12/19/18

Reese Kaplan -- One Year Stopgaps for the Outfield



Mets fans are all suggesting ways to enhance the centerfield position over what Juan Lagares would be expected to do if, by some miracle, he managed to stay healthy enough to complete an entire season.  The same folks who worry about him rightfully worry about free agent AJ Pollock who has also had a difficult time staying off the DL and who has seen his formerly world class baserunning ability become commendable but no longer scary to pitchers.  In fact, it was both his 2015 season and Lagares’ 2014 season that teased their respective teams to think they would be worthy to build around for the future.  Now Pollock wants to earn a $15+ million per year paycheck and Lagares will earn $9.5 million.  That’s a lot of cabbage for folks who can’t stay on the field. 

Others are in the camp that you get a star on decline like Adam Jones, thinking he would deliver for the Mets what Curtis Granderson did when he came on board.  The difference is that Granderson was coming off his last full season with the Yankees slamming 43 HRs.  Adam Jones delivered a paltry 15 for the Orioles last year and his last 30+ season was in 2013.  He earned $17.3 last year for Baltimore and for his age 33 season you can bet he’s looking for a multi-year deal somewhere.

One star player who actually holds the distinction of being the only major leaguer to have hit 35+ HRs each of the last five years is soon to be 38-year-old Nelson Cruz.  (I'll bet you thought it was Mike Trout!)  While the desire is to get younger and more athletic makes sense, there is merit to considering someone of his ilk for the vacant outfield position.  (He’s not exactly chopped liver, either, having hit 37 HRs and driven in 97 just last year at age 37). 

Some folks think Yoenis Cespedes will be back around the All-Star break.  Others think that in typical Mets luck he will miss most of if not all of the 2019 season.  Therein lies the reasoning why a one-year solution might be the way to go.  If the best happens and Cespedes returns on schedule, how nice would it be to have a depth piece like Cruz to come off the bench or to peddle to the AL at the break?  If he’s not ready, at age 38 a guy like Cruz is likely available on a one-year deal and he’ll be gone before Cespedes revs up for the final installment of his 4-year deal in 2020. 

Cruz is not the only player who might fit the bill as a one-year wonder.  Look over to the left coast where the Dodgers don’t even have Matt Kemp listed in the starting lineup yet he’s got one more year on his current deal.  He’s right handed and in 2018 hit 21 HRs and drove in 85 while batting .290.  He earns a lot -- $21.5 million to be precise – but perhaps the Dodgers could be enticed to take one of the Mets’ bad contracts such as Jason Vargas or Todd Frazier or Juan Lagares as part of the deal to bring down the price. 

Now to hear the Dodgers tell it, the man they really want to move is Yasiel Puig.  Besides having the dubious distinction of leading the league in Cuban outfielders whose name begins with the letter Y, Puig in RF would not be the worst thing for the Mets to consider.  He’s on the final year of his deal before becoming a free agent.  He currently earns $11.3 million – about what Kemp would cost if you dump a bad contract on the Dodgers.  In an average season he’s good for about .275/25/75.  The problem with the younger Puig is his maturity.  His ego could be a major distraction, if even for a single year. 

The Pirates’ Corey Dickerson is a bit less ideal as he is a left handed hitter, but he’s Arb 3 this year before becoming a FA in 2020.  Last season his power was down a bit with just 13 HRs but he did hit .300.  He’s crossed the 20 HR threshold three times in his career and sports a lifetime .284 AVG. 

We’ve heard the discussions about Nick Castellanos of Detroit who is in the same situation – final year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent.  To hear the reports in media the Tigers want a king’s ransom for the right handed slugger, but as a one-year rental they may find they are rebuffed in their quest to cash in big time. 

There are others available who will be free agents in 2020, but for reasons of salary or performance they may not be worth the risk.  This group would include three Yankees – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks. 

I’m not advocating any particular player for this need.  The question for today is what do you think about the approach of looking for a one-year solution knowing that Cespedes at some point must be part of the mix?

23 comments:

Viper said...

Reese,
Aside from Puig, none of the others make sense. I think he would be okay in NY as he would be playing for his next contract and trying to impress his new team.

I always wondered what a great defensive outfield it would be with Cespedes LF, Lagares CF and Puig RF. Great arms and range all around.

Do the Dodgers need a backup catcher?

bgreg98180 said...

Just say no to stop gaps.
Say yes to Harper.

Dallas said...

This is off topic a bit. You guys notice that a lot of our guys really want to be Mets? I don't know if this happens on every team but guys like Nimmo, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Flores, Familia, DeGrom seem to really bleed the blue and orange. Nimmo showing up to the press conference yesterday to show support I liked. I'm excited about what that kid might bring to the table next year. For all of the talk about Fernandez being drafted before him (I think he would have been a FA this year..) I think we did pretty well.

Lagares has always been pretty exciting to watch, especially that first year when he made one stunning play after the next. Seems like that all out play is what leads to most of his injuries. This does seem like a tough call on signing an OF when you have 3 of them and Ces coming back. Signing a guy that can play multiple positions might be the best move for versatility. Is McNeil really going to get some OF reps this Spring? A Zobrist like guy seems so valuable in this age where everyone is always getting hurt. If Marwin is can play the IF and OF that would be a pretty smart play.

Mack Ade said...

Dallas -

Frankly, I give a lot that credit to the Mets fans that trudge out to the stadium every night looking for a miracle.

Led by the 7lineArmy - The players love those guys.

Tom Brennan said...

Lots of good ideas - but maybe we can just all learn to speak Puig Latin.

Mack Ade said...

Reese -

One of our writers (you can figure this out) has a direct line to the people that surround Cespedes.

Yes, it is far too early to estimate if or when he would come back but the word from these people is yes, he will, strong as ever, around July.

If that's so, stop gap money might be the right thing here and go get ourself a ++ SP or RP.

Reese Kaplan said...

Off topic, but I just saw Phil Evans signed with the Cubs.

Reese Kaplan said...

Everyone poo poos the idea of Cruz who would cost the least in terms of dollars and term of the guys listed here simply because others at his advanced age who have worn a Mets uniform (Reyes, Gonzalez, Bautista, Loney, etc.) have not gotten it done. I repeat -- 37 HRs and 97 RBIs last year. Is it all going to fall apart in a few months?

bill metsiac said...

I'm all for getting a stopgap guy as insurance, but I'm not giving up on Lag. As of now, he's healthy and playing CF in the DR. And he was well over .300 when he kicked the wall this year.

Whoever the backup is, he should understand that he's not pushing any of our 3 (4 if McNeil works out) current guys out of a spot unless they tank or get injured.

Zozo said...

Reese i like Nelsons bat but worry about his defense. If they are gonn go cheap i would think about a Carlos Gomez return? He still has some speed and can play all 3 positions and hopefully a return can rejuvenate him as well.

I would also by low on Boxberger and Hunter Strickland for bullpen.

Also would like to get Kluber and/ or Greinke here.

I think with Arizona you wouldn’t have to Give up too much to take that contract off their hands. They would have to take the last years of Vargas, Frazier, Lagares and give them Giminez. So this year wouldn’t be an increase in payroll, a total wash. We are on the books for the last 2 years at 30 mil each year. I think he would do amazingly at pitchers paradise of Citifield compared to Arizona’s bandbox.
Kluber you would have to give up a whole lot, starting with Nimmo, but his contract is ridiculously affordable considering that Harvey got $11 mil with incentives for a year.
I would stack up the rotation and put Matz in bullpen.

Tom Brennan said...

"Zozo is on fire with the ideas already!" - Steve Somers.

Kidding aside, great out of the box ideas.

Some still talk about wanting a run at Harper - if that happens, the fences must come in, in both right and center, after 2019. No long warning track fly out allowed.

bgreg98180 said...

Reasoning against stop gap and for Harper.

1) It is very very very rare that a player of Harper's calibre becomes available at such a young age

2) Harper is better than Nimmo

3) Harper is better than Conforto

4) Harper is better than Cespedes

5) I don't have to mention Lagares, do I?

6) Conforto and Nimmo can cover Centerfield (other teams have succeeded in the playoffs with worse)

7) Even if Cespedes comes back (sorry Mack, an athlete's "people" are always going to think all will be just honky-dore) he will still be recovering his performance and stamina will be suspect.

8) the Metsbwill be looking to be able to move on from Cespedes as soon as possible anyway, definitely low chance of resigning

9) Who else will become available in the next 2 years that will be even close to Harper when Cespedes is gone?

10) Harper instantly transforms this lineup into a force to be reckoned with.

Imagine this pitching staff's performance feeling supported by such an offense.

11) If Cespedes does come back, the Mets will not suffer against American League teams when playing with a DH (including if the Mets make it to the World Series)

bgreg98180 said...

12) salaries will continue to increase for top talent. The next time a 26 year old perennial All-Star becomes available they will be looking to $10 million more per year.

Tom Brennan said...

Bob is spot on. Go for Harper.

Seattle Steve said...

Cruz is a DH plain and simple....sign good triple A player's for Syracuse...get a lefty fir the bullpen who can get righty outs... we have no outfielders in the pipeline so going for Harper should be on the table.

Mike Freire said...

Two long term pieces are Conforto (RF) and Nimmo (LF), so it would seem that CF is the position of need as we move forward.

Lagares is injury prone (which sucks because he is fun to watch) and will not be on the roster long term. Cespedes is basically
the same, but may have value to an AL club looking for a DH, which is likely his future as he ages.

Tough call because you have a short term time line (2019) and a long term time line to consider.

I think a stop gap is smart for 2019 and then focus on finding a good CF'er for 2020 and beyond?

Viper said...

Bob Gregory is right except it should be Manny Machado instead of Harper.

1. He is right handed
2. Can play 3B which is a position of need for the Mets. (I know he prefers SS) but eventually, that's where he will end up.
3. You can keep both Nimmo and Conforto in the lineup everyday and puts Frazier where he belongs, the bench.

Nimmo, Cano, Machado, Cespedes, Conforto, Ramos, Alonso. Rosario.

I can live with that.

bgreg98180 said...

I can definitely live with Machado.

I focus on Harper because,
1) the Mets do have infield options

2) the Mets upper minors is an absolute waste land in terms of outfield prospects.

3) unfortunately, I haven't seen even a glimpse of hope from the Mets that they have any interest in Machado

Tom Brennan said...

Machado wants Yanks. I think it would be great for the Mets to get Machado and move Rosario or McNeil to OF. It would be quite the offensive squad.

TP said...

Mets fans are trained to settle for less. Rather than settling on Harper or Trout, why doesn't Brodie go top shelf. We need a CF and another stick in the line up. Mike Trout, now he's the guy. Angels have no shot vs. Astros.

TexasGusCC said...

TP, the Angels say ok. They want Lagares, Plawecki, Mazeika, Syndergaard, Matz, and Lugo. Meaning, they want to plug several holes and build a pitching staff. Are you good with that?

bgreg98180 said...

Maybe a few tweaks to be negotiated, but that sounds like a conversation to engage in

bgreg98180 said...

Wait $33 million for this year and next.
Then trout is a free agent.
People think Harper's contract will be huge?

Trout's will eclipse Harper's.

More reason to focus on Harper