11/29/16

Tom Brennan - YANK, MET PROSPECTS BY THE NUMBERS

6 comments


Tom Brennan - YANK, MET PROSPECTS BY THE NUMBERS

Almost any true Mets a fan is concerned as to how the far more historically successful crosstown rivals, the Yanks, are doing compared to our Metsies.

One metric to focus on is:

How do the teams' top prospects compare? Whose are better?

Interestingly, according to MLB prospect rankings, the Mets have the only guy on both teams who graded out overall as high as a "60" on its 20 - 80 scale of ranking talent ...Amed Rosario, our future All Star shortstop.

After that, just going by the overall talent score assigned to each player, the Yanks have the Mets beat, hands down.

Of the Yanks' top 15 prospects, 6 were ranked an overall 55, while the others were ranked overall at 50.

After Rosario's 60 ranking, only the Mets' Dominic Smith rated a 55, so the Mets have 2 guys 55 or better vs. the Yanks' 6.

The Mets' top 15 prospects, besides Rosario and Smith, included 9 guys with a 50 aggregate score, and 4 guys with a 45 score.   

Overall, the top 15 Yanks averaged out to a 52 score, the top 15 Mets at 49.7, a significant disparity.  Since the grades increase in 5 point increments, 2.3 is the equivalent of a half grade higher for all 15 - very significant.

The Yanks have ARMS - they had one guy (Jorge Acevedo) who has been clocked at 103, two others at 99, one at 98, plus two more topping out at 96.  The Mets had Dunn and Szapucki at 98, and two Tommy John guys who can hit around 95 in Kay and Molina.  That's it for the Mets' top 15.

The Mets also had 3 shortstops in the top 15 with low power scores of just 35 ( Luis Carpio, Milton Ramos, and Andres Giminez, although Giminez will likely climb the power scale soon, as he will play as an 18 year old in 2017).

There were, to me, some oddities in MLB's scoring:

Gsellman, oddly ranked as low as 14th Mets prospect, received a 50 or 55 in each individual category, but was given an overall score of 45, so that low overall mark presumably is an error.  

Gavin Cecchini, he of the bucketload of errors, was rated a 55 as a fielder, which seems far too high.  

Wuilmer Becerra was rated a 55 in power but showed very little of same in 2016, so we'll see if that power surfaces in 2017.  Hope so.

And power hitting 1B Pete Alonzo got the lowest individual score of any of either team's Top 15 guys, with just a 30 in speed.  Go, Granny Go.  Alarmingly to me, David Thompson, slightly below the Mets' top 15, also rated a 30 on speed. Slow White Dude Syndrome, I guess, these guys are the next Ed Kranepool and Rusty Staub.  The manager won't be calling too many hit-and-trot plays for them, I guess.

Overall, given the lower overall score of the Mets' top 15, and the low power of certain prospects and lower velocity of Mets' pitching prospects, I would certainly trade the Mets' top 15 to get the Yanks' top 15.  Heck, I'd thrown in the Mets' 16 through 25 prospects to sweeten the deal...but I still don't think the Yanks would be interested.

Lastly, recall that Greg Bird and Gary Sanchez had very recently graduated from the Yanks' prospects list, and the conclusion is clear....the Yankees are stocked and determined to retake the town from the Mets, if not in 2017, then soon thereafter.  Can the Mets fend that off?  We'll see.

That said, overall, I do like our prospects.  We've seen worse.

Here are the links to the Mets' and Yanks' Top 30 prospects, per MLB, if you are so inclined as to peruse:

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=nym

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=nyy



6 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

Thanks for this post.

The draft builds future teams, but it has not been the cornerstone of what success the Mets have had over the past few years. I could write volumes (and maybe I will) about the dud drafts the Mets have had since 2000.

The other way to build for the future is to trade your aging stars to teams competing for a playoff slot for prospects and the Yankees have overwhelmingly beat the Mets in this category over the past three years.

I am not a big fan about where the Mets system stands right now, but the Yankees have proven you can turn this around with decent drafts and trades (Bruce?) for multiple prospects.

Thomas Brennan said...

Very true, Mack, and we can only hope our pitchers (like Harvey and Wheeler) fully rebound, so we have a beautiful choice to keep them or trade them for great prospects at the end of 2017.

Reese Kaplan said...

The Mets last traded Carlos Beltran who, at the time, was considered an aging star. They did it again with R.A. Dickey. The Beltran deal looks negative since Zack Wheeler has done his disappearing act but the Dickey deal (despite d'Arnaud's and Becerra's injuries) is still looking like a steal since it netted Noah Syndergaard.

Thomas Brennan said...

Reese, we can only hope for a miraculous comeback for Wheeler. As plan B, we still have Jeff Beck Wheeler, last time I looked :)

Eddie Corona said...

Tom I would love to read those volumes of duds...
I always love prospect talk

Eddie Corona said...

the beltran deal is not a negative... Wheeler got hurt but he was performing... all we need is One good season from him and his future is restored...

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