12/22/18

Reese Kaplan -- BVW's Bullpen Makeover Nearly Done



This past week the Mets reunited with talented but sometimes erratic reliever Jeurys Familia who is now no longer cast as “the man” but instead as “the setup man”.  He played this role last year in Oakland behind closer Blake Treinen who finished the year with a 9-2 record, 0.78 ERA, 38 Saves, a 0.83 WHIP and 100 Ks in 80.1 IP.  Wow!

Familia was not nearly as a strong.  In fact, his Oakland A’s tenure was at best solid but unspectacular.  He finished the year there appearing in 30 games spanning 30.1 IP.  He delivered an impressive 11.5 Ks per 9 IP but also coughed up 4 BBs during 9 IP.  His ERA by his standards was a lofty 3.45 but that’s a testament to how good he’s been throughout his major league career with a 2.73 mark since debuting in 2012.

The 1-2 punch of newly acquired Edwin Diaz and former All Star closer Jeurys Familia is certainly as good as anyone in baseball can trot in from the bullpen, but is it enough?  Who else factors in to the Mets 2019 relief pitching plans?


The next name most people utter is multi-purpose pitcher Seth Lugo.  He’s done much better in the pen than he has as a starter and at times he seemed flat out dominant.  The whole spin-rate metric has been discussed to death.  His overall body of work is highly impressive.  He finished the season appearing in 101.1 IP having only given up 80 hits.  He struck out 9.1 per 9 IP while walking just 2.5.  His WHIP is an understandably terrific 1.076 and a season-long ERA of just 2.66. 


Earlier in the year when Jeurys Familia was unavailable and later when he was traded they attempted to make the long haired Robert Gsellman into a closer.  Early in the year he made it seem effortless, but he regressed, performed well, then regressed again.  The overall numbers were not good, with a 6-3 record and 13 saves standing out among otherwise pedestrian totals. 

Next come a slew of rookie or young pitchers who may or may not be ready to take the next step.  This group would include Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora and Tyler Bashlor. 

Having observed Smith in person a number of times in AAA, he’s definitely got the stuff.  The 24 year old for his entire minor league career sports at 1.99 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts per 9 IP and 2.8 walks over the same period.  So far he’s the best return of the 2017 sell-off which sent Lucas Duda to Tampa Bay for the young fireballer.  Fellow Las Vegas 51 Tim Peterson described Smith’s stuff as “electric.”  His first intro to the majors was a bit up and down, but over his first 27 games showed he was more hittable and less adept at Ks than he’d been in the minors.  However, barring unforeseen circumstances, you can write his name in ink for the 2019 pen.

Lefty Daniel Zamora came to the Mets in an exchange of lefties.  I can only guess the Pirates were enamored of the gaudy strikeout numbers Smoker provided because the pitcher they gave up the younger Zamora who had pitched to a sub 3.00 ERA and 10.8 Ks per 9 IP over the course of three minor league seasons.  Considering the Mets had DFA’d Smoker and the Pirates could have taken him for free had they simply waited.  Zamora was pretty good in his debut, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA with 16 Ks in 9 IP.  Given that he’s the only major league lefty with bullpen experience, he’s likely to be part of the roster as well.

Fireballer Tyler Bashlor may get to start the year in AAA.  He’s not yet appeared there, having skipped directly to the majors from AA.  He’s struck out as many as 15.2 per 9 IP, but, like many pitchers with the eye popping totals, he has a hard time with control. 

You have others who are on the periphery looking in, like winless Paul Sewald, soft-tossing Tim Peterson, and the hard throwing but enigmatic Jacob Rhame who can fluctuate in the minors from highly dominant to batting practice pitcher.  Throw sore-armed Bobby Wahl into that mix as well. 

So if you assume Diaz, Familia, Lugo, Gsellman, Smith and Zamora are a part of the pen, there’s certainly need for one more legitimate arm, preferably from the left side.  The names available are well known, including front line players like Zach Britton, setup guys and LOOGYs like Oliver Perez, Justin Wilson, Luis Avilan and Jerry Blevins.  Add one of this type of lefty and the pen may indeed be good to go. With the reverse platoon splits of some of the righties, you might get away with just one more lefty (which is one more than they had most of the year until the late season audition by Zamora).  Personally, I could live with one solid addition here and saving the limited funds to get a starting outfielder and perhaps another depth piece for the rotation should Jason Vargas pitch like, well, Jason Vargas.  

19 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

A much better pen than 2018. But adding at least one more legit arm is a must. Miller it should have been...but don't skimp on this one.

I think Familia's A' s ERA was boosted by one or 2 bad outings.

Last year, the Mets used over 20 guys out of the pen, so Bashlor will get his chance. But Rhame, Sewald and Peterson, if in the majors at all in 2019, should be used in mop up situations only. Bobby Wahl especially, and Mr. Hanhold too, could leapfrog those 3. Wahl was like a better version of Bashlor in the minors last year...low ERA and 73 Ks in 45 innings...but on the wild side.

Tom Brennan said...

I think now that the Mets are out of Vegas, they should hurry Kay and Peterson to AAA. The pen in Queens may need them by mid season. Time for them to grow up quick.

TP said...

Two quality additions are required to have a pen that can compete for the NL East.

Mike Freire said...

In my "spoiled three year old voice", I want Zach Britton and I want him now!

Kidding aside, can you imagine the back end of the bullpen with Familia and Britton setting up Diaz?

All it takes is some cash.......

Mack Ade said...

Tom -

"Miller it should have been."..

we doing Yoda speak this Christmas?

Tom Brennan said...

E.T. phone home, Mack!

Anonymous said...

thank god FOR REESE KAPLAN!!!!!!!!!!!!The mainstream papers should hire REESE KAPLAN!!!He knows writing about sports and self promotion!REESE KAPLAN!!!

Mack Ade said...

TPis correct but I'd be thrilled with one more Miller-like stud.

Good breakout Reese. You have this pen pegged.

Lastly, I hate when people want pitchers sped up. How often does that work?

Tom Brennan said...

Dwight Gooden came up pretty fast LOL

bill metsiac said...

What about signing a SP like Gio G, and making Vargas the veteran LHRP? He also could be used as a long man/spot starter.

Anonymous said...

Tyler Bashlor

The five relievers seem set now. I like Tyler Bashlor even though he skipped AAA. I prefer him over the other possibilities because he has an unabashed determination and drive, topped off with confidence. I don't know about a few of the others having what Tyler has. I don't want Olllie Perez or Jerry Blevins back. Once was enough for me.

On the Gregor Blanco acquisition. I really don't see him making this team out of spring training. His numbers are not that impressive. And he is older. Honestly, I'd give Tim Tebow a shot ahead of Blanco. See what he does in spring training then decide. Tim has a power stroke to him, he just has to hit more for average.

I like the notion of trading Travis d'Arnaud and/or Kevin Plawecki, but each for difference reasons. That I guess would leave either Nido or Mazieka as the backup catcher to Wilson Ramos, although both Mazieka and Nido probably need to play a lot somewhere to gel.

Anonymous said...

Predictions of some obviousness...

Yankees get Machado and definitely the Dodgers getting Harper. That's why the Dodgers probably cleared out both Puig and Kemp, to create salary for Bryce.

Are the Mets truly contenders in 2019?

Yes. I think that the Atlanata Braves and the Mets will battle it out for the playoff spot. Everyone is crowing about the Phillies, but if you study the Braves starting eight lineup and their homerun totals, along with the Braves starting pitching, Phillies are not actually better than NYM or Atlanta.

Robb said...

OAkland's team is constructed to make the playoffs. The mets are constructed for the playoffs. The mets are probably a better playoff team, bc of degrom, syndergaard, wheeler (last years version) and now this reasonably good bullpen if they can make the playoffs then most of the teams mentioned above. Can they get there? I dont know, but if they do, no team would want to play them.

Mack Ade said...

Exception to the rule

Anonymous said...

Bravo Reese Kaplan does it again .I think the Athletic needs a guy like REESE KAPLAN!!!!

Tom Brennan said...

Nimmo and McNeil in the playoffs? Cool.

Anonymous said...

Speaking Outloud

I still hope that the new GM (Brodie Van Wagon) explores some serious trades possibilities. Thera er many to explore I know, but heck why not.

How about this idea?

Mets need maybe one more OF and a new lefty starter. Toronto needs starting pitching galore to have any chance at all in their AL division.

Toronto Blue Jays' send to the Mets: Lefty starter Ryan Borucki, OF Billy Mckinney, and 3B/LF Bo Bichette to the Mets for something maybe like SP Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman, and 2B Andres Gimenez.

Purported Logic of Deal

The NY Mets have been waiting for Steven Matz to gel for what seems like an eternity or more. Nothing so far. It appears possible that Steven just needs a new address and some postcards. We all see his potential and skills and they are obvious, but that darn consistency thing keeps getting in his way. Mets need to start over with a new lefty starter or pray for rain.

Ryan Borucki is a lefty starter and is only 24. The Mets might benefit by getting younger even in the rotation. Ryan is a big (6'4") starter with MiLB career stats of 29-24, 3.32 ERA, 401 strikeouts in 431 innings of work, and a wholesome 1.17 WHIP. I don't think Ryan is done improving yet either.

Bo Bichette is the second biggest prospect the Blue Jays have after Vlad Jr. Bo can play middle infield, third base, and left field. The Mets currently have no big name left fielders in the MiLB works beyond Gator Tim Tebow, and at third base Todd Frasier's contract ends after this season, although either McNeil or Cano may be playing third very soon for the Mets.

Billy McKinney is the quiet horse in this package deal, but is along the inside track. Billy is 24 years old with solid hitting power game. He bats left handed and plays LF. Might fill in very nicely with this 2019 NY Mets team.

Toronto would get a solid middle infielder in Andres Gimenez. The Mets currently have no room for Gimenez and may not for awhile. IF one Mets middle infielder opening arose this 2019 season, I think Gavin Cecchini is their first call.

Robert Gsellman could still turn into a very suitable and dependable starter, but I doubt he gets that shot here as a Met.

Each team gets what they need. We'll see.

Anonymous said...

A False Sense of Security

A child's blanket you ask, "No, not that."

What often puzzles me is this, the constant assurance by the media baseball people that this 2019 NY Mets team will have the best rotation in all of the NL. My response is simply this, it could be I suppose, but what about the four and five starters here? Do their games not count as well? Last I looked they did and equally so too.

So what they heck am I saying here?

I am saying that despite the 2019 NY Mets one thru three outstanding ace-type starters (deGrom, Wheeler, and Sydergaard) the four and five starters here now (namely Matz and Vargas) do not excite me very much at all really. Why would I even suggest this you ask? Because I watched every single game of the 2108 NY Mets season, that's why, and my eyes were open most of that time too.

Both Steven Matz and Jason Vargas had their very good games and outings in 2018. But they also had way too many stinkers as well. Both Matz and Vargas are vulnerable to having lost games, games where a Mets fan has to simply dig in and bite the darn bullit. Painful games in other words, games that can cause bleeding to happen.

My question to GM Van Wagon: Can we not upgrade the four and five slots at least somewhat, so that the exploits of the one thru three starters are not erased by the four and five guys?

Maybe put Vargas into a long relief role, and use Matz as possible trade bait to somewhere else where he can start over with a clean slate.

Call me whatever, but I want the Mets to win a lot more games in 2019, than they we have since the 2015 season ended with a World Series loss.

I want to see the Champagne flow this year. I am very selfish I know!

Anonymous said...

Watching the NY...

Knickerbockers. Q: Can any NY sports franchise do anything correctly besides the NYY? Really. Not kidding here.

Can it be more obvious that Enes Kanter could use a little bit more powerforward rebounding help especially on the offensive boards where the Knicks could probably open up a car wash under their own offensive rim, since absolutely no one is ever their from the Knicks.

Three words...

Zion Williamson, Duke.

Then trade Pingas wherever. Let him break bones there for awhile.