Tracking AAA/AA Mets Pitchers

Some experts tell me that the hardest conversion for a minor pitcher is going from A+ to AA. Others say AA to AAA, and everybody agrees that the MLB is a whole nuther’ thang…



The one thing everybody agrees on is the only true test is when you get to majors.



The other thing I always hear is you can’t get to the majors unless you throw strikes. The strange thing about this is the fact that I can’t seem to find any stats on percentage of pitches thrown that were strikes. You would think someone would keep this stat.

Anyway, what we can do is look at the current gaggle of Mets pitchers that have AA and AAA experience and see how they’re doing, based on strikeouts per game, walks per game, WHIP, BABIP, and FIP.

(BABIP is a statistic measuring the percentage of plate appearances ending with a batted ball in play (excluding home runs) for which the batter is credited with a hit [1]. BABIP is commonly used as a red flag in sabermetric analysis, as a consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain - much more so for pitchers than hitters. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by pitchers, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to improve in the following season, and those pitchers whose BABIPs are extremely low can often be expected to regress in the following season. A normal BABIP is around .300, though the baseline regression varies depending on the quality of the team's defense (e.g. a team with an exceptionally bad defense could be expected to yield a BABIP of .315)



(FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, was created by Tom Tango. It's a simple estimate of how well a pitcher has pitched, given his walk, strikeout and home run rates. It follows the formula (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP. 


So, how did the current crew do in Queens, Buffalo, or Binghamton:

                                    SO/9          BB/9            WHIP           BABIP          FIP

Jenrry Mejia/MLB         5.08           4.62            1.69             .326        4.75
Jenrry Mejia/AAA       10.13           1.13            0.75             .267        3.39
Jenrry Mejia/AA           8.56           4.61            1.21             .275        3.00

Pat Misch/MLB              5.50          0.96             1.24             .315        3.67
Pat Misch/AAA              5.91          1.43             1.15             .295        3.49

Dillon Gee/MLB            4.64           4.09             1.21             .237        4.23
Dillon Gee/AAA             9.2            2.29             1.33             .339        4.07


Josh Stinson/AAA        6.75            2.57             1.07             .218        4.94
Josh Stinson/AA          5.55            4.08             1.43             .295        4.49



Dylan Owen/AAA         8.32            2.84             1.65            .384         4.19
Dylan Owen/AA           7.32            4.15             1.34            .270         5.03


Mike Antonini/AAA      6.08           1.22              1.35            .336         4.67

Mike Antonini/AA        7.26           1.78              1.20            .301         4.14



Robert Carson/AA       5.55           4.25              1.87           .377          3.47



Chris Schwinden/AA    7.83            2.16             1.50           .369          3.80



Mark Cohoon/AA         7.10           1.90             1.25           .330           3.63



Eric Niesen/AA           6.90            7.01             1.82          .313            5.91


Pedro Beato/AA          7.54           2.87              1.14          .274            3.66


Elvin Ramirez/AA       9.45           8.10              1.65           .200           7.86

I through in two “control factors”… Ramirez, who everyone seemed to be after in the Rule V draft, and Beato, who the Mets chose.

The first current Met that apparently is getting all this down is Mejia, especially at the AAA level, which is where he finished the year up at. On paper, he looks to be the leader of the pack and all this was done at 20-years old. This guy looks real special.



Past Mejia, no one seems to come in second; however, it is obvious that it’s not Carson, who had had trouble since leaving St. Lucie.

What is obvious that none of these guys are really ready to take on Queens. Gee will probably be asked to, and I like what I see regarding Stinson, but it’s going to take an awful lot of determination not send Jenrry to Flushing.

 I plan on keeping a close look at these guys come April and I'll be tracking their total pitches and how many are strikes. You gotta throw strikes to make it in baseball. Yeah, velo, sickness, a mix of pitches, and a little luck helps too, but, you still gotta throw strikes.