So...the Rockies want David Wright?

The rumors surrounding Colorado’s interest in trading for David Wright just won’t go away. There were rumblings during the waiver period that the Rockies wanted him and now the reports are strong that they’re going after him this offseason.

Colorado wants a RH hitter to add to Tulowitzki and Gonzalez and has a hole at 3B. Bringing in a power-hitting 3B like Wright fills both of these needs and allows them to drop Helton down in the lineup. Also, if CitiField has hurt David’s confidence and numbers, a move to Denver should resurrect him as a power threat.

All debating as to whether or not the Mets should trade Wright to Colorado aside, the question is what should they be looking for in return if he is traded. In trading Wright, the Mets’ top priority should be pitching…frontline, TOR starting pitching. It’s the most valuable commodity in baseball. Since Wright is the Mets’ most valuable trading chip, it makes sense that they seek pitching in return. Because of this, Drew Pomeranz should be the top target from Colorado.

Pomeranz is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball and came in at #14 overall in Baseball America’s Midseason list. The big lefty profiles as a future #1/#2 starter and would be a valuable addition to the core of young pitching that the Mets already have in-house. The 2013 (and beyond) rotation could feature Pomeranz, Harvey, Niese, and Wheeler in the 2-5 slots. Their combined salary of about $4 million will go a long way to easing the team’s payroll concerns and provide them with a stable of young pitchers on par with Tampa Bay. The difference being that the Mets would have the means to both lockdown these pitchers long-term AND go out and add an established star.

The next player to target is 3B prospect Nolan Arenado. Including him in this deal is a no-brainer for both sides. With Wright moving the Denver, Arenado won’t have a spot to play there and the Mets do not have a 3B prospect in their organization who projects as a major league regular. Arenado is another BA top 50 prospect and one of the best 3B prospects in all of baseball. He already has an advanced eye at the plate and has shown tremendous power - he hit 20 HR and drove in over 120 runs last year in A+ while striking out only 53 times. While there were concerns about his defense going into 2011, Arenado has been working very diligently at the hot corner this year and has impressed observers with his glove work. He’ll likely start 2012 in AA, however I expect that he’ll move quickly and will be ready to take over at 3B in the majors by Opening Day 2013. While he won’t be able to “replace” David Wright in a lot of ways, Arenado promises to be a very good hitter and an average defender. A homegrown (under team control and cheap) infield of Davis, Havens, Tejada (assuming Reyes leaves), and Arenado would provide the Mets with very good offensive production and solid defense, allowing the team to spend money in the outfield to round out a very good club.

The last piece I would go after is lefty reliever Rex Brothers. Brothers profiles as a potential closer, featuring a mid-90’s fastball and a mid-80’s “wipeout” slider. In the majors last year, he notched 59 K’s over 40 innings and sported a 2.88 ERA pitching out of the bullpen. With the Rockies looking to move Huston Street, it appears that Rafael Betancourt is the pick to follow him the closer’s spot. This doesn’t mean that Brothers is a throwaway, but it does mean that the Rockies would be more likely to deal him as he is not the closer-in-waiting.

That would leave the deal as David Wright for Drew Pomeranz, Nolan Arenado, and Rex Brothers. I mentioned earlier in the post that Colorado is also looking to move Huston Street. As it stands, the Mets have a need at closer. I don’t think that Street should be one of the targets if Wright is traded; Wright should be moved for young, high-ceiling talent and a closer like Joe Nathan can be signed off the free agent market to hold down the closer spot next year. However, I could see the deal expanded to include Street, in a way combining 2 potential deals. I don’t know what the Rockies would be looking for in return, I’m just going to assume they expect prospects (not the level of Pomeranz and Arenado) in return. The expanded blockbuster would look like

Mets: Pomeranz, Arenado, Brothers, Street

Rockies: Wright, prospects (Valdespin? Lagares? Nieuwenhuis? Flores?)

For a team looking for a closer next year, adding Huston Street (at $7 million) makes sense. He has averaged 30 saves/162 games in his career. Although his numbers took a dip last year, pitching in Colorado had a lot to do with that – his home/road splits are striking (ERA - 5.59 vs. 2.15). His acquisition still leaves room for the Mets to go and sign Joe Nathan in a setup/back-up role and further solidify the bullpen and give Jenrry Mejia, Brad Holt, and the “newly acquired” Rex Brothers time to mature before moving up to the ML pen. Going forward, I envision these three forming a very solid lockdown pen with one of them serving as the closer. There is another bonus to bringing in Street to close. He will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. This means potentially 2 more (possibly 4 if RA Dickey pitches well again next year and then leaves) early draft picks for a FO that covets them. The Mets might also be able to get him on the cheap, since they’re already at the table for Wright and the free agent market for closers is pretty strong this year.

The return for Wright (Pomeranz, Arenado, Brothers) might seem like a lot, however I think the market says otherwise. If 2 months of an aging Carlos Beltran (and no draft pick compensation) can net 1 Top 50 prospect from a team that desperately wants him, the price for 1 year of an in-his-prime David Wright (and 2 potential draft picks) should be higher, especially if the destination team in question desperately wants him. It’s not out of the question for the Mets to request 2 Top 50 prospects and a reliever for the face of their franchise and one of the best 3B in all of baseball. While it’s true that Wright can void his 2013 option if traded, there is no guarantee that he does so. Even if he wants to keep his options open, the Rockies will have moved themselves into prime position to retain Wright if they choose. After playing a season in Colorado (and likely watching his numbers jump), Wright could be swayed into staying.

If the Rockies are unwilling to include Pomeranz, the Mets should politely decline any deal. In trading Wright, the Mets MUST get a top-flight pitching prospect in return or the deal will be a disaster. Getting back Arenado and a lesser pitching prospect will turn sour very quickly and the trade will be remembered along with the Seaver and Kazmir trades. Since the Rockies are pursuing Wright and the Mets have the advantage here, they have to exploit it as much as they can or walk away completely.