Finding The Diamonds in the Rough

Low Risk... High Reward... we've heard it about 1000 times. A player who has been VERY good, who has dealt with repeated years of disappointment due to injury or some other issue. You give him an incentive rich deal for a single season and if he does NOT perform, you haven't lost much money. Let us see who is out there who might fit into this category.

Catchers:
The category is pretty slim in free agency. The only names I come up with are Ivan Rodriguez who will be 40 and Gerald Laird who reminds me of a slightly worse Ronny Paulino. Now... Ryan Doumit might be a guy to look at but all and all I don't think there is anyone with upside enough to bother.

First Base:
The Mets have Ike Davis who is cheap, young and talented. They also have Murphy and Evans who can fill in if there is an injury. Moving on.

Second Base:
I don't know if any of these guys are necessarily good fits for the Mets, but they are at least offensive upgrades to Ruben Tejada.

Aaron Hill - He's sorta been hit or miss his entire career. He burst onto the scene with tremendous numbers in 2007 then again came up big in 2009. He's got some power and the ability to play a few positions, but the question is... how much do teams think he's worth. Arizona could keep him for $8 Mil but... I'm betting they don't. As a free agent I think he costs AT LEAST $2.5 Mil guaranteed. But I doubt much higher.

Kelly Johnson - Kelly had a good year in Atlanta before falling off the charts rapidly. He then re-emerged in Arizona where he developed a powerful reputation for HRs and strikeouts. Now... he's probably THE best 2B on the market (if Phillips is brought back to Cincy) and not what I'd call CHEAP, but again I don't think the interest will garner a contract anywhere near $10 Mil guaranteed. Think more around $4 or $5.

Third Base:
IF Wright were traded... the Mets have Murphy, Lutz and even Evans, Satin and Turner to throw out to the position. HOWEVER, it never hurts to look at other options.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - From 2008 through 2010 he was actually a pretty solid contributor and he managed it in PITCHER parks. In 2011 he flopped pretty hard but he's likely to not cost much at all and he has pretty solid power. He'd NOT be more than a 1 year deal and for that year... he'd not be more than a $2-3 Mil guaranteed. IS he better than Murphy? I don't know. HOWEVER, we could potentially trade Murphy.

Short Stop:
IF Reyes isn't re-signed. There ISN'T a cheap option with high upside to be had. SORRY, Jimmy Rollins will not be cheap.

Outfield:
I only see the Mets looking at a free agent OF if they intend to not offer arbitration to Angel Pagan. If they do go that route getting a free agent CF in case Captain Kirk proves not to be ready would just be a wise backup plan. There are actually a good number of options. Though only two strike me as value options.

Nate McLouth - Remember when Nate was the best player on the Pirates? Well 2.5 BAD seasons in Atlanta later and few people do. His option will not be picked up and he's not likely to get a BIG offer from anyone. With all that out in the open, if I can get McLouth for less than the commitment we'd be giving Pagan in arbitration I think I'd have to sign up for it. He still has some power and some speed and gives some prospects a little extra time to develop.

Grady Sizemore - Since the height of his value in 2006 he's taken a nose dive. Does that mean teams have forgotten about what Grady COULD be? Maybe... maybe not. I'm willing to bet that the Mets COULD take a chance on Grady for right around what Pagan would win in arbitration and that the reward of suce a venture could be VERY high. It's a lot of IF. I still happen to think he has something to offer a pro team.

Starting Pitchers:
We've finally reached the point where you can BANK on Alderson getting 1 or 2 guys in this type of category. The list starts with a couple of guys we all know and from there... well it's other guys we know.

Chris Capuano - Capuano was not a phenomenal starter for the Mets but I like bringing him back as a starter because IF/WHEN the Mets start bringing up the Harveys, Familias and Mejias of the world he can switch back into the bullpen and be DARNED effective. He's also a fine option for eating innings as a starter during what might be another ROUGH rebuilding year.

Chris Young - Before he got hurt... AGAIN, he was the BEST pitcher on the Met staff. Will he be able to be healthy in 2012? Probably not, but he's also likely to be cheap, and WHEN healthy he's likely to be pretty darned good. If we struck gold and he managed to stay off the DL... well we would be in a very NICE situation.

Scott Kazmir - Kazmir fell off the wagon HARD. He's not looked at remotely like the pseudo-ace he was (briefly) in Tampa. He really wouldn't be expected by almost anyone to be anything all that special in ANY capacity. HOWEVER, as he was once a front-end starter and once a top prospect for the Mets so he'd be worth a minor league contract and Spring Training invite.

Javier Vazquez - His 2011 wasn't good but I still think Vazquez could cobble together another fine season of NL pitching. He actually might be my favorite pick from this list to have the biggest impact on the 2012 Mets. He's got the ability to be a #3 pitcher if things break right and wouldn't cost much more than a Chris Capuano.

Chien-Ming Wang - Now... he didn't exactly wow anyone in 2011 but with injury recovery I really think it's the second year back that you can judge. With a chance to train full time again, perhaps the Mets could coax Wang into the pitcher he was for that team in the Bronx? Perhaps not. Again... he wouldn't cost much.

Relief Pitching:
I'm sorry but there isn't a real answer for low-risk high-reward players right now. Once the number of teams looking for closers goes down... then YES, there will be, but until then all the options should be considered middle of the road (though Papelbon should be considered pricey).