Mets360 - Jeff McNeil and the trouble with small sample conclusions

 

By Brian Joura November 15, 2020

Most fans are familiar with the concept – if not necessarily when or how to apply it – of a small sample size. A sample with fewer chances shouldn’t be taken as seriously as one with a much greater pool of outcomes. Tomas Nido put up a 150 wRC+ last year, which is essentially what Mike Piazza did in 2000 yet no one is saying he should be the team’s starting catcher. That’s because Nido’s sample last year was 26 PA while Piazza’s in 2000 was 545.

While everyone seems to agree on Nido, we don’t have to look far for examples in 2020 where people are too eager to dismiss sample size. Far too many people want to lock up Michael Conforto to an extension based on 2020 results with a .412 BABIP. Far too many people want to consider Brandon Nimmo a platoon player based on 60 PA last season. Far too many people consider David Peterson a rotation lock based on a 3.44 ERA in 49.2 IP.

And this issue cuts both ways. It’s not only when a player achieves good results that we should be suspicious of the sample size. Which brings us to Jeff McNeil and his ability to play 3B. If given my druthers, McNeil would be the Mets’ starting second baseman in 2021, a position he should have been playing in 2020 and 2019, too. But Sandy Alderson isn’t reaching out to me, so the assumption is that McNeil will be playing elsewhere the majority of the time next season.

Many are repulsed with the idea of seeing McNeil on the left side of the infield ever again. In 75 innings at the hot corner in 2020, McNeil committed five errors, a rate that makes even Wilmer Flores wince. McNeil was bad – really, really bad – at third base. Typically, we consider 1,200 innings in the field to be a full season. Also, there’s a general understanding that it takes two years of defensive chances to give you the same reliability as one year of offensive numbers.

Understanding those two things about defensive samples – isn’t saying McNeil can’t play third based on what he did in 75 innings last season an even worse idea than comparing 2020 Nido to 2000 Piazza?

Continue reading by clicking here.