When going through the "Top 25" it might seem odd to start with Ike Davis and Jon Niese. Here's the fact: Davis and Niese WILL DEFINITELY be on the 2012 Mets. David Wright, Jose Reyes, Johan Santana... they are more in the maybe camp than you might think (check tomorrow's post for more on this). Niese has established himself in two seasons as a middle of the rotation lefty with front-end potential. Plus, I truly believe that 2012 will be a breakout year for Jon.What's To Like:
PROGRESS - While his ERA went up a bit in 2012, I like to look a little deeper. His walks went down, his strikeouts went up and his WHIP went down. It isn't leaps and bounds, but we need to expect a pitcher like Niese to not be growing by staggering amounts.What's Not To Like:
FADING - Niese hasn't been around long enough to show a "trend" but in 2010 he faded towards the season's end and in 2011 he got hurt. One more... and it IS a trend.
NORMAL - Look at his stuff and Niese isn't exactly Nolan Ryan. He throws a 90 MPH fastball and a couple pretty slick breaking pitches. He'd be classified as a "Gamer" if he were a prospect. The silver lining (and reason I have not given up on Mark Cohoon) is that he's a lefty. Which elevates his "Normal" stuff into something "Abbie Normal".
Random And Awesome:
THE NOSE - Were this an opera, Niese might have a situation like Shostakovich's protagonist. The story by Nikolai Gogol centers around a man whose nose is removed whilst shaving. The nose goes on to rise in rank and fame, exceeding that of its former owner. Last night whilst watching Axford pitch, I wondered if part of HIS success was due to his... extravagant facial hair. This made me wonder if a batter might be distracted by a pitchers facial quirk. If that is true, then batters must have issues when faced with the gravitational force of Niese's shnoz.The Top 25:
- Ike Davis, 1B
- Jon Niese, SP
3 comments:
IMO...
Jon Niese will be part of the Mets rotation for 5+ years. He's that talented.
He could be. A lot depends upon if he takes another step this coming year.
Niese is a good pitcher who I expect to only get better. He seems to have the upside of a #3, maybe borderline #2. Having said that, the Mets should move forward with the expectation that he'll be no better than a #4.
Why? If he reaches his ceiling, you've got above-average production in the back of the rotation from someone produced by the organization and presumably less expensive than an outside acquisition. If he doesn't get any better than he is right now, no harm in having a solid #4 to lock down in the rotation for the next 5+.
I still look at Niese as part of a Big 3 produced by the organization to lock down the back of the rotation (with 2 of Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia, Famila) while the FO goes out and acquires pitchers to slot in SP1 and SP2.
Next year, I'd like to see his ERA come down and for him to make it through an entire season strong without running out of gas at the end....again.
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