5/27/14

Stephen Guilbert - The Skinny on Draft Prospect OF Michael Conforto



More mocks within the past week have tied Oregon State outfielder Michael Conforto to the Mets than have not, so let's take a look at Conforto's skill set and what he could bring to the system.

Name: Michael Conforto
Date of Birth: 3/1/93 (age 21)
School: Oregon State University
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 211 lbs.
Class: Junior
Stats:
 - Freshman: .349/.437/.601, 13 homers, 76 RBI
 - Sophomore: .328/.447/.526, 11 homers, 47 RBI
 - Junior: .383/.535/.617, 7 homers, 55 RBI

High School: Redmond High School (Washington)
Previously Drafted: Not drafted out of high school.
Family: Mother was a two-time Olympic Gold Medalist in synchronized swimming. Father played football for Penn State.
Additional: Michael played both shortstop for his high school team and safety and quarterback for his football squad.

Defense: Conforto should be an average at best defender at the next level. His throwing arm is solid but the rest of his outfield game does not stand out. You draft Conforto for his bat and patience but can sleep comfortably knowing he will not cost you games with his glove either and might throw a baserunner or two out with his arm as well.

Consensus: Some consider Conforto as the college bat to draft in this class and the numbers he has put up in three years at Oregon State have put him in that conversation. Many have tied him to the Mets because he is extremely patient, hits a ton, and should be quick to the majors--three very attractive features of a prospective draft choice for New York. However, I am unsure the Mets value him higher than college players like SS Trea Turner or CF Bradley Zimmer who have more complete skill sets but not better pure hitting tools. It sure looks like the Mets are thinking college player at #10 and more likely a hitter than pitcher. You could do a lot worse than Conforto but I would rather Zimmer or Turner, if they are available. I also still have a feeling someone is going to fall further than they should. If Alex Jackson, Kyle Freeland, or Nick Gordon are on the board, Conforto never has a chance. You also cannot forget about the higher-risk projectable athletes like Michael Gettys and Touki Toussaint. Each of the first round picks since 2011 in Sandy's drafts have fit that bill, which leads me to believe that Conforto might not be the lock some experts think he is. The Rockies at #8 also like players like Conforto which would make him unavailable regardless.

Leave your thoughts in the comments below.

--SG

5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

My only qualms would be how many HRs would he hit. If he is not fast, nor a great defender, a high average power bat would be my idea of a top 10 pick. His HR #'s look a little low, so hopefully he is not warning track power. Guys either have real power or not - if he has it, I am on board.

John Skrynecki said...

Not a fan of Conforto. Like the bat but I think they can do better with the tenth overall pick. Much prefer Zimmer, Turner, or Newcomb.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Rich, I definitely like the way you think and would not be disappointed if they reached for Gatewood. He's one heck of a talent but there are enough concerns about him that make his projected selection from anywhere from #6 to the end of the first round.

I'm not a huge fan of Conforto but I wouldn't be crushed if we drafted him either. If you have Nimmo and Lagares roaming the outfield around him, his lack of speed won't matter nearly as much and his arm is good. I just think that if it comes down to Zimmer vs. Conforto we take Zimmer. I do like Newcomb as well and I don't really see what the huge difference is between him and Rodon but I'm no expert.

Mack Ade said...

Rich Heichel · Follow · Venice, California

I'd love the Mets to roll the dice and draft Gatewood. He's a tremendous potential bust, but you gotta go with the guy that could be a perennial power hitting all-star. A homegrown masher would be too good to be true. Also like Marcus Wilson. Watching his tape, you can easily recognize the Eric Davis comparison. Went to HS with Dominic Smith, maybe the Mets studied up on him, while scouting Smith?

Mack Ade said...

The Mets have looked at Wilson who is very raw but has all 5 tools