Reese Kaplan -- Baseball-Reference NOT Liking Mets

So a great many folks think I’m overly harsh in my assessment of the team.  Let’s try to use a more reasonable evaluation based upon some people with greater analytical abilities such as BaseballReference.com.

If this is the projected lineup going into 2019, then here are the numbers we can expect:

First Base

Dom Smith – 22/57/.210

Todd Frazier – 22/63/.216

Peter Alonso – no projection, but mine would be .235/30/82

Second Base

Robinson Cano – 16/60/.275

Shortstop

Amed Rosario – 10/46/.258 with 10 SBs

Third Base

Jeff McNeil – 7/30/.289 (but only expected to do that in 291 ABs, so you could roughly double that)

Catcher

Travis d’Arnaud – 8/28/.241 (but only expected to do that over 224 ABs)

Outfield

Brandon Nimmo – 14/47/262 with an OBP of .380

Juan Lagares – 5/21/.251 over 235 ABs

Michael Conforto – 25/74/.250

Starting Rotation

Jacob deGrom – 10-9, 2.76

Noah Syndergaard – 10-6, 3.21

Zack Wheeler – 9-8, 3.83

Steven Matz – 6-10, 4.19

Jason Vargas – 9-9, 4.65

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – 2-4, 3.03 and 30 saves

Jeurys Familia – 5-4, 3.52 and 14 saves

Seth Lugo – 5-4, 3.60

Robert Gsellman – 6-4, 4.29

Drew Smith – 2-2, .3.92

Daniel Zamora – 2-1, 3.90

So it would seem that in comparison to the baseball experts, my outlook for the team is positively rosy.  I think they greatly underestimated what Cano, Rosario and Nimmo will provide.  They’re slightly under on Conforto and McNeil.  They are probably on target with Frazier, Smith, Lagares and d’Arnaud.  On the pitching side of the ledger they appear to be wildly underestimating the results and the wins totals in particular are disturbing. 

Obviously although the Winter Meetings are over, it doesn’t mean the trading season and free agent signing period has ended.  Theoretically groundwork has been laid in person with a great many targets and there’s no reason to assume that if they never spoke to a player such as Luis Avilan it doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t.

So we’re back to the question of whether or not this team is ready to compete for the post-season?  Now, with BaseballReference.com’s analysis supporting me, take another look and tell me what you foresee for the 2019 season.  Even if the site’s glass half-empty view is way off base, let’s see what an realistic view might look like:

First Base

Peter Alonso –35/90/.260

Second Base

Robinson Cano – 25/75/.285

Shortstop

Amed Rosario – 20/64/.270 with 30 SBs

Third Base

Jeff McNeil – 18/70/.290

Catcher

Travis d’Arnaud – 18/65/.260

Outfield

Brandon Nimmo – 20/70/.275 with an OBP of .400

Juan Lagares – 8/40/.265

Michael Conforto – 30/85/.270

Starting Rotation

Jacob deGrom – 14-9, 2.35

Noah Syndergaard – 13-6, 2.89

Zack Wheeler – 12-10, 3.35

Steven Matz – 10-10, 3.49

Jason Vargas – 9-9, 4.65

Bullpen

Edwin Diaz – 2-4, 2.76 and 40 saves

Jeurys Familia – 5-4, 3.15 and 14 saves

Seth Lugo – 5-4, 3.50

Robert Gsellman – 6-4, 4.00

Drew Smith – 2-2, .3.50

Daniel Zamora – 2-1, 3.90

So these projections of my own are considerably better, but it still seems that there’s work to be done to improve the roster.  No one can guarantee that Juan Lagares and Travis d’Arnaud will actually stay healthy enough to produce at their levels. 

So again, with about $20 million to spend, how would you make it a stronger team more likely to ascend to the post-season?  I’m still serious about playing the tie a bad contract to a desirable resource game to free up some more money to address the needs properly.  Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas and Juan Lagares all fit into this $9 million+ salary dump picture.  If someone comes calling and wants a guy like Andres Gimenez then insist they take along one of this tragic triumvirate.  Then you get back both a player or players in return in the deal AND you gain some extra money for the next deal, be it now or at mid-season if indeed you are close to serious contention. 

If you want to spend what you have right now, I’m not a fan of going after Yasmani Grandal.  After pillaging the minor leagues, giving up another draft pick to sign him (not to mention the AAV of the contract and the term of it) wouldn’t seem terribly prudent.  I am also dead set against squandering $6 million per year or more on a guy with a career batting average in striking distance of Todd Frazier but without the power.  No Maldonado for me.  I’d sooner roll the dice on the no-compensation choice of Wilson Ramos and hope that half a season of him and half a season of d’Arnaud would be livable. 

As far as centerfield goes, you most definitely need a reinforcement there.  Even if Lagares miraculously stays healthy and maintains his new batting approach, they are down to three outfielders.  Adam Jones had an off year offensively and his CF days are pretty much over.  You could trot him out there a’la Curtis Granderson, but unless he’s willing to take a major pay cut on a very short term deal, move along. 

I’d be much more interested in acquiring the lefty Michael Brantley who made only $11.5 last season in Cleveland and is well known to manager Mickey Callaway.  Last year they trotted out Nimmo, Conforto and Bruce.  While the latter didn’t produce as desired, it wasn’t as if his left handedness was the problem.  I want teams to get out of this mindset that lefties can only hit righties and vice versa.  You face far more righties than you do lefties, so it would make sense to tip the scales in your favor with a lefty-heavy lineup.  I would then live with Brandon Nimmo or Michael Conforto in CF.

For the pen, yes, Andrew Miller would seem to be a primary target but then you go into the season with an injury-recovering high-priced player and Daniel Zamora from the southpaw side.  Might it make more sense to go after the healthier and cheaper Oliver Perez, Luis Avilan and/or Tony Sipp?

So now that you have the numbers, both pessimistic and realistic, are you optimistic?