5/26/14

Stephen Guilbert - Who The Mets Will Draft #10 Overall

11 comments


The nature of my job makes it that I am radio silent to the baseball world for days and sometimes weeks at a time. I then come back to see all that has happened. Injuries, ears getting bitten off, hot streaks, managerial firings, and the most recent trade rumors.

Nothing changes as much as the amateur player draft in the weeks leading up to selection day. I left off with HS SS Nick Gordon looking like a potential target for the Mets at #10, RHP Jeff Hoffman as a potential #1 overall candidate and a lock to go top 5, and HS 3B Michael Chavis was nowhere near the top 10. Brady Aiken had just finished his meteoric ascent to #1 consideration and Trea Turner was confusing everyone. Here are a few of the targets the Mets have been linked to, make sense for the team, or are projected to be selected around #10, the likelihood the Mets draft them, then, finally, the projected pick for the Mets as it stands now.

Trea Turner- SS- NC State

The Mets have been linked to Turner for as long as 2014 draft prospect lists came out a couple years ago. Speed, defensive skills, power, contact ability, and all at the position the Mets need the most. Turner was a #1 potential pick before struggling to hit some of the better collegiate pitching he has faced this year. I think he was trying too hard to make himself the #1 overall pick and was trying to hit for too much power. Regardless, Turner still projects right around the #7-11 range, I cannot see the Blue Jays passing on his talent. There was a time where Nick Gordon looked like the #9 pick, leaving the Mets the chance to draft Turner if they so desired, but that time has passed. While I do believe the Mets would draft Turner if they could, I do not see him being available.

Jeff Hoffman- RHP- East Carolina

If the Mets were to draft Hoffman, there would be a large percentage of the fan base that would call for blood. Hoffman will not pick up a baseball for months after having Tommy John surgery and most likely will not pitch until summer of next year. However, this was as dominant a collegiate pitcher as there was in the country before his injury and as we saw with Lucas Giolito, TJS can turn a former #1 projected pick into a later-first round steal into a top MLB prospect. As Mack has said, "would you draft Matt Harvey knowing he'd miss the next year?" I think we all would. Right now, I put the odds of drafting Hoffman at <5% but it would not be a bad play.

Nick Gordon- SS- Florida HS

Gordon has been a player I really like. He has the best infield arm in the draft, has great size, athleticism, speed, and impressive power potential. As far as high school middle infielders go, he passed HS SS Jacob Gatewood as the player in this draft. What else happened? His brother, 2B Dee Gordon for the Dodgers started playing well. Really well. No, what Dee does has nothing to do with Nick's performance this season (which has been very very good), but it does put scouts' minds at ease that the offspring of Tom Gordon can succeed at the big league level. Also, if Dee Gordon can be this good, what is the ceiling for Nick, the better player of the two? No chance the young Gordon falls to the Mets at #10. This disappoints me as I have had him projected to the Mets and really wanted this guy. Bummer.

Michael Conforto- OF- Oregon State

This is the guy a lot of the mocks have going to the Mets at this point, including draft guru Jon Mayo. A lot of folks tie him to the Mets because of two reasons: 1.) The Mets will draft a college hitter, having drafted three straight high schoolers, and 2.) That Conforto's power and patience combo makes him a no-brainer for Sandy Alderson and his team's philosophies. Both of these reasons are rational and I cannot blame experts and fans alike for putting those two together. Here is why it is wrong, though: Conforto is not much of a defender and unless something strange happens at the top of the draft, both he and OF Brad Zimmer will be available. Zimmer is the superior player and a far superior defender. I do not mind Conforto, but I see no instance in which the Mets draft a college hitter and it is not Turner or Zimmer. One of the two will be available, making Conforto invisible to the Mets. Plus, some have him going before the Mets pick anyway.

Touki Toussaint- RHP- Florida HS

I love this kid. I have written thousands of words about my affinity for this power righty. He should be on the board and his command is certainly a concern but his arm strength and fastball/curve combination do not come around all that often. I think either some team grabs him early in the draft (Phillies or Blue Jays, perhaps) or he falls to the late first round. I doubt the Mets take such a high risk in a draft in which they have only one pick in the first 83 picks.

Sean Newcomb- LHP- Hartford

25%. That is the highest percentage I will give a player outside of my current projection. No, the Mets do not necessarily need another pitcher and there are good college bats on the board and also some chance that a player who should go much higher falls in their laps (think RHP Aaron Nola or C/OF Alex Jackson) but Newcomb has the size and repertoire that everyone is drooling over and there is a good chance he will be available. The Mets lack lefty depth in their system and only one southpaw at the big league level.

The Mets will draft:

OF Bradley Zimmer- San Francisco

Zimmer did everything he could to vault himself in the top 10 picks in the 2014 player draft and whichever team takes him gets a steal. .368/.461/.573 with power, speed, a dominant arm in the outfield and overall defensive skills in center that make scouts project him a a gold glove contender at the next level. Five tools. Seven skills. Zimmer has it all and I have no idea why he is not in consideration for the top few picks in the draft. As it stands now, most mocks and experts have him available at #10 and draft guru Matt Garrioch has him as the 19th ranked prospect in the pool of players, a ranking i find too low but in a very very deep draft.

Here are the odds as I see it now:

Zimmer- 50%
Newcomb- 25%
Turner- 10%
Conforto- 5%
Freeland, Beede, Nola, Finnegan- 5%
Toussaint, Holmes, Reid-Foley- <5%
Chavis, Gettys- <5%
Hoffman- <5%


Who else could the Mets draft? Answer in the comments below.

P.S. Think about what drafting Hoffman could do. You sign him for a million under slot. He has no bargaining power and is hurt. He becomes the best prospect in the system as soon as he starts pitching. Now, at pick 84, some player has fallen way too far. Let's say, for sake of argument, it is someone like Toussaint. This is not a crazy notion as Lance McCullers Jr., a contender for a top 3 pick a few years ago slipped into the supplemental. Third round is still quite a few picks from where McCullers was taken, but hear me out. The Mets have a million to spend on top of the third round bonus (high 6 figures). You throw 1.75 million at Toussaint to get him to skip college ball and join a system that has produced some of the better pitchers in baseball over the past couple years.

--SG

11 comments:

Thomas Brennan said...

Great analysis, Stephen. I have not follwoed the draft mix closely enough (if it weren't for Mack's updates, I'd know none of these guys, so it is all appreciated. I like your thoughts and projections. I cry often over spilt milk, ans as such, I also cry over losing the 7th pick by winning last season's last game and slotting 10th instead. Hopefully we do just as well at 10 as at 7.

John Zozo said...

From what I have read about these players I am hoping they get Zimmer as well, but wood love if Jackson fell to us more so. Like u said Zimmer is an all around player and that's what they need at Citifield.

Craig Brown said...

Stephen

What happened to Michael Gettys? Guy fell off the map....At this point he must be considering going to college unless someone offers him over slot..

At this point i'm hoping for Zimmer or Newcomb, and I hope they stay away from Comforto..

Steve from Norfolk said...

Every might I get on my knees with my Alfonzo jersey on, face Cooperstown, and pray that Trea Turner is available for the 10th pick in the draft. The Mets will not give Matt Reynolds a chance, no one anywhere close to ML is close to a standout at SS, and Turner could be standing in the middle outfield at Citi by Opening Day 2016. We're not going to get a decent SS any sooner than that. Can you see us getting a ML ready SS any sooner? I can't. Not without spending some money or getting rid of other players we need.

Steve from Norfolk said...

Excuse me, I forgot something.

Getting another SS would let us move Flores or Tejada to 2nd, move Murph back to 1st, where he was quite good also, and move Duda, if he can't get his bat started.

Michi L. said...

I would be pleased with either one of Zimmer, Turner or Newcomb. Just hope they stay away from Conforto. For me you have to get something better than him with a #10 pick, espcially in this years draft

Mack Ade said...

Nell Dar · Works at New York City Department of Education
Iactually think fans would rejoice for such a bold move. Half of the Mets fans wanted us to draft Giolito, so I think there would be a positive reaction. I follow the draft closely and my top 6 wish list would go like this...

ALex Jackson (highly unlikely, but crazier things have happened)
Brad Zimmer
Jeff Hoffman
Trea Turner
Michael Conforto
Sean Newcomb

Mack Ade said...

Richard Jones · Teacher at North Forney High School

I disagree with your comment on the reaction Mets fans would have if they draft Hoffman. The fans who do follow the draft know that whoever they pick is not going to fix the current problems the Mets have. We can't wait 5 years for Gordan or even 2 years for Turner to fix the shortstop problem. The Mets are going to have to trade or go through free agency to fix that problem. Profar or Saldinas from the Rangers would be a good place to start looking. The Rangers need pitching with all the injuries they had..

I don't want the Mets to take the safe pick. Some one who is low risk but low ceiling. I don't want a player who will likely be a good platoon plyer from our first round pick. I want someone who has a chance to be a star even if it involves a risk.

I do agree that by picking Hoffman the Mets will be able to get a better pick on their next pick but it will not be a Toussaint. If Toussaint falls past the first round it is because he is asking for more than say what is slotted for the 15th pick. The 1.75 will not be enough. There likely will be true 2nd round picks that fall and the Mets will be in the position to pick one of those.

Of the players who could be available I would like to see the Mets pick in this order
Hoffman, Newcomb, Beede.

The Mets seem to be much more successful when drafting pitching vs. drafting position players. Draft what you are in a better position to develop. Players like deGrom and Montero are proving that they can be successful in the big leagues. They will have a need to move some pitching at the deadline and the Mets will need to replace them.

The other thing is it is wrong to compare Hoffman to Harvey. Even if Hoffman wasn't injured he likely wouldn't become a Harvey.

Mack Ade said...

I do this 'for a living'.

The best pick that will be available (Jackson will be long gone) to the Mets will be Hoffman, but Alderson won't have the stones to pick someone undergoing TJS. He just won't do it.

I would dance in the halls if he did.

I still would go college pitcher though Kyle Freeland now looks like he'll be gone also.

That leaves either Aaron Nola or Tylle Beede

Michi L. said...

Mack its obvoiusly that Hoffmann would be an absolute coupe but its not going to happen

Stephen Guilbert said...

Thank you for all of the comments, everyone, and I apologize for the delay in responding to them.

Mr. Jones, I like your analysis and hope that you are correct about the fan base reaction to Hoffman. It's scary to think about what the pitching could look like once he, Harvey, Thor, Montero, Matz (and on and on and on) are all ready and contributing.

Steve, I do not think Turner would be long to the bigs. I have both him, Conforto, and Zimmer as late-2015 call-ups. The problem is, if you want to contend in 2015 with Harvey back and Syndergaard, Montero, Wheeler, Gee/Niese etc. in the rotation, you need a new shortstop and Turner probably won't be ready for the start of the season and you certainly don't want to rush whomever you draft and invest that much money in.

Craig, Gettys definitely did fall. A lot of scouts simply had concerns about his offensive profile and slick defenders in high school just don't get drafted all that often. I still have him as one of the top "tools" players in the draft. I see no scenario in which the Mets have a chance to draft him as they won't reach at #10 and he won't be around by pick 84.

Stay tuned, folks. The next week should be very interesting. Thanks, as always, for reading.

-Stephen

Mack's Mets © 2012