claim that the Advanced A is where the minors really begins. From here on up, success at a level can exponentially indicate that a player is likely to make and succeed upon reaching the majors. Players are typically between 21-23 years old at this league.
- While not the “Pitcher’s Heaven” that Low A gets a reputation for, Port St. Lucie does still seem to dampen the offensive numbers from some players who pass through its ranks. It also seems that some players who only manage to “survive” at this level are able to prove themselves late on and make names for themselves.
- Double and Triple A (EAS/INT)
- The top levels of the minors become harder for me to prove my points as the Mets recently moved from an extremely hitter friendly league (The PCL) to their current home in Syracuse. Players at these levels are typically between 22-27 years old.
- The perception that Double A sees an offensive bump is built partially on the fact that pitching seems to get the edge for the three levels immediately preceding it. You also find that many teams field major league backup squads of aging major league talent in their Triple A affiliates which badly skews some of the numbers. Regardless, it seems that a player has to prove themselves in Binghamton to have much of a chance in the majors.
Reality
- International Rookie Leagues (DSL1/DSL2)
- The exception that proves the rule might be Andres Gimenez. In 2016 (at the age of 17) he managed a batting line of .350/.469/.523 in 62 games with the two DSL clubs. These outstanding numbers earned him a promotion straight to the SAL where he managed to make good on much of the promise these outrageous numbers hinted at.
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