5/26/14

Morning Report – May 26th – Collette-Chat, Soup, Lucas Duda, 100 Pitches


        




Coming Later Today –

                10 am – Stephen Guilbert - Who The Mets Will Draft #10 Overall

                12 noon - Craig Mitchell - Stephen Drew and Ike Davis

                3 pm - MLB Pipeline – Mock
            
               4 30 pm - 2015 Draft Profile  -  RHP  - James Kaprielian  -  UCLA
            
                6 pm - Tyler Kolek, Jack Flaherty,  Zech Lemond, Carson Baranik, Ti’Quan Forbes



The White Sox have outrighted Frank Francisco to Triple-A Charlotte



Collette-Chat -

Comment From Sagar - thoughts on Granderson ROS? He’s been playing a lot better as of late

Jason Collette: He’s a veteran and is stable – the home/road stuff is overblown.

Mack – I think that, if you get past the contract thing, that Granderson is far from the worst problems on this team.He’s always going to strike out more than you like, but, on this team, he will easily lead them in home runs (especially until they get a real slugger in their lineup). This is a guy all Mets fans need to get past. No other team is ever going to touch this contract so he’s a Met for life. Thanks Sandy.

Comment From Maddie - Some say that NYM’s Campbell is the next Zobrist. Your thoughts?.

Jason Collette: that’s a loose restatement of the original article, but the skills are intriguing enough for a 10 team NL pickup or a 15 team mixer.

Mack – Please don’t make the mistake of thinking that Campbell is going to average 20 home runs a year in the majors. He’s versatile and will make a wonderful utility player on a veteran team that needs someone to help when others need a day off. He’s not a starter… even on the Mets.

Comment From El Conquistador - Concussion aside, Travis d’Arnaud has been AWFUL. I thought this guy was a hitter. Can he turn things around?

 Jason Collette: Shocking that a guy who put up big numbers in tremendous hitting parks is struggling to hit in a pitcher’s park. Stunned, I tell you!

Mack – This is Jason doing his best wise-ass Klaw imitation.
This whole d’Arnaud thing has a lot of heads shaking in both baseball and, particularly, the Mets. No one thought this guy would be a bust, no less live on the DL.

It looks like he will be back by the end of this month and I’m sure he has, at least, the rest of this season to prove that the trade that brought him here was a mistake, but it will interesting to watch how long Sandy Alderson allows d’Arnaud’s rope to extend. Yes, he’s a Sandy-guy, but so is Kevin Plawecki.


I do have to say that I’m beginning to firmly believe that Lucas Duda will not be enough until (hopefully) Dominic Smith develops.

      (by the way… Smith has adjusted very well to A-Ball and is showing he is very capable at playing at this level at his young age. All this means is his conservative ETA remains for opening day 2017, though he could break through earlier)

I do most of this by gut-feel, but it’s good to have people like Thomas Brennan around on this site to point out the stat side of some of these players. Duda really just doesn’t step up when needed.

The 2014 version of this team has begun to develop a pretty decent 2-3-4 of Daniel Murphy, David Wright, and Curtis Granderson, but the true disappointment in this lineup are the next two guys, Chris Young and Duda.

Kendrys Morales will become available in June. Any other team would take a close look at him regardless of who his agent is. Of course Sandy won’t.



Michael Scannell said – 

        I know he's only been up for a bit, but does anyone think he could slide over to 1B still?  I don't think Duda is the answer, even as a bridge to Smith. I'd like to keep Flores around but the Mets also need a SS and I don't think it's him. I'd like to keep Flores around but the Mets also need a SS and I don't think it's him. I'm still on the trade for Nick Franklin and Joc Pederson train.  I'd go with:  SS Franklin  LF Pederson  3B Wright  RF Granderson  1B Flores  2B Murphy  CF Lagares  Ca CATCHER  And be happy with that to ride out the year.

Mack answered – Nobody, I repeat, NOBODY ever mentions Flores anymore as a potential 1Bman. His Mets future is as a SS or nothing. Your real bust this year is going to be anybody who's last name is Young.

Michael Scannel – Then, both Youngs have to go. If Flores is SS or nothing I think he's trade bait.



Top College Fastballs –

            1. Nick Burdi, RHP, Louisville
            2. Michael Cederoth, RHP, San Diego State
            3. Brandon Finnegan, LHP TCU
      4. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, East Carolina
            5. Tyler Beede, RHP, Vanderbilt
            6. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford
            7. Carlos Rodon, LHP, North Carolina State
            8. Chris Oliver, RHP, Arkansas
            9. Nick Howard, RHP, Virginia
            10. Mason McCullough, RHP, Lander  -  more…  http://throughthefencebaseball.com/2014-mlb-draft-best-tools-college-pitchers/43027#JYFjVx6w6bWAbhip.99


One last thought…

      I’ve been following these games, pitch by pitch, and there’s an underlining problem with the Mets pitching staff that no one seems to have noticed.

      We all judge an outing with 100 pitches. If you can’t reach 100, you’re not going to have much success, right?

      Well, what if most of your starters reach 100 but do so far before the end of the 7th or 8th inning?

      For some reasons, the Mets have developed two problems… one, their end up in the 100 pitch range by the end of the 6th inning, and two, their next inning is just a flat out bust.

      Why are ALL the Mets pitches throwing too many pitchers too early?

      Until the first game of yesterday's doubleheade.

      Rafael Montero threw 113 pitches over six innings. He gave up only two hits and struck out 10. The only downside was the fact that he had to leave the game with it being tied and he, like so many Mets pitches before him, never worked into the seventh inning.

      I do not have the answer to this but it's worth a discussion.
           



15 comments:

Unknown said...

Can we send down Duda already and bring up Dykstra?

Craig Brown said...

Morning John,

If you don't like Lucas Duda...then you won't like Alan Dykstra either...

His numbers are mostly Vegas Factor...Noah Syndergaard is better than a 4.00 era, and Alan Dykstra is not a .300 hitter...

This is why the Mets desperatly need to get their AAA affiliate out of there...

Mack mentioned Montreal yesterday, i've written this before...the Mets should go hard after Montreal as the home of their AAA club...This would be a big win for everybody involved...Fred should get on the phone with Selig and make this happen.

Mack Ade said...

Craig -

No, I don't thin Dykstra is the answer either.

Tom Brennan said...

Hi Craig

I don't think Allan Dykstra is the answer. I'd like Duda to be. But something is just wrong with his mental approach or something - too tentative, too prone to failure by getting in bad counts. With as many guys have gotten on ahead of him this year, Lucas should have 30 RBIs.

Dykstra as a part time 1B might make sense as a minor upgrade. Just hit vs. some righties - no lefties. Platoon him with Campbell. Dykstra strikes out a lot, but gets on a lot - and he knocks in a lot, so maybe he handles pressure spots better than the Luke Dude.

Lucas can make us all look like fools - go on a tear, Lucas. Swing away.

Someone else posted Campbell is a utility guy and won't hit 20 HRs. I agree with the latter, it is up to him to show if he can be more than a utility guy - gets on a lot, decent # of extra base hits, does not strike out like others - which is a nice thing when you need to advance a runner - another guy strikes out, and he makes contact and the runner advances. Strikeouts are a big reason this team is floundering as hitters.

I'd give Flores 200-300 at bats as a SS, see what he does offensively. First base is still in my opinion a possibility for him, next year, should he show he can hit but not enough to play SS defensively. A subpar SS fielder could make a great defensive 1B. Unless another Jose Abreu shows up - and they bid on him.

Unknown said...

Dykstra had great numbers in Binghamton as well, so it might not just be the thin air in Vegas. I think of fresh start at first base is needed. We all know they won't spend money on Kendry Morales, so what are our other options?

Craig Brown said...

Morning Guys

Thomas--I'm with you that Duda isn't a great first baseman...But in my opinion he's better than Dykstra...I try to think about it like this--If Lucas Duda spent two months in Vegas I would expect him to hit .315-.320 and drive in a ton of runs. its just a hitters paradise out there...It makes everybody look like a legit hitter, and all the pitchers look lost...Even Harvey put up pedestrian numbers in his time there...

In my opinion the lineup that gives this team the best chance to win every night would be

2b young jr
c d'arnaud
1b murph
3b wright
lf grandy
ss flores
rf young
cf lagares

Craig Brown said...

John

I just don't consider a 26 year old hitting .270 in AA Great...

Ernest Dove said...

Because the Mets major league and aaa roster are so filled with aaaa players, I think its best to leave Duda where he is as our starting 1B......
As for Campbell, maybe he's the next super sub.....or maybe he's the next josh satin, who stops hitting in less at bats his second year.

Tom Brennan said...

Chris Young may yet prove to us he is not the .200 hitter he was in 2013 and is in 2014, The Mets seem willing to give him numerous chances to turn it around. But he may well be a .200 hitter. And if not, what will he hit in his next 300 at bats - .220?

I'd have no hesitation to give his job to Campbell, or even to Brown, who I feel if he played every day would do better, perhaps significantly, than C Young. I could see Brown in 300 at bats hitting 15 HR, 20 doubles and .230 - .245. I'd take it. I could see Campbell in the same # of at bats hitting .260, 15 doubles, 7 HR and a bunch of walks and a low # of Ks. I'd take that,

No way to predict the future, so I could be dead wrong, but my guess is C Young would be worse than Brown or Campbell with extended playing time.

If they keep Duda, if I were the Mets, I'd tell him to be much more aggressive in hitters' counts, and I would sit him vs. ALL lefties and against any righties he's unduly struggled against, and play Campbell in the other games.

Mack Ade said...

Right now, there is no solution to the 1B problem.

Platoon Duda and Campbell for now.

Tom Brennan said...

I think Montero will often go more than 6 innings. He had to be a victim of his own success yesterday. Strikeouts require lots of pitches. 10 Ks for him has to be an aberration, and I think (as opposed to, say, a Wheeler) Rafael and Jacob will get their counts down soon, letting them go 7. With Gee having a setback, we will have time to find out.

Odd is the frequency of both TJS and the abdominal muscle pull in today's game (the latter injury a Met favorite).

Unknown said...

Duda has been given so many chances and has proved nothing, I like a Dykstra/ Campbell platoon as it can't be worse than what Duda is providing us. Besides his ineptitude do hit yesterday he wasted about 10 or so more pitches from Montero when he didn't come close to catching that foul ball.
Also I would of brought up Brown today instead of MDD. I believe he is hitting better at AAA right now.

Steve from Norfolk said...

I think you're running into a common problem that young pitchers often have - everybody's going for K's. If you're going for K's, you're going to throw more pitches. Our only real groundball pitcher is Gee, and he's getting K's. The hitters are trying to hit his low stuff, but he's pitching so well they can't get a bat on it. Niese does pretty well with grounders, too. Why? Experience.

Craig Brown said...

Rubin just reported that Syndergaard is headed to AAA DL list...has an elbow issue that in the past has been a precursor to TJS.



Bill Metsiac said...

Maybe it's just my memory or what's left of it, but I can't recall any Japanese ML pitchers having TJ surgery, or even extended DL stints.

Unless it is just my memory failing, why is this so? Has MLB looked into it and tried to find the reason? Is it the training there? Their 6-man rotations? Genetics?